Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	6	West Virginia @ Baylor	20–45	-3.5	-1.0	-25.0	21.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Oklahoma vs Texas	55–48	-2.7	+4.0	+7.0	9.7
2021	6	TCU @ Texas Tech	52–31	+3.5	+2.5	+21.0	17.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Houston @ Tulane	40–22	+22.8	+6.5	+18.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Temple @ Cincinnati	3–52	-28.3	-30.0	-49.0	20.7
2021	6	East Carolina @ UCF	16–20	-7.1	-10.0	-4.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Memphis @ Tulsa	29–35	+2.8	-3.0	-6.0	8.8
2021	6	SMU @ Navy	31–24	+9.1	+13.5	+7.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan	12–13	+3.6	+2.5	-1.0	4.6
2021	6	Ball State @ Western Michigan	45–20	-19.1	-12.5	+25.0	44.1
2021	6	Northern Illinois @ Toledo	22–20	-11.9	-13.0	+2.0	13.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Buffalo @ Kent State	38–48	-0.2	-7.0	-10.0	9.8
2021	6	Akron @ Bowling Green	35–20	-17.1	-14.0	+15.0	32.1
2021	6	Central Michigan @ Ohio	30–27	+3.7	+5.0	+3.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State	52–20	+34.4	+20.0	+32.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Georgia Southern @ Troy	24–27	+3.6	-5.5	-3.0	6.6
2021	6	Georgia State @ UL Monroe	55–21	+13.0	+16.0	+34.0	21.0
2021	6	South Alabama @ Texas State	31–33	+11.5	+4.0	-2.0	13.5
2021	6	Stanford @ Arizona State	10–28	-13.9	-13.5	-18.0	4.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	Oregon State @ Washington State	24–31	+13.0	+4.0	-7.0	20.0
2021	6	UCLA @ Arizona	34–16	+20.8	+16.0	+18.0	2.8
2021	6	Utah @ USC	42–26	-7.7	-3.0	+16.0	23.7
2021	6	Boise State @ BYU	26–17	-7.1	-6.0	+9.0	16.1
2021	6	Wyoming @ Air Force	14–24	-11.1	-5.5	-10.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	San José State @ Colorado State	14–32	-11.2	-3.5	-18.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	6	New Mexico @ San Diego State	7–31	-19.1	-19.5	-24.0	4.9
2021	6	New Mexico State @ Nevada	28–55	-20.7	-28.5	-27.0	6.3
2021	5	Ole Miss @ Alabama	21–42	-5.5	-15.0	-21.0	15.5
2021	5	Arkansas @ Georgia	0–37	-14.1	-16.5	-37.0	22.9
2021	5	Florida @ Kentucky	13–20	+16.3	+7.5	-7.0	23.3
2021	5	Auburn @ LSU	24–19	-2.8	-3.0	+5.0	7.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Tennessee @ Missouri	62–24	-1.1	-2.5	+38.0	39.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Troy @ South Carolina	14–23	-7.1	-6.5	-9.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Mississippi State @ Texas A&M	26–22	-9.0	-7.0	+4.0	13.0
2021	5	UConn @ Vanderbilt	28–30	-5.4	-14.5	-2.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Florida International @ Florida Atlantic	21–58	-11.9	-10.5	-37.0	25.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Marshall @ Middle Tennessee	28–34	+6.5	+11.0	-6.0	12.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Old Dominion @ UTEP	21–28	-3.7	-5.5	-7.0	3.3
2021	5	Southern Miss @ Rice	19–24	-0.7	-1.3	-5.0	4.3
2021	5	Charlotte @ Illinois	14–24	-10.3	-10.0	-10.0	0.3
2021	5	Louisiana Tech @ NC State	27–34	-23.9	-17.8	-7.0	16.9
2021	5	Liberty @ UAB	36–12	-3.1	-3.0	+24.0	27.1
2021	5	UNLV @ UTSA	17–24	-20.9	-21.5	-7.0	13.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Western Kentucky @ Michigan State	31–48	-12.6	-10.5	-17.0	4.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Virginia @ Miami	30–28	-14.1	-3.5	+2.0	16.1
2021	5	Boston College @ Clemson	13–19	-5.5	-14.5	-6.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Syracuse @ Florida State	30–33	+7.4	-5.5	-3.0	10.4
2021	5	Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech	52–21	+1.8	+3.0	+31.0	29.2
2021	5	Duke @ North Carolina	7–38	-14.0	-19.5	-31.0	17.0
2021	5	Louisville @ Wake Forest	34–37	-8.8	-7.0	-3.0	5.8

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.