Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6 | Kansas @ UCF | 27–20 | +0.3 | +4.0 | +7.0 | 6.7 |
| 2025 | 6 | Boise State @ Notre Dame | 7–28 | -25.7 | -21.5 | -21.0 | 4.7 |
| 2025 | 6 | Florida International @ UConn | 10–51 | -13.8 | -7.0 | -41.0 | 27.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Sam Houston @ New Mexico State | 10–37 | -1.5 | +2.0 | -27.0 | 25.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Western Kentucky @ Delaware | 27–24 | -2.0 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Air Force @ Navy | 31–34 | -21.6 | -13.5 | -3.0 | 18.6 |
| 2025 | 6 | Colorado State @ San Diego State | 24–45 | -21.3 | -4.5 | -21.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Nevada @ Fresno State | 17–20 | -19.0 | -12.5 | -3.0 | 16.0 |
| 2025 | 6 | New Mexico @ San José State | 28–35 | +6.8 | -2.0 | -7.0 | 13.8 |
| 2025 | 6 | UNLV @ Wyoming | 31–17 | +8.0 | +4.5 | +14.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | James Madison @ Georgia State | 14–7 | +16.1 | +19.5 | +7.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Coastal Carolina @ Old Dominion | 7–47 | -18.5 | -18.5 | -40.0 | 21.5 |
| 2025 | 6 | Texas State @ Arkansas State | 30–31 | +11.9 | +14.0 | -1.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | South Alabama @ Troy | 24–31 | -6.6 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Charlotte @ South Florida | 26–54 | -27.1 | -28.0 | -28.0 | 0.9 |
| 2025 | 6 | Army @ UAB | 31–13 | -4.5 | +6.5 | +18.0 | 22.5 |
| 2025 | 6 | Florida Atlantic @ Rice | 27–21 | -4.7 | -4.5 | +6.0 | 10.7 |
| 2025 | 6 | Tulsa @ Memphis | 7–45 | -33.1 | -21.0 | -38.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | UTSA @ Temple | 21–27 | +0.9 | +6.5 | -6.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Central Michigan @ Akron | 22–28 | +4.0 | +7.0 | -6.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Ohio @ Ball State | 14–20 | +8.4 | +14.0 | -6.0 | 14.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 6 | Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo | 30–31 | -13.8 | -9.5 | -1.0 | 12.8 |
| 2025 | 6 | Western Michigan @ Massachusetts | 21–3 | +5.5 | +12.5 | +18.0 | 12.5 |
| 2025 | 6 | Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois | 25–14 | -1.6 | +4.5 | +11.0 | 12.6 |
| 2025 | 5 | Notre Dame @ Arkansas | 56–13 | -3.7 | +5.5 | +43.0 | 46.7 |
| 2025 | 5 | Alabama @ Georgia | 24–21 | +5.1 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | LSU @ Ole Miss | 19–24 | -9.5 | -2.5 | -5.0 | 4.5 |
| 2025 | 5 | Tennessee @ Mississippi State | 41–34 | -3.0 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 10.0 |
| 2025 | 5 | Massachusetts @ Missouri | 6–42 | -37.7 | -44.5 | -36.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Kentucky @ South Carolina | 13–35 | -8.3 | -5.5 | -22.0 | 13.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Auburn @ Texas A&M | 10–16 | -8.4 | -6.5 | -6.0 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 5 | Utah State @ Vanderbilt | 35–55 | -24.3 | -23.5 | -20.0 | 4.3 |
| 2025 | 5 | Rutgers @ Minnesota | 28–31 | -3.0 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 0.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | USC @ Illinois | 32–34 | +11.0 | +6.5 | -2.0 | 13.0 |
| 2025 | 5 | UCLA @ Northwestern | 14–17 | -12.6 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 9.6 |
| 2025 | 5 | Ohio State @ Washington | 24–6 | +7.1 | +9.5 | +18.0 | 10.9 |
| 2025 | 5 | Indiana @ Iowa | 20–15 | +13.6 | +9.5 | +5.0 | 8.6 |
| 2025 | 5 | Oregon @ Penn State | 30–24 | +8.0 | -4.0 | +6.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Houston @ Oregon State | 27–24 | +9.9 | +11.5 | +3.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Washington State @ Colorado State | 20–3 | -12.3 | -4.5 | +17.0 | 29.3 |
| 2025 | 5 | Florida State @ Virginia | 38–46 | +3.3 | +7.0 | -8.0 | 11.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | California @ Boston College | 28–24 | -10.7 | -6.0 | +4.0 | 14.7 |
| 2025 | 5 | Duke @ Syracuse | 38–3 | -12.4 | +4.0 | +35.0 | 47.4 |
| 2025 | 5 | Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest | 30–29 | +11.6 | +13.0 | +1.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Louisville @ Pittsburgh | 34–27 | +7.1 | +3.0 | +7.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Virginia Tech @ NC State | 23–21 | -11.7 | -10.0 | +2.0 | 13.7 |
| 2025 | 5 | San José State @ Stanford | 29–30 | -19.2 | -3.0 | -1.0 | 18.2 |
| 2025 | 5 | TCU @ Arizona State | 24–27 | -7.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 4.5 |
| 2025 | 5 | BYU @ Colorado | 24–21 | +13.0 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 10.0 |
| 2025 | 5 | Arizona @ Iowa State | 14–39 | -7.6 | -4.0 | -25.0 | 17.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.