Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 6 | Nevada @ San José State | 31–35 | -4.3 | -7.0 | -4.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Texas State @ Troy | 38–17 | +7.3 | +14.5 | +21.0 | 13.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina | 37–45 | +2.5 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 10.5 |
| 2024 | 6 | App State @ Marshall | 37–52 | -15.3 | -3.0 | -15.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | South Alabama @ Arkansas State | 16–18 | +13.5 | +2.5 | -2.0 | 15.5 |
| 2024 | 6 | James Madison @ UL Monroe | 19–21 | +19.7 | +16.5 | -2.0 | 21.7 |
| 2024 | 6 | Louisiana @ Southern Miss | 23–13 | +19.6 | +17.5 | +10.0 | 9.6 |
| 2024 | 6 | Miami (OH) @ Toledo | 20–30 | -12.0 | -4.5 | -10.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Bowling Green @ Akron | 27–20 | +20.5 | +16.5 | +7.0 | 13.5 |
| 2024 | 6 | Western Michigan @ Ball State | 45–42 | +13.9 | +10.0 | +3.0 | 10.9 |
| 2024 | 6 | Tulane @ UAB | 71–20 | +23.4 | +19.5 | +51.0 | 27.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | Army @ Tulsa | 49–7 | +20.0 | +13.5 | +42.0 | 22.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 6 | East Carolina @ Charlotte | 24–55 | +5.4 | +9.5 | -31.0 | 36.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Arkansas vs Texas A&M | 17–21 | -5.6 | -6.5 | -4.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Georgia @ Alabama | 34–41 | -7.9 | +2.0 | -7.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Oklahoma @ Auburn | 27–21 | +3.2 | -2.0 | +6.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | South Alabama @ LSU | 10–42 | +3.5 | -21.0 | -32.0 | 35.5 |
| 2024 | 5 | Kentucky @ Ole Miss | 20–17 | -14.8 | -15.0 | +3.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Mississippi State @ Texas | 13–35 | -39.1 | -37.0 | -22.0 | 17.1 |
| 2024 | 5 | Illinois @ Penn State | 7–21 | -13.7 | -19.5 | -14.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Maryland @ Indiana | 28–42 | -12.6 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Minnesota @ Michigan | 24–27 | -12.8 | -10.5 | -3.0 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | 5 | Ohio State @ Michigan State | 38–7 | +15.7 | +23.5 | +31.0 | 15.3 |
| 2024 | 5 | Nebraska @ Purdue | 28–10 | +12.0 | +10.0 | +18.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Oregon @ UCLA | 34–13 | +20.7 | +23.5 | +21.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Washington @ Rutgers | 18–21 | +6.4 | -1.3 | -3.0 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 5 | Wisconsin @ USC | 21–38 | -14.8 | -13.5 | -17.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Louisville @ Notre Dame | 24–31 | -13.4 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 6.4 |
| 2024 | 5 | Buffalo @ UConn | 3–47 | -13.4 | -6.0 | -44.0 | 30.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Massachusetts @ Miami (OH) | 20–23 | -16.6 | -15.5 | -3.0 | 13.6 |
| 2024 | 5 | Virginia Tech @ Miami | 34–38 | -21.1 | -17.5 | -4.0 | 17.1 |
| 2024 | 5 | Western Kentucky @ Boston College | 20–21 | -11.4 | -7.5 | -1.0 | 10.4 |
| 2024 | 5 | Stanford @ Clemson | 14–40 | -22.4 | -24.0 | -26.0 | 3.6 |
| 2024 | 5 | North Carolina @ Duke | 20–21 | -13.2 | +1.5 | -1.0 | 12.2 |
| 2024 | 5 | Florida State @ SMU | 16–42 | -13.6 | -6.0 | -26.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Northern Illinois @ NC State | 17–24 | +0.8 | -7.0 | -7.0 | 7.8 |
| 2024 | 5 | FCS @ Syracuse | 14–42 | -32.7 | -30.8 | -28.0 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 5 | Louisiana @ Wake Forest | 41–38 | +4.3 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | BYU @ Baylor | 34–28 | +10.7 | -3.0 | +6.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Iowa State @ Houston | 20–0 | +16.5 | +16.5 | +20.0 | 3.5 |
| 2024 | 5 | TCU vs Kansas | 38–27 | -7.3 | -1.5 | +11.0 | 18.3 |
| 2024 | 5 | Oklahoma State @ Kansas State | 20–42 | -0.4 | -6.0 | -22.0 | 21.6 |
| 2024 | 5 | Cincinnati @ Texas Tech | 41–44 | -4.2 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2024 | 5 | Colorado @ UCF | 48–21 | -11.2 | -12.5 | +27.0 | 38.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Arizona @ Utah | 23–10 | -10.0 | -7.5 | +13.0 | 23.0 |
| 2024 | 5 | Louisiana Tech vs Florida International | 10–17 | +2.7 | +2.0 | -7.0 | 9.7 |
| 2024 | 5 | FCS @ Kennesaw State | 24–13 | -15.5 | +1.8 | +11.0 | 26.5 |
| 2024 | 5 | Middle Tennessee @ Memphis | 7–24 | -24.6 | -27.0 | -17.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | New Mexico @ New Mexico State | 50–40 | +10.0 | +9.5 | +10.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Texas State vs Sam Houston | 39–40 | +7.1 | +11.0 | -1.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.