Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5 | Air Force @ Wyoming | 19–31 | +5.0 | +4.0 | -12.0 | 17.0 |
| 2024 | 5 | Washington State @ Boise State | 24–45 | -0.6 | -6.5 | -21.0 | 20.4 |
| 2024 | 5 | Fresno State @ UNLV | 14–59 | -2.8 | -2.5 | -45.0 | 42.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | San Diego State @ Central Michigan | 21–22 | -1.1 | -2.5 | -1.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Georgia Southern @ Georgia State | 38–21 | -6.6 | -3.5 | +17.0 | 23.6 |
| 2024 | 5 | Ball State @ James Madison | 7–63 | -22.5 | -22.0 | -56.0 | 33.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Western Michigan @ Marshall | 20–27 | -4.1 | -3.5 | -7.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Old Dominion @ Bowling Green | 30–27 | -13.9 | -11.0 | +3.0 | 16.9 |
| 2024 | 5 | UL Monroe @ Troy | 13–9 | -8.5 | -6.0 | +4.0 | 12.5 |
| 2024 | 5 | Akron @ Ohio | 10–30 | -11.4 | -8.0 | -20.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Eastern Michigan @ Kent State | 52–33 | +17.5 | +14.0 | +19.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | Army @ Temple | 42–14 | +6.9 | +11.0 | +28.0 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 5 | Navy @ UAB | 41–18 | +3.7 | +4.5 | +23.0 | 19.3 |
| 2024 | 5 | Charlotte @ Rice | 21–20 | -8.2 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 5 | UTSA @ East Carolina | 20–30 | +2.8 | -2.0 | -10.0 | 12.8 |
| 2024 | 5 | FCS @ Florida Atlantic | 10–41 | -21.7 | -34.8 | -31.0 | 9.3 |
| 2024 | 5 | Tulsa @ North Texas | 20–52 | -9.0 | -7.0 | -32.0 | 23.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 5 | South Florida @ Tulane | 10–45 | -9.3 | -4.0 | -35.0 | 25.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Arkansas @ Auburn | 24–14 | -4.7 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 14.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | Ohio @ Kentucky | 6–41 | -16.0 | -21.5 | -35.0 | 19.0 |
| 2024 | 4 | UCLA @ LSU | 17–34 | -9.5 | -21.5 | -17.0 | 7.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | Georgia Southern @ Ole Miss | 13–52 | -35.0 | -35.0 | -39.0 | 4.0 |
| 2024 | 4 | Florida @ Mississippi State | 45–28 | +6.3 | +6.5 | +17.0 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | Vanderbilt @ Missouri | 27–30 | -22.8 | -18.0 | -3.0 | 19.8 |
| 2024 | 4 | Tennessee @ Oklahoma | 25–15 | +8.2 | +6.0 | +10.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Akron @ South Carolina | 7–50 | -26.2 | -25.0 | -43.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | UL Monroe @ Texas | 3–51 | -39.9 | -43.5 | -48.0 | 8.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | Bowling Green @ Texas A&M | 20–26 | -15.1 | -21.0 | -6.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Illinois @ Nebraska | 31–24 | -2.2 | -9.0 | +7.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Charlotte @ Indiana | 14–52 | -33.4 | -28.5 | -38.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Iowa @ Minnesota | 31–14 | -2.5 | +3.0 | +17.0 | 19.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Maryland | 20–38 | -40.0 | -22.3 | -18.0 | 22.0 |
| 2024 | 4 | USC @ Michigan | 24–27 | -2.5 | +4.0 | -3.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Michigan State @ Boston College | 19–23 | -11.4 | -4.5 | -4.0 | 7.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | Northwestern @ Washington | 5–24 | -13.4 | -12.0 | -19.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Marshall @ Ohio State | 14–49 | -28.3 | -39.0 | -35.0 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | Kent State @ Penn State | 0–56 | -39.5 | -49.0 | -56.0 | 16.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | Rutgers @ Virginia Tech | 26–23 | -7.9 | -3.3 | +3.0 | 10.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS vs Florida International | 45–42 | -15.9 | -12.5 | +3.0 | 18.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | Miami (OH) @ Notre Dame | 3–28 | -32.4 | -27.5 | -25.0 | 7.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | Florida Atlantic @ UConn | 14–48 | -8.8 | -1.0 | -34.0 | 25.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Massachusetts | 31–35 | -16.9 | -19.5 | -4.0 | 12.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Pittsburgh | 17–73 | -34.2 | -28.3 | -56.0 | 21.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Stanford @ Syracuse | 26–24 | -4.1 | -9.5 | +2.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | California @ Florida State | 9–14 | -0.1 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 4.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | NC State @ Clemson | 35–59 | -18.6 | -17.5 | -24.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Duke @ Middle Tennessee | 45–17 | +15.6 | +14.5 | +28.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Georgia Tech @ Louisville | 19–31 | +0.9 | -8.5 | -12.0 | 12.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | Miami @ South Florida | 50–15 | +8.3 | +16.5 | +35.0 | 26.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | James Madison @ North Carolina | 70–50 | -12.8 | -11.0 | +20.0 | 32.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.