Backtest History
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Every completed game graded live this season: the projection published before kickoff, the CFBD closing spread, and the final margin. Nothing is re-fit after a result is known. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | Memphis @ UNLV | 27–21 | -3.5 | -4.5 | +6.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Montana State @ Utah Tech | 54–0 | +22.2 | +32.5 | +54.0 | 31.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Southern Utah @ Montana | 21–28 | -6.2 | -15.5 | -7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Prairie View A&M @ Tarleton State | 30–49 | -12.2 | -19.5 | -19.0 | 6.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Jackson State @ Tennessee State | 26–24 | +15.0 | +12.5 | +2.0 | 13.0 |
| 2026 | 1 | Alabama A&M vs Howard | 24–31 | -3.4 | 0.0 | -7.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Hawai'i @ Stanford | 27–37 | -2.3 | -4.5 | -10.0 | 7.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | New Mexico State @ Florida State | 17–34 | -24.8 | -31.0 | -17.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Monmouth @ Tennessee Tech | 14–38 | -3.3 | -8.5 | -24.0 | 20.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | North Carolina Central @ Texas Southern | 30–42 | +3.4 | +10.5 | -12.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Abilene Christian @ Lamar | 14–21 | +1.2 | +7.5 | -7.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Eastern Kentucky @ Western Carolina | 21–45 | -6.0 | -3.0 | -24.0 | 18.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Samford vs North Alabama | 10–22 | -3.2 | -7.0 | -12.0 | 8.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Stephen F. Austin @ McNeese | 38–27 | +13.4 | +12.5 | +11.0 | 2.4 |
| 2026 | 1 | Stetson @ South Dakota State | 7–70 | -29.7 | -50.5 | -63.0 | 33.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | East Texas A&M @ Mercer | 15–23 | -14.8 | -22.5 | -8.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Sacramento State @ Eastern Michigan | 17–28 | +1.5 | -9.0 | -11.0 | 12.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Morgan State @ North Carolina A&T | 17–7 | +3.4 | +7.0 | +10.0 | 6.6 |
| 2026 | 1 | Bryant @ Stonehill | 24–6 | -7.2 | +4.3 | +18.0 | 25.2 |
| 2026 | 1 | Southeast Missouri State @ Indiana State | 23–21 | -4.3 | -2.5 | +2.0 | 6.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Bucknell @ Richmond | 14–35 | -6.9 | -12.5 | -21.0 | 14.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | VMI @ Idaho State | 10–38 | -19.8 | -34.5 | -28.0 | 8.2 |
| 2026 | 1 | The Citadel @ Wofford | 14–42 | -8.4 | -7.5 | -28.0 | 19.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Jacksonville State @ North Dakota State | 7–33 | -18.3 | -6.5 | -26.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Campbell @ East Tennessee State | 49–37 | -10.7 | -7.0 | +12.0 | 22.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona | 27–34 | -7.2 | -5.5 | -7.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | NC State @ Virginia | 8–34 | -3.3 | -4.0 | -26.0 | 22.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Lehigh @ Holy Cross | 35–10 | +12.0 | +14.0 | +25.0 | 13.0 |
| 2026 | 1 | San José State @ USC | 26–42 | -36.8 | -37.5 | -16.0 | 20.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | UC Davis @ Portland State | 31–24 | +15.7 | +25.5 | +7.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Southern vs Alabama State | 17–30 | -16.5 | 0.0 | -13.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Central Connecticut @ South Dakota | 20–59 | -10.6 | -21.0 | -39.0 | 28.4 |
| 2026 | 1 | North Carolina vs TCU | 15–10 | -15.7 | -7.5 | +5.0 | 20.7 |
| 2026 | 1 | Robert Morris @ Wagner | 28–7 | -5.8 | -5.5 | +21.0 | 26.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Idaho @ Cal Poly | 34–38 | -0.8 | +5.5 | -4.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Weber State @ Northern Colorado | 30–29 | -2.9 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | New Hampshire @ UAlbany | 14–28 | +5.7 | +10.0 | -14.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Rhode Island @ Merrimack | 34–7 | +10.7 | +20.8 | +27.0 | 16.3 |
| 2026 | 1 | Colgate @ Fordham | 24–14 | +1.9 | +8.5 | +10.0 | 8.1 |
| 2026 | 1 | William & Mary @ Villanova | 35–32 | -17.0 | -12.5 | +3.0 | 20.0 |
| 2026 | 1 | Marist @ New Haven | 21–22 | -2.0 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Long Island University @ North Dakota | 21–42 | -15.4 | -27.5 | -21.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Central Arkansas @ UT Martin | 36–24 | -3.5 | -3.0 | +12.0 | 15.5 |
| 2026 | 1 | Eastern Illinois @ Murray State | 28–14 | +3.9 | -4.5 | +14.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Gardner-Webb @ Austin Peay | 17–35 | -15.0 | -14.5 | -18.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Charleston Southern @ Lindenwood | 17–20 | -6.0 | -7.5 | -3.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Chattanooga @ West Georgia | 24–10 | -12.8 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 26.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Houston Christian @ SE Louisiana | 34–28 | -21.6 | -24.5 | +6.0 | 27.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2026 | 1 | Mississippi Valley State @ Nicholls | 10–44 | -14.2 | -28.5 | -34.0 | 19.8 |
| 2026 | 1 | Southern Illinois @ West Florida | 31–34 | +7.5 | +19.5 | -3.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line. Model is the pure projection, not the market-informed blend.