Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	5	LSU @ Ole Miss	49–55	+3.5	+3.0	-6.0	9.5
2023	5	Illinois @ Purdue	19–44	+4.2	-1.0	-25.0	29.2
2023	5	FCS @ Rutgers	3–52	-29.0	-46.0	-49.0	20.0
2023	5	South Carolina @ Tennessee	20–41	-9.8	-12.5	-21.0	11.2
2023	5	Utah State @ UConn	34–33	+4.2	+4.5	+1.0	3.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Missouri @ Vanderbilt	38–21	+15.3	+13.5	+17.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Utah @ Oregon State	7–21	-6.7	-3.5	-14.0	7.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Washington @ Arizona	31–24	+20.6	+20.0	+7.0	13.6
2023	5	Arizona State @ California	21–24	-4.9	-12.5	-3.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	USC @ Colorado	48–41	+14.2	+21.5	+7.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Oregon @ Stanford	42–6	+35.8	+27.0	+36.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Notre Dame @ Duke	21–14	+0.1	+5.5	+7.0	6.9
2023	5	Louisville @ NC State	13–10	+11.2	+3.5	+3.0	8.2
2023	5	Virginia @ Boston College	24–27	-6.9	-3.5	-3.0	3.9
2023	5	Clemson @ Syracuse	31–14	-0.0	+7.0	+17.0	17.0
2023	5	Bowling Green @ Georgia Tech	38–27	-21.6	-22.0	+11.0	32.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech	21–38	+3.0	+2.5	-17.0	20.0
2023	5	Cincinnati @ BYU	27–35	+3.1	-1.0	-8.0	11.1
2023	5	Iowa State @ Oklahoma	20–50	-27.2	-20.0	-30.0	2.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	West Virginia @ TCU	24–21	-14.1	-12.5	+3.0	17.1
2023	5	Kansas @ Texas	14–40	-17.4	-16.5	-26.0	8.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Houston @ Texas Tech	28–49	-7.8	-8.5	-21.0	13.2
2023	5	Baylor @ UCF	36–35	-10.2	-11.5	+1.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Arkansas State @ Massachusetts	52–28	-6.7	-1.5	+24.0	30.7
2023	5	Temple @ Tulsa	26–48	-0.1	-3.0	-22.0	21.9
2023	5	UAB @ Tulane	23–35	-8.9	-22.0	-12.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Charlotte @ SMU	16–34	-19.5	-23.5	-18.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	East Carolina @ Rice	17–24	-1.7	-3.5	-7.0	5.3
2023	5	South Florida @ Navy	44–30	-1.1	-4.0	+14.0	15.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Boise State @ Memphis	32–35	-7.4	-3.5	-3.0	4.4
2023	5	FCS @ North Texas	31–45	-20.5	-15.5	-14.0	6.5
2023	5	Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern	28–38	-4.2	-6.0	-10.0	5.8
2023	5	Troy @ Georgia State	28–7	-12.5	-1.0	+21.0	33.5
2023	5	South Alabama @ James Madison	23–31	-3.3	-3.0	-8.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Old Dominion @ Marshall	35–41	-19.9	-14.0	-6.0	13.9
2023	5	App State @ UL Monroe	41–40	+14.8	+13.5	+1.0	13.8
2023	5	Texas State @ Southern Miss	50–36	+3.2	+6.5	+14.0	10.8
2023	5	Ball State @ Western Michigan	24–42	-6.1	-1.5	-18.0	11.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan	23–26	-9.2	-7.5	-3.0	6.2
2023	5	Northern Illinois @ Toledo	33–35	-26.2	-13.0	-2.0	24.2
2023	5	Buffalo @ Akron	13–10	-8.9	-2.5	+3.0	11.9
2023	5	Miami (OH) @ Kent State	23–3	+14.4	+14.5	+20.0	5.6
2023	5	FCS @ Colorado State	20–41	-27.4	–	-21.0	6.4
2023	5	Hawai'i @ UNLV	20–44	-9.7	-11.0	-24.0	14.3
2023	5	Nevada @ Fresno State	9–27	-28.2	-24.5	-18.0	10.2
2023	5	New Mexico @ Wyoming	26–35	-6.9	-14.0	-9.0	2.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	5	San Diego State @ Air Force	10–49	-17.7	-10.5	-39.0	21.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Ole Miss @ Alabama	10–24	-0.8	-7.0	-14.0	13.2
2023	4	Charlotte @ Florida	7–22	-27.8	-28.0	-15.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	UAB @ Georgia	21–49	-31.6	-41.0	-28.0	3.6 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.