Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4 | Marshall @ App State | 30–31 | -7.3 | -7.0 | -1.0 | 6.3 |
| 2021 | 4 | Buffalo @ Old Dominion | 35–34 | +3.4 | +13.0 | +1.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ Rice | 34–48 | -5.5 | -37.0 | -14.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | UAB @ Tulane | 28–21 | +3.9 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | New Mexico @ UTEP | 13–20 | -1.0 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | UTSA @ Memphis | 31–28 | +7.2 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Indiana @ Western Kentucky | 33–31 | +4.0 | +9.5 | +2.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Liberty @ Syracuse | 21–24 | +3.7 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Wake Forest @ Virginia | 37–17 | -5.5 | -3.5 | +20.0 | 25.5 |
| 2021 | 4 | Kansas @ Duke | 33–52 | -14.9 | -16.3 | -19.0 | 4.1 |
| 2021 | 4 | Louisville @ Florida State | 31–23 | +12.4 | -1.3 | +8.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | North Carolina vs Georgia Tech | 22–45 | +15.5 | +14.5 | -23.0 | 38.5 |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ Miami | 0–69 | -27.5 | -46.0 | -69.0 | 41.5 |
| 2021 | 4 | Clemson @ NC State | 21–27 | +0.7 | +10.5 | -6.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ Pittsburgh | 7–77 | -32.0 | -29.0 | -70.0 | 38.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ Virginia Tech | 10–21 | -34.1 | -29.0 | -11.0 | 23.1 |
| 2021 | 4 | Notre Dame vs Wisconsin | 41–13 | +0.5 | -6.0 | +28.0 | 27.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Illinois @ Purdue | 9–13 | -13.9 | -10.5 | -4.0 | 9.9 |
| 2021 | 4 | Colorado State @ Iowa | 14–24 | -23.1 | -23.5 | -10.0 | 13.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Kent State @ Maryland | 16–37 | -10.0 | -13.0 | -21.0 | 11.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | Rutgers @ Michigan | 13–20 | -14.9 | -20.3 | -7.0 | 7.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Nebraska @ Michigan State | 20–23 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 1.9 |
| 2021 | 4 | Bowling Green @ Minnesota | 14–10 | -34.8 | -30.5 | +4.0 | 38.8 |
| 2021 | 4 | Ohio @ Northwestern | 6–35 | -19.9 | -13.5 | -29.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Akron @ Ohio State | 7–59 | -35.2 | -48.3 | -52.0 | 16.8 |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ Penn State | 17–38 | -46.5 | -29.5 | -21.0 | 25.5 |
| 2021 | 4 | Wyoming @ UConn | 24–22 | +27.5 | +31.5 | +2.0 | 25.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Massachusetts @ Coastal Carolina | 3–53 | -49.7 | -36.0 | -50.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Iowa State @ Baylor | 29–31 | +1.3 | +7.0 | -2.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | West Virginia @ Oklahoma | 13–16 | -13.6 | -17.5 | -3.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Kansas State @ Oklahoma State | 20–31 | -4.6 | -6.0 | -11.0 | 6.4 |
| 2021 | 4 | SMU @ TCU | 42–34 | -13.2 | -9.5 | +8.0 | 21.2 |
| 2021 | 4 | Texas Tech @ Texas | 35–70 | -12.7 | -9.0 | -35.0 | 22.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ East Carolina | 28–31 | -28.1 | -24.5 | -3.0 | 25.1 |
| 2021 | 4 | Navy @ Houston | 20–28 | -29.2 | -20.0 | -8.0 | 21.2 |
| 2021 | 4 | South Florida @ BYU | 27–35 | -23.3 | -23.5 | -8.0 | 15.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ Temple | 7–41 | -12.5 | -36.5 | -34.0 | 21.5 |
| 2021 | 4 | Arkansas State @ Tulsa | 34–41 | -19.7 | -14.5 | -7.0 | 12.7 |
| 2021 | 4 | Miami (OH) @ Army | 10–23 | -0.7 | -7.5 | -13.0 | 12.3 |
| 2021 | 4 | San José State @ Western Michigan | 3–23 | -4.2 | -2.5 | -20.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Toledo @ Ball State | 22–12 | +4.0 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 6.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ Northern Illinois | 14–41 | -13.6 | -21.5 | -27.0 | 13.4 |
| 2021 | 4 | Texas State @ Eastern Michigan | 21–59 | -5.1 | -7.5 | -38.0 | 32.9 |
| 2021 | 4 | Louisiana @ Georgia Southern | 28–20 | +10.8 | +14.5 | +8.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Troy @ UL Monroe | 16–29 | +22.5 | +23.5 | -13.0 | 35.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | California @ Washington | 24–31 | -14.8 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 7.8 |
| 2021 | 4 | UCLA @ Stanford | 35–24 | -1.0 | +4.0 | +11.0 | 12.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | Arizona @ Oregon | 19–41 | -31.0 | -29.5 | -22.0 | 9.0 |
| 2021 | 4 | Oregon State @ USC | 45–27 | -4.4 | -11.0 | +18.0 | 22.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Washington State @ Utah | 13–24 | -14.8 | -15.0 | -11.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.