Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7 | Old Dominion @ Georgia State | 21–14 | +3.6 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | App State @ Louisiana | 24–34 | -12.6 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | 7 | Southern Miss @ UL Monroe | 21–38 | -18.1 | -4.5 | -17.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Arkansas State @ Texas State | 9–41 | -15.6 | -13.5 | -32.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Miami (OH) @ Eastern Michigan | 38–14 | +1.0 | +3.0 | +24.0 | 23.0 |
| 2024 | 7 | Akron @ Western Michigan | 24–34 | -9.3 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 0.7 |
| 2024 | 7 | Ball State @ Kent State | 37–35 | +0.8 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 7 | Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green | 17–7 | +2.0 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | Toledo @ Buffalo | 15–30 | +11.0 | +10.5 | -15.0 | 26.0 |
| 2024 | 7 | Ohio @ Central Michigan | 27–25 | +5.3 | +3.0 | +2.0 | 3.3 |
| 2024 | 7 | Memphis vs South Florida | 21–3 | +8.3 | +10.0 | +18.0 | 9.7 |
| 2024 | 7 | UAB @ Army | 10–44 | -28.8 | -27.0 | -34.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | North Texas @ Florida Atlantic | 41–37 | +5.2 | +5.5 | +4.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 7 | UTSA @ Rice | 27–29 | -0.3 | +3.5 | -2.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Tennessee @ Arkansas | 14–19 | +8.9 | +14.0 | -5.0 | 13.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | UCF @ Florida | 13–24 | -5.7 | +1.0 | -11.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Auburn @ Georgia | 13–31 | -21.0 | -21.0 | -18.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Ole Miss @ South Carolina | 27–3 | +7.6 | +10.0 | +24.0 | 16.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | Missouri @ Texas A&M | 10–41 | +0.3 | -2.5 | -31.0 | 31.3 |
| 2024 | 6 | Alabama @ Vanderbilt | 35–40 | +19.3 | +23.0 | -5.0 | 24.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Indiana vs Northwestern | 41–24 | +21.3 | +12.5 | +17.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Iowa @ Ohio State | 7–35 | -23.5 | -17.0 | -28.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Michigan @ Washington | 17–27 | -10.6 | -1.5 | -10.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Michigan State @ Oregon | 10–31 | -21.6 | -22.5 | -21.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | USC @ Minnesota | 17–24 | +4.1 | +8.5 | -7.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Rutgers @ Nebraska | 7–14 | +1.3 | -6.3 | -7.0 | 8.3 |
| 2024 | 6 | Purdue @ Wisconsin | 6–52 | -12.2 | -12.0 | -46.0 | 33.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | UCLA @ Penn State | 11–27 | -22.4 | -29.5 | -16.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Temple @ UConn | 20–29 | -34.2 | -17.5 | -9.0 | 25.2 |
| 2024 | 6 | Massachusetts @ Northern Illinois | 20–34 | -14.4 | -14.0 | -14.0 | 0.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | Syracuse @ UNLV | 44–41 | -21.4 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 24.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | Boston College @ Virginia | 14–24 | -1.8 | -2.0 | -10.0 | 8.2 |
| 2024 | 6 | Miami @ California | 39–38 | +15.7 | +10.0 | +1.0 | 14.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | Clemson @ Florida State | 29–13 | +19.4 | +16.5 | +16.0 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | Duke @ Georgia Tech | 14–24 | -7.6 | -10.0 | -10.0 | 2.4 |
| 2024 | 6 | SMU @ Louisville | 34–27 | -0.7 | -6.5 | +7.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Pittsburgh @ North Carolina | 34–24 | +5.0 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Virginia Tech @ Stanford | 31–7 | +10.4 | +9.5 | +24.0 | 13.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Wake Forest @ NC State | 34–30 | -7.8 | -4.0 | +4.0 | 11.8 |
| 2024 | 6 | Texas Tech @ Arizona | 28–22 | +2.6 | -6.0 | +6.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Kansas @ Arizona State | 31–35 | -7.7 | -2.5 | -4.0 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | Baylor @ Iowa State | 21–43 | -17.1 | -13.0 | -22.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | West Virginia @ Oklahoma State | 38–14 | +2.9 | -2.5 | +24.0 | 21.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Houston @ TCU | 30–19 | -16.2 | -16.5 | +11.0 | 27.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State | 63–24 | +23.9 | +17.5 | +39.0 | 15.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Sam Houston @ UTEP | 41–21 | +10.2 | +10.0 | +20.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Navy @ Air Force | 34–7 | +23.3 | +10.0 | +27.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Utah State @ Boise State | 30–62 | -34.7 | -28.0 | -32.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Colorado State @ Oregon State | 31–39 | -13.5 | -10.5 | -8.0 | 5.5 |
| 2024 | 6 | Hawai'i @ San Diego State | 24–27 | +3.1 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 6.1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.