Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	15	Navy vs Army	11–17	-2.9	-2.0	-6.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	Oregon vs Washington	31–34	+22.7	+9.5	-3.0	25.7
2023	14	New Mexico State @ Liberty	35–49	-3.8	-10.5	-14.0	10.2
2023	14	SMU @ Tulane	26–14	+10.2	-2.5	+12.0	1.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	Louisville vs Florida State	6–16	-0.8	+1.5	-10.0	9.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	Oklahoma State vs Texas	21–49	-22.7	-14.5	-28.0	5.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	Michigan vs Iowa	26–0	+18.1	+21.0	+26.0	7.9
2023	14	Miami (OH) vs Toledo	23–14	-6.9	-7.0	+9.0	15.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	Boise State @ UNLV	44–20	+0.8	+2.5	+24.0	23.2
2023	14	Georgia vs Alabama	24–27	+4.7	+5.0	-3.0	7.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	14	App State @ Troy	23–49	+0.8	-5.5	-26.0	26.8
2023	13	Ole Miss @ Mississippi State	17–7	+12.0	+10.5	+10.0	2.0
2023	13	Iowa @ Nebraska	13–10	+3.4	-3.0	+3.0	0.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Missouri @ Arkansas	48–14	+22.0	+9.5	+34.0	12.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Alabama @ Auburn	27–24	+21.9	+14.5	+3.0	18.9
2023	13	Western Kentucky @ Florida International	41–28	+18.1	+11.5	+13.0	5.1
2023	13	Florida State @ Florida	24–15	+2.4	+6.5	+9.0	6.6
2023	13	Georgia @ Georgia Tech	31–23	+26.0	+24.5	+8.0	18.0
2023	13	Northwestern @ Illinois	45–43	+0.5	-5.5	+2.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Kentucky @ Louisville	38–31	-14.9	-7.5	+7.0	21.9
2023	13	Texas A&M @ LSU	30–42	-11.3	-10.5	-12.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Ohio State @ Michigan	24–30	-1.6	-3.0	-6.0	4.4
2023	13	Penn State vs Michigan State	42–0	+26.0	+21.8	+42.0	16.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Wisconsin @ Minnesota	28–14	+0.7	+2.3	+14.0	13.3
2023	13	Jacksonville State @ New Mexico State	17–20	-10.4	+0.3	-3.0	7.4
2023	13	Indiana @ Purdue	31–35	-10.9	-6.5	-4.0	6.9
2023	13	Maryland @ Rutgers	42–24	+4.8	+2.0	+18.0	13.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Middle Tennessee @ Sam Houston	20–23	+3.8	+3.5	-3.0	6.8
2023	13	Clemson @ South Carolina	16–7	+2.4	+7.5	+9.0	6.6
2023	13	Vanderbilt @ Tennessee	24–48	-27.2	-27.0	-24.0	3.2
2023	13	UConn @ Massachusetts	31–18	-4.1	-2.5	+13.0	17.1
2023	13	Liberty @ UTEP	42–28	+19.9	+17.5	+14.0	5.9
2023	13	Oregon State @ Oregon	7–31	-15.5	-14.0	-24.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Arizona @ Arizona State	59–23	+22.8	+12.5	+36.0	13.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Notre Dame @ Stanford	56–23	+30.4	+26.0	+33.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	California @ UCLA	33–7	-6.4	-9.5	+26.0	32.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Colorado @ Utah	17–23	-18.8	-21.5	-6.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Washington State @ Washington	21–24	-10.6	-15.5	-3.0	7.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Miami @ Boston College	45–20	+11.6	+10.0	+25.0	13.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Pittsburgh @ Duke	19–30	-9.6	-4.5	-11.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	North Carolina @ NC State	20–39	-8.0	+2.5	-19.0	11.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Wake Forest @ Syracuse	31–35	-3.8	-2.0	-4.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Virginia Tech @ Virginia	55–17	+1.1	+1.8	+38.0	36.9
2023	13	TCU @ Oklahoma	45–69	-11.3	-11.5	-24.0	12.7
2023	13	Texas Tech @ Texas	7–57	-12.6	-16.0	-50.0	37.4
2023	13	West Virginia @ Baylor	34–31	+12.8	+8.5	+3.0	9.8
2023	13	Kansas @ Cincinnati	49–16	+23.1	+7.5	+33.0	9.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Iowa State @ Kansas State	42–35	-13.0	-9.5	+7.0	20.0
2023	13	BYU @ Oklahoma State	34–40	-11.9	-16.5	-6.0	5.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Houston @ UCF	13–27	-26.8	-15.5	-14.0	12.8

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.