Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	5	Cincinnati @ Notre Dame	24–13	-6.5	+2.0	+11.0	17.5
2021	5	Indiana @ Penn State	0–24	-9.1	-12.3	-24.0	14.9
2021	5	Iowa @ Maryland	51–14	-4.4	+3.0	+37.0	41.4
2021	5	Michigan @ Wisconsin	38–17	+9.8	-2.0	+21.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Minnesota @ Purdue	20–13	-5.0	-2.5	+7.0	12.0
2021	5	Northwestern @ Nebraska	7–56	-20.7	-11.3	-49.0	28.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Ohio State @ Rutgers	52–13	+9.4	+15.0	+39.0	29.6
2021	5	Toledo @ Massachusetts	45–7	+35.3	+27.0	+38.0	2.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Kansas @ Iowa State	7–59	-40.2	-34.5	-52.0	11.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Oklahoma @ Kansas State	37–31	+19.7	+12.5	+6.0	13.7
2021	5	Baylor @ Oklahoma State	14–24	+0.5	-4.0	-10.0	10.5
2021	5	Texas @ TCU	32–27	+16.3	+4.0	+5.0	11.3
2021	5	Texas Tech @ West Virginia	23–20	-13.1	-7.5	+3.0	16.1
2021	5	Houston @ Tulsa	45–10	+0.0	-3.5	+35.0	35.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	UCF @ Navy	30–34	+11.3	+15.0	-4.0	15.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Tulane @ East Carolina	29–52	+7.9	+3.0	-23.0	30.9
2021	5	Memphis @ Temple	31–34	+5.7	+11.0	-3.0	8.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	South Florida @ SMU	17–41	-13.4	-21.3	-24.0	10.6
2021	5	Central Michigan @ Miami (OH)	17–28	-9.2	+1.8	-11.0	1.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois	20–27	+1.1	0.0	-7.0	8.1
2021	5	Army @ Ball State	16–28	+18.4	+10.3	-12.0	30.4
2021	5	Ohio @ Akron	34–17	-5.5	+9.8	+17.0	22.5
2021	5	Western Michigan @ Buffalo	24–17	+6.4	+7.0	+7.0	0.6
2021	5	Bowling Green @ Kent State	20–27	-10.8	-16.5	-7.0	3.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	App State @ Georgia State	45–16	+2.2	+10.0	+29.0	26.8
2021	5	Arkansas State @ Georgia Southern	33–59	-6.7	-2.0	-26.0	19.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	UL Monroe @ Coastal Carolina	6–59	-21.2	-33.5	-53.0	31.8
2021	5	Louisiana @ South Alabama	20–18	+2.8	+12.0	+2.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Washington State @ California	21–6	-17.6	-7.5	+15.0	32.6
2021	5	Oregon @ Stanford	24–31	+0.9	+8.5	-7.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Washington @ Oregon State	24–27	-13.7	-2.5	-3.0	10.7
2021	5	Arizona State @ UCLA	42–23	-3.8	-3.0	+19.0	22.8
2021	5	USC @ Colorado	37–14	+7.7	+9.0	+23.0	15.3
2021	5	BYU @ Utah State	34–20	+4.3	+8.5	+14.0	9.7
2021	5	Air Force @ New Mexico	38–10	+14.2	+11.5	+28.0	13.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	Nevada @ Boise State	41–31	-15.8	-3.5	+10.0	25.8
2021	5	Fresno State @ Hawai'i	24–27	+4.9	+10.8	-3.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	5	New Mexico State @ San José State	31–37	-16.6	-25.5	-6.0	10.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	4	Southern Miss @ Alabama	14–63	-26.2	-45.0	-49.0	22.8
2021	4	Texas A&M vs Arkansas	10–20	+2.8	+4.5	-10.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	4	Georgia State @ Auburn	24–34	-19.2	-27.5	-10.0	9.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	4	Tennessee @ Florida	14–38	-9.5	-19.0	-24.0	14.5
2021	4	LSU @ Mississippi State	28–25	+3.3	+1.5	+3.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	4	Missouri @ Boston College	34–41	-3.6	-1.0	-7.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	4	Kentucky @ South Carolina	16–10	-13.5	+4.5	+6.0	19.5
2021	4	Georgia @ Vanderbilt	62–0	+36.8	+36.0	+62.0	25.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	4	Middle Tennessee @ Charlotte	39–42	-1.0	-2.5	-3.0	2.0
2021	4	North Texas @ Louisiana Tech	17–24	-6.3	-10.0	-7.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	4	Florida International @ Central Michigan	27–31	-13.6	-12.0	-4.0	9.6
2021	4	Florida Atlantic @ Air Force	7–31	+6.4	-3.5	-24.0	30.4

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.