Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16 | Army vs Navy | 16–17 | -9.9 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | 15 | North Texas @ Tulane | 21–34 | +7.5 | +1.5 | -13.0 | 20.5 |
| 2025 | 15 | Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State | 19–15 | -3.7 | +3.0 | +4.0 | 7.7 |
| 2025 | 15 | UNLV @ Boise State | 21–38 | +7.4 | -6.0 | -17.0 | 24.4 |
| 2025 | 15 | BYU vs Texas Tech | 7–34 | -16.8 | -12.5 | -27.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | Duke vs Virginia | 27–20 | -9.0 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 16.0 |
| 2025 | 15 | Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan | 13–23 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -10.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 15 | Georgia vs Alabama | 28–7 | -2.7 | +1.5 | +21.0 | 23.7 |
| 2025 | 15 | Troy @ James Madison | 14–31 | -29.6 | -24.5 | -17.0 | 12.6 |
| 2025 | 15 | Indiana vs Ohio State | 13–10 | -2.3 | -3.5 | +3.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Missouri @ Arkansas | 31–17 | +5.6 | +4.5 | +14.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Alabama @ Auburn | 27–20 | +4.8 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 14 | Florida State @ Florida | 21–40 | +4.8 | +1.5 | -19.0 | 23.8 |
| 2025 | 14 | Georgia vs Georgia Tech | 16–9 | +17.6 | +16.5 | +7.0 | 10.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | Kentucky @ Louisville | 0–41 | -5.0 | +1.5 | -41.0 | 36.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Ole Miss @ Mississippi State | 38–19 | +16.3 | +7.5 | +19.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | LSU @ Oklahoma | 13–17 | -16.9 | -11.5 | -4.0 | 12.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | Clemson @ South Carolina | 28–14 | -13.3 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 27.3 |
| 2025 | 14 | Vanderbilt @ Tennessee | 45–24 | -3.6 | -2.5 | +21.0 | 24.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | Texas A&M @ Texas | 17–27 | +5.9 | +2.5 | -10.0 | 15.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | Iowa @ Nebraska | 40–16 | +10.9 | +5.5 | +24.0 | 13.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Oregon @ Washington | 26–14 | +2.0 | +6.5 | +12.0 | 10.0 |
| 2025 | 14 | Wisconsin @ Minnesota | 7–17 | +9.9 | +2.5 | -10.0 | 19.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | UCLA @ USC | 10–29 | -23.9 | -21.5 | -19.0 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | Penn State @ Rutgers | 40–36 | +20.6 | +14.0 | +4.0 | 16.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | Ohio State @ Michigan | 27–9 | +13.1 | +9.5 | +18.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Northwestern @ Illinois | 13–20 | -3.5 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 3.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | Maryland vs Michigan State | 28–38 | -15.5 | -4.0 | -10.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Indiana @ Purdue | 56–3 | +28.9 | +28.5 | +53.0 | 24.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Oregon State @ Washington State | 8–32 | -31.0 | -14.0 | -24.0 | 7.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Boston College @ Syracuse | 34–12 | +5.2 | +3.0 | +22.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | SMU @ California | 35–38 | +29.6 | +13.5 | -3.0 | 32.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | Wake Forest @ Duke | 32–49 | +8.9 | -2.5 | -17.0 | 25.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | Miami @ Pittsburgh | 38–7 | +1.4 | +6.5 | +31.0 | 29.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | North Carolina @ NC State | 19–42 | -12.2 | -7.0 | -23.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Virginia Tech @ Virginia | 7–27 | -14.7 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Notre Dame @ Stanford | 49–20 | +26.9 | +32.5 | +29.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Arizona @ Arizona State | 23–7 | -0.5 | +2.0 | +16.0 | 16.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | Houston @ Baylor | 31–24 | -4.4 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 11.4 |
| 2025 | 14 | UCF @ BYU | 21–41 | -26.2 | -17.5 | -20.0 | 6.2 |
| 2025 | 14 | Utah @ Kansas | 31–21 | +21.8 | +10.0 | +10.0 | 11.8 |
| 2025 | 14 | Colorado @ Kansas State | 14–24 | -32.8 | -16.5 | -10.0 | 22.8 |
| 2025 | 14 | Iowa State @ Oklahoma State | 20–13 | +13.8 | +14.0 | +7.0 | 6.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Cincinnati @ TCU | 23–45 | -1.9 | -3.0 | -22.0 | 20.1 |
| 2025 | 14 | Texas Tech @ West Virginia | 49–0 | +23.2 | +24.5 | +49.0 | 25.8 |
| 2025 | 14 | UTEP @ Delaware | 31–61 | -0.9 | -4.5 | -30.0 | 29.1 |
| 2025 | 14 | Florida International vs Sam Houston | 56–16 | +23.7 | +10.5 | +40.0 | 16.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Western Kentucky @ Jacksonville State | 34–37 | +1.9 | +1.5 | -3.0 | 4.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | Kennesaw State @ Liberty | 48–42 | +2.0 | +2.5 | +6.0 | 4.0 |
| 2025 | 14 | Louisiana Tech @ Missouri State | 42–30 | -1.2 | -2.5 | +12.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.