Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	4	New Mexico State @ Hawai'i	17–20	+6.7	-4.0	-3.0	9.7
2023	4	Sam Houston @ Houston	7–38	-5.4	-11.5	-31.0	25.6
2023	4	Florida Atlantic @ Illinois	17–23	-14.1	-16.0	-6.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Akron @ Indiana	27–29	-15.6	-16.5	-2.0	13.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Eastern Michigan @ Jacksonville State	0–21	-6.0	-6.5	-21.0	15.0
2023	4	Arkansas @ LSU	31–34	-18.0	-17.5	-3.0	15.0
2023	4	Memphis vs Missouri	27–34	+0.5	-6.5	-7.0	7.5
2023	4	Rutgers @ Michigan	7–31	-14.0	-24.0	-24.0	10.0
2023	4	Maryland @ Michigan State	31–9	+10.5	+7.5	+22.0	11.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Colorado State @ Middle Tennessee	31–23	-3.9	-3.5	+8.0	11.9
2023	4	Louisiana Tech @ Nebraska	14–28	-16.2	-20.5	-14.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Minnesota @ Northwestern	34–37	-0.2	+11.5	-3.0	2.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Iowa @ Penn State	0–31	-13.3	-14.0	-31.0	17.7
2023	4	Wisconsin @ Purdue	38–17	+6.4	+6.0	+21.0	14.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Mississippi State @ South Carolina	30–37	-11.3	-6.0	-7.0	4.3
2023	4	Army @ Syracuse	16–29	-13.9	-13.0	-13.0	0.9
2023	4	UTSA @ Tennessee	14–45	-11.2	-24.0	-31.0	19.8
2023	4	Auburn @ Texas A&M	10–27	-10.1	-9.0	-17.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Western Kentucky @ Troy	24–27	-5.8	-3.5	-3.0	2.8
2023	4	Duke @ UConn	41–7	+24.5	+22.0	+34.0	9.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	UNLV @ UTEP	45–28	+2.1	-1.0	+17.0	14.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Kentucky @ Vanderbilt	45–28	+9.5	+13.5	+17.0	7.5
2023	4	Liberty @ Florida International	38–6	+2.0	+10.0	+32.0	30.0
2023	4	Ohio State @ Notre Dame	17–14	+3.8	+3.0	+3.0	0.8
2023	4	USC @ Arizona State	42–28	+26.8	+34.5	+14.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Colorado @ Oregon	6–42	-24.0	-21.0	-36.0	12.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Arizona @ Stanford	21–20	+22.0	+13.0	+1.0	21.0
2023	4	UCLA @ Utah	7–14	+2.9	-3.0	-7.0	9.9
2023	4	California @ Washington	32–59	-31.7	-20.5	-27.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Oregon State @ Washington State	35–38	+5.7	+3.0	-3.0	8.7
2023	4	NC State @ Virginia	24–21	+10.7	+8.0	+3.0	7.7
2023	4	Boston College @ Louisville	28–56	-17.3	-14.0	-28.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Florida State @ Clemson	31–24	-8.2	+2.0	+7.0	15.2
2023	4	Georgia Tech @ Wake Forest	30–16	-0.8	-3.5	+14.0	14.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Miami @ Temple	41–7	+11.6	+23.5	+34.0	22.4
2023	4	North Carolina @ Pittsburgh	41–24	+7.3	+7.0	+17.0	9.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Virginia Tech @ Marshall	17–24	-11.2	-5.5	-7.0	4.2
2023	4	Texas @ Baylor	38–6	+14.7	+17.5	+32.0	17.3
2023	4	Oklahoma @ Cincinnati	20–6	+17.1	+14.0	+14.0	3.1
2023	4	Oklahoma State @ Iowa State	27–34	-10.6	-3.5	-7.0	3.6
2023	4	BYU @ Kansas	27–38	-6.3	-9.5	-11.0	4.7
2023	4	UCF @ Kansas State	31–44	-6.2	-6.0	-13.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	SMU @ TCU	17–34	-0.7	-7.0	-17.0	16.3
2023	4	Texas Tech @ West Virginia	13–20	-1.1	+6.0	-7.0	5.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	New Mexico @ Massachusetts	34–31	-4.3	-3.5	+3.0	7.3
2023	4	Tulsa @ Northern Illinois	22–14	+3.8	-4.0	+8.0	4.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	FCS @ Tulane	7–36	-35.3	-38.0	-29.0	6.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	FCS @ East Carolina	0–44	-23.6	-13.0	-44.0	20.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Rice @ South Florida	29–42	+4.6	+2.5	-13.0	17.6
2023	4	Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	30–17	-3.2	-6.5	+13.0	16.2 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.