Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4 | Colorado @ Arizona State | 13–35 | -16.1 | -14.0 | -22.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 4 | Boise State @ Utah State | 27–3 | +2.3 | +9.5 | +24.0 | 21.7 |
| 2021 | 4 | UNLV @ Fresno State | 30–38 | -32.2 | -30.0 | -8.0 | 24.2 |
| 2021 | 4 | Hawai'i @ New Mexico State | 41–21 | +8.6 | +17.0 | +20.0 | 11.4 |
| 2021 | 4 | FCS @ San Diego State | 21–48 | -32.7 | -23.0 | -27.0 | 5.7 |
| 2021 | 3 | Georgia Southern @ Arkansas | 10–45 | -15.8 | -23.0 | -35.0 | 19.2 |
| 2021 | 3 | Auburn @ Penn State | 20–28 | -7.6 | -4.0 | -8.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Alabama @ Florida | 31–29 | +8.5 | +14.0 | +2.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | South Carolina @ Georgia | 13–40 | -26.7 | -31.5 | -27.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | FCS @ Kentucky | 23–28 | -29.9 | -33.5 | -5.0 | 24.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Central Michigan @ LSU | 21–49 | -14.0 | -19.5 | -28.0 | 14.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | Tulane @ Ole Miss | 21–61 | -11.0 | -14.0 | -40.0 | 29.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | Mississippi State @ Memphis | 29–31 | +6.0 | +3.5 | -2.0 | 8.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | FCS @ Missouri | 28–59 | -28.5 | -35.0 | -31.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | FCS @ Tennessee | 0–56 | -28.6 | -38.0 | -56.0 | 27.4 |
| 2021 | 3 | New Mexico @ Texas A&M | 0–34 | -28.0 | -30.0 | -34.0 | 6.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | Stanford @ Vanderbilt | 41–23 | +12.5 | +13.0 | +18.0 | 5.5 |
| 2021 | 3 | Middle Tennessee @ UTSA | 13–27 | -18.1 | -11.5 | -14.0 | 4.1 |
| 2021 | 3 | UAB @ North Texas | 40–6 | +6.0 | +12.5 | +34.0 | 28.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | Charlotte @ Georgia State | 9–20 | -8.5 | -4.5 | -11.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Florida International @ Texas Tech | 21–54 | -5.7 | -20.5 | -33.0 | 27.3 |
| 2021 | 3 | FCS @ Florida Atlantic | 14–45 | -27.6 | -31.0 | -31.0 | 3.4 |
| 2021 | 3 | SMU @ Louisiana Tech | 39–37 | +9.4 | +11.0 | +2.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | East Carolina @ Marshall | 42–38 | -4.0 | -10.0 | +4.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Old Dominion @ Liberty | 17–45 | -8.8 | -27.5 | -28.0 | 19.2 |
| 2021 | 3 | Rice @ Texas | 0–58 | -25.2 | -26.0 | -58.0 | 32.8 |
| 2021 | 3 | Troy @ Southern Miss | 21–9 | +2.1 | +11.0 | +12.0 | 9.9 |
| 2021 | 3 | UCF @ Louisville | 35–42 | -2.6 | +7.0 | -7.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Georgia Tech @ Clemson | 8–14 | -14.8 | -27.5 | -6.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Northwestern @ Duke | 23–30 | +6.3 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 13.3 |
| 2021 | 3 | Michigan State @ Miami | 38–17 | -5.0 | -7.0 | +21.0 | 26.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | FCS @ NC State | 7–45 | -32.0 | -27.5 | -38.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Virginia @ North Carolina | 39–59 | -9.5 | -7.5 | -20.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Western Michigan @ Pittsburgh | 44–41 | -10.0 | -14.5 | +3.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | FCS @ Syracuse | 24–62 | -28.0 | -21.5 | -38.0 | 10.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Boston College @ Temple | 28–3 | +12.3 | +15.0 | +25.0 | 12.7 |
| 2021 | 3 | Florida State @ Wake Forest | 14–35 | -8.7 | -4.5 | -21.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Virginia Tech @ West Virginia | 21–27 | -4.6 | -2.0 | -6.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Purdue @ Notre Dame | 13–27 | -2.2 | -7.5 | -14.0 | 11.8 |
| 2021 | 3 | Maryland @ Illinois | 20–17 | +5.1 | +7.0 | +3.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Cincinnati @ Indiana | 38–24 | +4.4 | +4.0 | +14.0 | 9.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Kent State @ Iowa | 7–30 | -15.3 | -22.5 | -23.0 | 7.7 |
| 2021 | 3 | Northern Illinois @ Michigan | 10–63 | -17.2 | -27.5 | -53.0 | 35.8 |
| 2021 | 3 | Minnesota @ Colorado | 30–0 | -2.3 | -2.5 | +30.0 | 32.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Nebraska @ Oklahoma | 16–23 | -16.7 | -22.5 | -7.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | Tulsa @ Ohio State | 20–41 | -19.2 | -24.5 | -21.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | FCS @ Rutgers | 13–45 | -31.7 | -20.0 | -32.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 3 | UConn @ Army | 21–52 | -18.0 | -34.5 | -31.0 | 13.0 |
| 2021 | 3 | Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts | 42–28 | +48.5 | +22.0 | +14.0 | 34.5 |
| 2021 | 3 | Oklahoma State @ Boise State | 21–20 | -8.0 | -3.5 | +1.0 | 9.0 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.