Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	15	Navy @ Army	17–13	-7.7	+7.0	+4.0	11.7
2021	14	Georgia vs Alabama	24–41	+3.9	+6.3	-17.0	20.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	14	Western Kentucky @ UTSA	41–49	+17.6	+3.3	-8.0	25.6
2021	14	Baylor vs Oklahoma State	21–16	-15.4	-7.0	+5.0	20.4
2021	14	Utah State @ San Diego State	46–13	-10.2	-6.5	+33.0	43.2
2021	14	Oregon vs Utah	10–38	-10.3	-3.0	-28.0	17.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	14	Kent State vs Northern Illinois	23–41	+15.9	+3.8	-18.0	33.9
2021	14	App State @ Louisiana	16–24	+8.9	+2.5	-8.0	16.9
2021	14	Houston @ Cincinnati	20–35	-14.3	-10.5	-15.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	14	Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest	45–21	-2.2	+3.5	+24.0	26.2
2021	14	Michigan vs Iowa	42–3	+16.6	+12.0	+39.0	22.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	14	USC @ California	14–24	-8.3	-4.5	-10.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Missouri @ Arkansas	17–34	-17.2	-14.5	-17.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Alabama @ Auburn	24–22	+8.6	+20.5	+2.0	6.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Florida State @ Florida	21–24	+2.5	-4.0	-3.0	5.5
2021	13	Georgia @ Georgia Tech	45–0	+41.0	+35.5	+45.0	4.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Kentucky @ Louisville	52–21	-10.8	-3.0	+31.0	41.8
2021	13	Texas A&M @ LSU	24–27	+9.1	+6.3	-3.0	12.1
2021	13	Ole Miss @ Mississippi State	31–21	-9.8	-2.0	+10.0	19.8
2021	13	Clemson @ South Carolina	30–0	+8.5	+11.5	+30.0	21.5
2021	13	Vanderbilt @ Tennessee	21–45	-25.5	-32.0	-24.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Charlotte @ Old Dominion	34–56	-22.5	-8.5	-22.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Florida International @ Southern Miss	17–37	-25.2	-14.5	-20.0	5.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic	27–17	+3.2	-3.5	+10.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Louisiana Tech @ Rice	31–35	-4.5	+4.0	-4.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Western Kentucky @ Marshall	53–21	+12.2	-0.8	+32.0	19.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	UTSA @ North Texas	23–45	+0.1	+8.5	-22.0	22.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	UTEP @ UAB	25–42	-13.3	-13.5	-17.0	3.7
2021	13	North Carolina @ NC State	30–34	-15.8	-6.0	-4.0	11.8
2021	13	Wake Forest @ Boston College	41–10	+6.0	+6.5	+31.0	25.0
2021	13	Miami @ Duke	47–10	+29.4	+20.5	+37.0	7.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Pittsburgh @ Syracuse	31–14	+11.5	+12.3	+17.0	5.5
2021	13	Virginia Tech @ Virginia	29–24	-5.6	-7.0	+5.0	10.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Notre Dame @ Stanford	45–14	+43.0	+20.8	+31.0	12.0
2021	13	Northwestern @ Illinois	14–47	-13.0	-7.0	-33.0	20.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Indiana @ Purdue	7–44	-31.5	-17.5	-37.0	5.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Iowa @ Nebraska	28–21	-13.4	-1.3	+7.0	20.4
2021	13	Maryland @ Rutgers	40–16	-10.2	-2.0	+24.0	34.2
2021	13	Ohio State @ Michigan	27–42	+15.2	+6.5	-15.0	30.2
2021	13	Penn State @ Michigan State	27–30	+10.1	+4.5	-3.0	13.1
2021	13	Wisconsin @ Minnesota	13–23	+13.6	+7.0	-10.0	23.6
2021	13	Army @ Liberty	31–16	+0.4	-3.0	+15.0	14.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Massachusetts @ New Mexico State	27–44	-6.7	-7.0	-17.0	10.3
2021	13	Texas Tech @ Baylor	24–27	-16.0	-14.0	-3.0	13.0
2021	13	TCU @ Iowa State	14–48	-12.2	-15.5	-34.0	21.8
2021	13	West Virginia @ Kansas	34–28	+12.4	+15.5	+6.0	6.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State	33–37	-18.7	-4.0	-4.0	14.7
2021	13	Kansas State @ Texas	17–22	+9.7	-3.0	-5.0	14.7
2021	13	South Florida @ UCF	13–17	-14.3	-17.0	-4.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Cincinnati @ East Carolina	35–13	+12.3	+14.5	+22.0	9.7

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.