Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 4 | Louisiana Tech @ South Alabama | 14–38 | -16.6 | -13.0 | -24.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Middle Tennessee @ Miami | 45–31 | -10.0 | -25.5 | +14.0 | 24.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | North Texas @ Memphis | 34–44 | -16.2 | -12.8 | -10.0 | 6.2 |
| 2022 | 4 | Rice @ Houston | 27–34 | -7.8 | -17.5 | -7.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | Boise State @ UTEP | 10–27 | +10.8 | +16.3 | -17.0 | 27.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 4 | FCS @ UTSA | 24–52 | -29.3 | -42.0 | -28.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | UL Monroe @ Alabama | 7–63 | -32.7 | -49.5 | -56.0 | 23.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Arkansas | 27–38 | -40.3 | -26.0 | -11.0 | 29.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | Penn State @ Auburn | 41–12 | +1.7 | +2.5 | +29.0 | 27.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | South Florida @ Florida | 28–31 | -12.2 | -23.5 | -3.0 | 9.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Kentucky | 0–31 | -39.9 | -30.0 | -31.0 | 8.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | Mississippi State @ LSU | 16–31 | -1.8 | +3.0 | -15.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech | 42–0 | +10.3 | +17.0 | +42.0 | 31.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Missouri | 17–34 | -27.9 | -31.5 | -17.0 | 10.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Georgia @ South Carolina | 48–7 | +12.1 | +25.5 | +41.0 | 28.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | Akron @ Tennessee | 6–63 | -33.3 | -47.5 | -57.0 | 23.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | Miami @ Texas A&M | 9–17 | -1.4 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 6.6 |
| 2022 | 3 | Vanderbilt @ Northern Illinois | 38–28 | +1.6 | -2.5 | +10.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Arizona | 28–31 | -26.7 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 23.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | Eastern Michigan @ Arizona State | 30–21 | -20.8 | -20.5 | +9.0 | 29.8 |
| 2022 | 3 | California @ Notre Dame | 17–24 | -12.8 | -13.5 | -7.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Colorado @ Minnesota | 7–49 | -20.5 | -28.0 | -42.0 | 21.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | BYU @ Oregon | 20–41 | -5.5 | -3.5 | -21.0 | 15.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS vs Oregon State | 28–68 | -31.0 | -17.0 | -40.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | South Alabama @ UCLA | 31–32 | -20.3 | -15.5 | -1.0 | 19.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | Fresno State @ USC | 17–45 | -5.9 | -11.8 | -28.0 | 22.1 |
| 2022 | 3 | San Diego State @ Utah | 7–35 | -22.9 | -22.5 | -28.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Michigan State @ Washington | 28–39 | +2.6 | -3.5 | -11.0 | 13.6 |
| 2022 | 3 | Colorado State @ Washington State | 7–38 | -15.7 | -17.0 | -31.0 | 15.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | Kansas @ Houston | 48–30 | -9.0 | -8.5 | +18.0 | 27.0 |
| 2022 | 3 | Ohio @ Iowa State | 10–43 | -19.8 | -20.0 | -33.0 | 13.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | Oklahoma @ Nebraska | 49–14 | +9.3 | +10.5 | +35.0 | 25.7 |
| 2022 | 3 | Texas State @ Baylor | 7–42 | -22.5 | -30.0 | -35.0 | 12.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | Texas Tech @ NC State | 14–27 | -0.1 | -10.5 | -13.0 | 12.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ West Virginia | 7–65 | -28.7 | -41.0 | -58.0 | 29.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | Tulane @ Kansas State | 17–10 | -7.8 | -13.5 | +7.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Oklahoma State | 7–63 | -40.8 | -54.5 | -56.0 | 15.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Army | 10–49 | -17.8 | -14.0 | -39.0 | 21.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | UConn @ Michigan | 0–59 | -38.4 | -47.5 | -59.0 | 20.6 |
| 2022 | 3 | Liberty @ Wake Forest | 36–37 | -12.1 | -17.5 | -1.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Nevada @ Iowa | 0–27 | -16.1 | -24.0 | -27.0 | 10.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Northwestern | 31–24 | -22.3 | -13.5 | +7.0 | 29.3 |
| 2022 | 3 | Purdue @ Syracuse | 29–32 | +4.1 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 7.1 |
| 2022 | 3 | New Mexico State @ Wisconsin | 7–66 | -28.1 | -37.5 | -59.0 | 30.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | SMU @ Maryland | 27–34 | -7.7 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Toledo @ Ohio State | 21–77 | -24.5 | -31.5 | -56.0 | 31.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | Rutgers @ Temple | 16–14 | +7.6 | +18.0 | +2.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Florida State @ Louisville | 35–31 | +0.1 | +2.5 | +4.0 | 3.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Boston College | 17–38 | -23.4 | -31.0 | -21.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Duke | 20–49 | -18.6 | -30.5 | -29.0 | 10.4 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.