Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2022	15	Navy vs Army	17–20	+3.1	+2.5	-3.0	6.1
2022	14	UCF @ Tulane	28–45	-8.5	-3.5	-17.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Clemson vs North Carolina	39–10	+14.7	+7.3	+29.0	14.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Kansas State vs TCU	31–28	-1.8	+1.0	+3.0	4.8
2022	14	Purdue vs Michigan	22–43	-23.2	-15.8	-21.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	North Texas @ UTSA	27–48	-15.0	-8.5	-21.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Toledo vs Ohio	17–7	-13.0	+3.5	+10.0	23.0
2022	14	Fresno State @ Boise State	28–16	-2.7	-3.0	+12.0	14.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Utah vs USC	47–24	+2.3	-2.8	+23.0	20.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	LSU vs Georgia	30–50	-13.0	-17.0	-20.0	7.0
2022	14	Coastal Carolina @ Troy	26–45	-16.1	-6.5	-19.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	Akron @ Buffalo	22–23	-0.3	-12.0	-1.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	14	FCS @ New Mexico State	3–65	-28.4	-31.5	-62.0	33.6
2022	13	Mississippi State @ Ole Miss	24–22	-2.5	-2.5	+2.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Auburn @ Alabama	27–49	-10.0	-22.0	-22.0	12.0
2022	13	Florida @ Florida State	38–45	-11.7	-10.0	-7.0	4.7
2022	13	Georgia Tech @ Georgia	14–37	-35.6	-36.5	-23.0	12.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Louisville @ Kentucky	13–26	+3.5	-3.5	-13.0	16.5
2022	13	Arkansas @ Missouri	27–29	+5.1	+3.0	-2.0	7.1
2022	13	South Carolina @ Clemson	31–30	-7.6	-14.0	+1.0	8.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	LSU @ Texas A&M	23–38	+18.9	+10.0	-15.0	33.9
2022	13	Tennessee @ Vanderbilt	56–0	+9.4	+14.0	+56.0	46.6
2022	13	Arizona State @ Arizona	35–38	-6.0	-4.0	-3.0	3.0
2022	13	UCLA @ California	35–28	+11.6	+11.5	+7.0	4.6
2022	13	Oregon @ Oregon State	34–38	-0.1	-1.0	-4.0	3.9
2022	13	Utah @ Colorado	63–21	+32.9	+30.0	+42.0	9.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	BYU @ Stanford	35–26	+2.9	+6.5	+9.0	6.1
2022	13	Washington @ Washington State	51–33	+1.9	+2.5	+18.0	16.1
2022	13	Baylor @ Texas	27–38	-13.0	-10.0	-11.0	2.0
2022	13	Iowa State @ TCU	14–62	-16.1	-9.5	-48.0	31.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Kansas @ Kansas State	27–47	-21.4	-12.0	-20.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Oklahoma @ Texas Tech	48–51	-8.5	+1.5	-3.0	5.5
2022	13	West Virginia @ Oklahoma State	24–19	+5.8	-5.5	+5.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Notre Dame @ USC	27–38	+3.6	-4.3	-11.0	14.6
2022	13	Army @ Massachusetts	44–7	+16.3	+20.0	+37.0	20.7
2022	13	New Mexico State @ Liberty	49–14	-14.8	-24.0	+35.0	49.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Nebraska @ Iowa	24–17	-18.5	-10.5	+7.0	25.5
2022	13	Illinois @ Northwestern	41–3	+11.2	+14.8	+38.0	26.8
2022	13	Minnesota @ Wisconsin	23–16	+1.0	-3.0	+7.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Purdue @ Indiana	30–16	+6.6	+10.0	+14.0	7.4
2022	13	Rutgers @ Maryland	0–37	-15.9	-14.5	-37.0	21.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Michigan @ Ohio State	45–23	-7.0	-9.0	+22.0	29.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Michigan State @ Penn State	16–35	-33.2	-19.0	-19.0	14.2
2022	13	NC State @ North Carolina	30–27	-2.3	-6.5	+3.0	5.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Syracuse @ Boston College	32–23	+5.3	+10.5	+9.0	3.7
2022	13	Wake Forest @ Duke	31–34	-5.6	+3.0	-3.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Pittsburgh @ Miami	42–16	+9.5	+4.3	+26.0	16.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Air Force @ San Diego State	13–3	+1.2	+2.0	+10.0	8.8
2022	13	New Mexico @ Colorado State	0–17	-14.6	-7.3	-17.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	13	Utah State @ Boise State	23–42	-17.3	-16.5	-19.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.