Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | Utah @ Arizona State | 34–13 | +16.9 | +16.8 | +21.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | UCLA @ Colorado | 45–17 | +17.8 | +22.0 | +28.0 | 10.2 |
| 2022 | 4 | Oregon @ Washington State | 44–41 | +4.8 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | USC @ Oregon State | 17–14 | +3.6 | +5.5 | +3.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Stanford @ Washington | 22–40 | -16.1 | -14.0 | -18.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | TCU @ SMU | 42–34 | +0.3 | +2.5 | +8.0 | 7.7 |
| 2022 | 4 | Duke @ Kansas | 27–35 | -17.7 | -7.0 | -8.0 | 9.7 |
| 2022 | 4 | Baylor @ Iowa State | 31–24 | -2.4 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Kansas State @ Oklahoma | 41–34 | -16.1 | -13.5 | +7.0 | 23.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | Texas @ Texas Tech | 34–37 | +2.2 | +7.0 | -3.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Notre Dame @ North Carolina | 45–32 | +1.2 | -2.5 | +13.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | UConn @ NC State | 10–41 | -35.1 | -38.5 | -31.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Akron @ Liberty | 12–21 | -28.8 | -26.5 | -9.0 | 19.8 |
| 2022 | 4 | Iowa @ Rutgers | 27–10 | +1.2 | +7.5 | +17.0 | 15.8 |
| 2022 | 4 | Minnesota @ Michigan State | 34–7 | +2.7 | +3.0 | +27.0 | 24.3 |
| 2022 | 4 | Miami (OH) @ Northwestern | 17–14 | +7.6 | -7.5 | +3.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Wisconsin @ Ohio State | 21–52 | -21.1 | -19.0 | -31.0 | 9.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Indiana @ Cincinnati | 24–45 | -21.9 | -16.5 | -21.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Maryland @ Michigan | 27–34 | -9.0 | -17.0 | -7.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Central Michigan @ Penn State | 14–33 | -20.8 | -28.0 | -19.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Hawai'i @ New Mexico State | 26–45 | +3.1 | -4.5 | -19.0 | 22.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | West Virginia @ Virginia Tech | 33–10 | +10.7 | +2.0 | +23.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Virginia @ Syracuse | 20–22 | -11.8 | -9.5 | -2.0 | 9.8 |
| 2022 | 4 | Boston College @ Florida State | 14–44 | -18.5 | -18.5 | -30.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | South Florida @ Louisville | 3–41 | -8.7 | -15.5 | -38.0 | 29.3 |
| 2022 | 4 | FCS @ Pittsburgh | 24–45 | -44.1 | -32.5 | -21.0 | 23.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | Georgia Tech @ UCF | 10–27 | -24.1 | -21.0 | -17.0 | 7.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | Clemson @ Wake Forest | 51–45 | +3.4 | +7.5 | +6.0 | 2.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | Massachusetts @ Temple | 0–28 | -12.2 | -10.0 | -28.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | James Madison @ App State | 32–28 | -5.7 | -6.3 | +4.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Southern Miss @ Tulane | 27–24 | -13.1 | -11.8 | +3.0 | 16.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | Nevada @ Air Force | 20–48 | -20.4 | -24.0 | -28.0 | 7.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | FCS @ Colorado State | 41–10 | -14.6 | +4.5 | +31.0 | 45.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | UNLV @ Utah State | 34–24 | +13.9 | +3.0 | +10.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Wyoming @ BYU | 24–38 | -11.1 | -21.3 | -14.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Toledo @ San Diego State | 14–17 | +1.6 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Western Michigan @ San José State | 6–34 | +1.5 | -6.5 | -28.0 | 29.5 |
| 2022 | 4 | Navy @ East Carolina | 23–20 | -24.7 | -16.5 | +3.0 | 27.7 |
| 2022 | 4 | Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan | 50–31 | -14.1 | -6.5 | +19.0 | 33.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | Ball State @ Georgia Southern | 23–34 | -6.9 | -9.5 | -11.0 | 4.1 |
| 2022 | 4 | FCS @ Ohio | 52–59 | -16.4 | -16.5 | -7.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | FCS @ Texas State | 0–34 | -19.4 | -26.5 | -34.0 | 14.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | FCS @ Illinois | 0–31 | -39.2 | -20.0 | -31.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State | 41–24 | -8.5 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 25.5 |
| 2022 | 4 | Arkansas State @ Old Dominion | 26–29 | -2.1 | -5.0 | -3.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Louisiana @ UL Monroe | 17–21 | +1.9 | +9.5 | -4.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Marshall @ Troy | 7–16 | +3.9 | +3.3 | -9.0 | 12.9 |
| 2022 | 4 | Charlotte @ South Carolina | 20–56 | -20.4 | -23.5 | -36.0 | 15.6 |
| 2022 | 4 | Florida International @ Western Kentucky | 0–73 | -26.0 | -31.0 | -73.0 | 47.0 |
| 2022 | 4 | Florida Atlantic @ Purdue | 26–28 | -25.4 | -16.3 | -2.0 | 23.4 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.