Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7 | Air Force @ UNLV | 48–51 | -16.1 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 13.1 |
| 2025 | 7 | New Mexico @ Boise State | 25–41 | -18.6 | -14.5 | -16.0 | 2.6 |
| 2025 | 7 | Fresno State @ Colorado State | 21–49 | +7.0 | +5.5 | -28.0 | 35.0 |
| 2025 | 7 | Utah State @ Hawai'i | 26–44 | +1.2 | +1.5 | -18.0 | 19.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | San Diego State @ Nevada | 44–10 | +12.2 | +6.5 | +34.0 | 21.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | San José State @ Wyoming | 28–35 | -0.8 | +1.5 | -7.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Southern Miss @ Georgia Southern | 38–35 | +6.9 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 3.9 |
| 2025 | 7 | UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina | 8–23 | -4.7 | +3.0 | -15.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | App State @ Georgia State | 41–20 | -8.6 | +3.0 | +21.0 | 29.6 |
| 2025 | 7 | Louisiana @ James Madison | 14–24 | -20.2 | -18.5 | -10.0 | 10.2 |
| 2025 | 7 | Old Dominion @ Marshall | 24–48 | +11.8 | +14.5 | -24.0 | 35.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Troy @ Texas State | 48–41 | -2.2 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | East Carolina @ Tulane | 19–26 | +0.1 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 7.1 |
| 2025 | 7 | South Florida @ North Texas | 63–36 | -0.2 | -2.5 | +27.0 | 27.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | UAB @ Florida Atlantic | 33–53 | -10.1 | -4.5 | -20.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Charlotte @ Army | 7–24 | -18.9 | -17.5 | -17.0 | 1.9 |
| 2025 | 7 | Navy @ Temple | 32–31 | +6.7 | +10.0 | +1.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Rice @ UTSA | 13–61 | -9.1 | -9.5 | -48.0 | 38.9 |
| 2025 | 7 | Miami (OH) @ Akron | 20–7 | +8.3 | +11.5 | +13.0 | 4.7 |
| 2025 | 7 | Ball State @ Western Michigan | 0–42 | -14.6 | -9.5 | -42.0 | 27.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Toledo @ Bowling Green | 23–28 | +21.0 | +10.5 | -5.0 | 26.0 |
| 2025 | 7 | Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan | 10–16 | +1.2 | +1.5 | -6.0 | 7.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 7 | Massachusetts @ Kent State | 6–42 | -3.3 | -1.5 | -36.0 | 32.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Vanderbilt @ Alabama | 14–30 | -5.8 | -13.5 | -16.0 | 10.2 |
| 2025 | 6 | Texas @ Florida | 21–29 | +5.3 | +4.5 | -8.0 | 13.3 |
| 2025 | 6 | Kentucky @ Georgia | 14–35 | -23.4 | -19.5 | -21.0 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 6 | Kent State @ Oklahoma | 0–44 | -44.7 | -46.5 | -44.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Mississippi State @ Texas A&M | 9–31 | -16.0 | -17.5 | -22.0 | 6.0 |
| 2025 | 6 | Penn State @ UCLA | 37–42 | +12.5 | +24.5 | -5.0 | 17.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Wisconsin @ Michigan | 10–24 | -28.0 | -17.5 | -14.0 | 14.0 |
| 2025 | 6 | Washington @ Maryland | 24–20 | +2.6 | +5.5 | +4.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | UL Monroe @ Northwestern | 7–42 | -4.5 | -12.5 | -35.0 | 30.5 |
| 2025 | 6 | Minnesota @ Ohio State | 3–42 | -25.6 | -23.5 | -39.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Michigan State @ Nebraska | 27–38 | -23.7 | -12.5 | -11.0 | 12.7 |
| 2025 | 6 | Illinois @ Purdue | 43–27 | +7.0 | +7.0 | +16.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Oregon State @ App State | 23–27 | +9.2 | -2.0 | -4.0 | 13.2 |
| 2025 | 6 | Boston College @ Pittsburgh | 7–48 | -6.4 | -6.5 | -41.0 | 34.6 |
| 2025 | 6 | Duke @ California | 45–21 | +11.9 | +3.5 | +24.0 | 12.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Clemson @ North Carolina | 38–10 | +7.4 | +15.5 | +28.0 | 20.6 |
| 2025 | 6 | Miami @ Florida State | 28–22 | +3.3 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 2.7 |
| 2025 | 6 | Virginia @ Louisville | 30–27 | +0.7 | -6.5 | +3.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Syracuse @ SMU | 18–31 | -14.4 | -17.5 | -13.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech | 30–23 | -1.3 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | FCS @ NC State | 10–56 | -37.4 | -42.5 | -46.0 | 8.6 |
| 2025 | 6 | West Virginia @ BYU | 24–38 | -32.5 | -19.5 | -14.0 | 18.5 |
| 2025 | 6 | Oklahoma State @ Arizona | 13–41 | -24.1 | -21.5 | -28.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Kansas State @ Baylor | 34–35 | -7.4 | -4.5 | -1.0 | 6.4 |
| 2025 | 6 | Iowa State @ Cincinnati | 30–38 | -5.0 | -1.5 | -8.0 | 3.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Texas Tech @ Houston | 35–11 | +17.9 | +13.0 | +24.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Colorado @ TCU | 21–35 | -2.4 | -13.5 | -14.0 | 11.6 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.