Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2022	5	Purdue @ Minnesota	20–10	-22.1	-9.0	+10.0	32.1
2022	5	Indiana @ Nebraska	21–35	+0.4	-6.5	-14.0	14.4
2022	5	Michigan State @ Maryland	13–27	-18.4	-7.5	-14.0	4.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Rutgers @ Ohio State	10–49	-44.4	-39.0	-39.0	5.4
2022	5	Northwestern @ Penn State	7–17	-34.3	-25.5	-10.0	24.3
2022	5	Louisville @ Boston College	33–34	+18.4	+13.5	-1.0	19.4
2022	5	NC State @ Clemson	20–30	-3.5	-6.5	-10.0	6.5
2022	5	Virginia @ Duke	17–38	-3.5	-2.0	-21.0	17.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Wake Forest @ Florida State	31–21	-11.2	-6.0	+10.0	21.2
2022	5	Virginia Tech @ North Carolina	10–41	-10.6	-9.5	-31.0	20.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Georgia Tech @ Pittsburgh	26–21	-16.4	-21.5	+5.0	21.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	FCS @ Syracuse	0–59	-25.6	-54.0	-59.0	33.4
2022	5	Massachusetts @ Eastern Michigan	13–20	-7.2	-20.0	-7.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Utah State @ BYU	26–38	-24.2	-26.0	-12.0	12.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Navy @ Air Force	10–13	-15.7	-14.0	-3.0	12.7
2022	5	San Diego State @ Boise State	13–35	+1.3	-6.0	-22.0	23.3
2022	5	New Mexico @ UNLV	20–31	-15.2	-14.0	-11.0	4.2
2022	5	San José State @ Wyoming	33–16	+1.8	+2.5	+17.0	15.2
2022	5	Tulane @ Houston	27–24	+2.3	-5.5	+3.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	East Carolina vs South Florida	48–28	+6.2	+9.5	+20.0	13.8
2022	5	Cincinnati @ Tulsa	31–21	+4.8	+10.0	+10.0	5.2
2022	5	Temple @ Memphis	3–24	-10.3	-18.5	-21.0	10.7
2022	5	Central Michigan @ Toledo	17–38	+0.4	-6.5	-21.0	21.4
2022	5	Northern Illinois @ Ball State	38–44	+1.6	+3.3	-6.0	7.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Bowling Green @ Akron	31–28	+3.8	+9.0	+3.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Miami (OH) @ Buffalo	20–24	-0.2	-3.0	-4.0	3.8
2022	5	Ohio @ Kent State	24–31	-24.1	-13.0	-7.0	17.1
2022	5	FCS @ Western Michigan	7–44	-6.6	-15.0	-37.0	30.4
2022	5	FCS @ App State	0–49	-24.0	-39.5	-49.0	25.0
2022	5	Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina	30–34	-5.6	-10.0	-4.0	1.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Texas State @ James Madison	13–40	-10.0	-21.8	-27.0	17.0
2022	5	FCS @ Marshall	7–28	-17.9	-31.0	-21.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	UL Monroe @ Arkansas State	28–45	-2.9	-7.5	-17.0	14.1
2022	5	South Alabama @ Louisiana	20–17	+11.2	+8.5	+3.0	8.2
2022	5	UTEP @ Charlotte	41–35	+12.6	+3.5	+6.0	6.6
2022	5	Florida International @ New Mexico State	21–7	-22.1	-16.0	+14.0	36.1
2022	5	Florida Atlantic @ North Texas	28–45	+5.6	+3.0	-17.0	22.6
2022	5	UTSA @ Middle Tennessee	45–30	-14.6	+4.5	+15.0	29.6
2022	5	UAB @ Rice	24–28	+6.0	+10.5	-4.0	10.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	5	Troy @ Western Kentucky	34–27	-14.3	-5.0	+7.0	21.3
2022	4	Vanderbilt @ Alabama	3–55	-27.6	-40.5	-52.0	24.4
2022	4	Arkansas vs Texas A&M	21–23	-6.3	-1.5	-2.0	4.3
2022	4	Missouri @ Auburn	14–17	-5.6	-7.5	-3.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	4	Kent State @ Georgia	22–39	-32.3	-45.0	-17.0	15.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	4	Northern Illinois @ Kentucky	23–31	-18.3	-26.8	-8.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	4	New Mexico @ LSU	0–38	-28.2	-31.5	-38.0	9.8
2022	4	Tulsa @ Ole Miss	27–35	-16.3	-21.0	-8.0	8.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	4	Bowling Green @ Mississippi State	14–45	-18.0	-31.0	-31.0	13.0
2022	4	Florida @ Tennessee	33–38	-24.2	-11.0	-5.0	19.2
2022	4	Arizona @ California	31–49	-15.5	-3.5	-18.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.