Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5 | Cincinnati @ Kansas | 37–34 | -6.9 | -5.5 | +3.0 | 9.9 |
| 2025 | 5 | UCF @ Kansas State | 20–34 | +9.6 | -6.0 | -14.0 | 23.6 |
| 2025 | 5 | Baylor @ Oklahoma State | 45–27 | +23.0 | +21.0 | +18.0 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 5 | Utah @ West Virginia | 48–14 | +9.2 | +13.5 | +34.0 | 24.8 |
| 2025 | 5 | UConn @ Buffalo | 20–17 | +0.6 | +3.0 | +3.0 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 5 | Jacksonville State @ Southern Miss | 25–42 | +2.4 | -4.5 | -17.0 | 19.4 |
| 2025 | 5 | Middle Tennessee @ Kennesaw State | 16–24 | -4.2 | -7.0 | -8.0 | 3.8 |
| 2025 | 5 | Liberty @ Old Dominion | 7–21 | -24.5 | -14.5 | -14.0 | 10.5 |
| 2025 | 5 | Louisiana Tech @ UTEP | 30–11 | +3.5 | +3.5 | +19.0 | 15.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Western Kentucky @ Missouri State | 27–22 | -4.1 | +3.5 | +5.0 | 9.1 |
| 2025 | 5 | New Mexico State @ New Mexico | 20–38 | -18.8 | -16.5 | -18.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Hawai'i @ Air Force | 44–35 | -3.3 | -7.0 | +9.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | App State @ Boise State | 14–47 | -22.6 | -16.5 | -33.0 | 10.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | San Diego State @ Northern Illinois | 6–3 | +10.0 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 | 5 | Georgia Southern @ James Madison | 10–35 | -14.2 | -15.0 | -25.0 | 10.8 |
| 2025 | 5 | Marshall @ Louisiana | 51–54 | +4.8 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 7.8 |
| 2025 | 5 | Arkansas State @ UL Monroe | 16–28 | -12.7 | -1.5 | -12.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | South Alabama @ North Texas | 22–36 | -20.3 | -13.0 | -14.0 | 6.3 |
| 2025 | 5 | Army @ East Carolina | 6–28 | -11.7 | -3.5 | -22.0 | 10.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Memphis @ Florida Atlantic | 55–26 | +17.0 | +14.0 | +29.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | Rice @ Navy | 13–21 | -19.3 | -14.0 | -8.0 | 11.3 |
| 2025 | 5 | Tulane @ Tulsa | 31–14 | +3.4 | +14.5 | +17.0 | 13.6 |
| 2025 | 5 | Akron @ Toledo | 3–45 | -12.0 | -21.5 | -42.0 | 30.0 |
| 2025 | 5 | Bowling Green @ Ohio | 20–35 | -6.7 | -7.5 | -15.0 | 8.3 |
| 2025 | 5 | Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan | 13–24 | -14.7 | -3.0 | -11.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | FCS @ Miami (OH) | 0–38 | -26.4 | -22.5 | -38.0 | 11.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 5 | FCS @ Western Michigan | 14–47 | -27.5 | -7.5 | -33.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Arkansas @ Memphis | 31–32 | +3.7 | +7.0 | -1.0 | 4.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Florida @ Miami | 7–26 | -9.2 | -8.5 | -19.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ LSU | 10–56 | -48.8 | -48.8 | -46.0 | 2.8 |
| 2025 | 4 | Tulane @ Ole Miss | 10–45 | -19.2 | -12.5 | -35.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Northern Illinois @ Mississippi State | 10–38 | -19.2 | -24.0 | -28.0 | 8.8 |
| 2025 | 4 | South Carolina @ Missouri | 20–29 | -18.2 | -10.0 | -9.0 | 9.2 |
| 2025 | 4 | Auburn @ Oklahoma | 17–24 | -12.5 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | 4 | UAB @ Tennessee | 24–56 | -26.8 | -39.0 | -32.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Georgia State @ Vanderbilt | 21–70 | -31.2 | -27.5 | -49.0 | 17.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Sam Houston @ Texas | 0–55 | -27.5 | -39.5 | -55.0 | 27.5 |
| 2025 | 4 | Oregon State @ Oregon | 7–41 | -33.9 | -34.0 | -34.0 | 0.1 |
| 2025 | 4 | Washington @ Washington State | 59–24 | +17.3 | +21.0 | +35.0 | 17.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | Illinois @ Indiana | 10–63 | -7.1 | -7.0 | -53.0 | 45.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Iowa @ Rutgers | 38–28 | -6.7 | +2.5 | +10.0 | 16.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | Maryland @ Wisconsin | 27–10 | -4.4 | -10.5 | +17.0 | 21.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Michigan @ Nebraska | 30–27 | -3.2 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 6.2 |
| 2025 | 4 | Michigan State @ USC | 31–45 | -29.2 | -18.5 | -14.0 | 15.2 |
| 2025 | 4 | Purdue @ Notre Dame | 30–56 | -25.5 | -24.5 | -26.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Syracuse @ Clemson | 34–21 | -10.1 | -17.5 | +13.0 | 23.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | NC State @ Duke | 33–45 | +4.7 | -3.0 | -12.0 | 16.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | Stanford @ Virginia | 20–48 | -8.0 | -16.5 | -28.0 | 20.0 |
| 2025 | 4 | California @ San Diego State | 0–34 | +11.4 | +14.0 | -34.0 | 45.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Kent State @ Florida State | 10–66 | -32.9 | -45.0 | -56.0 | 23.1 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.