Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	4	App State @ Wyoming	19–22	+2.8	-3.0	-3.0	5.8
2023	4	Georgia Southern @ Ball State	40–3	-4.0	+6.0	+37.0	41.0
2023	4	James Madison @ Utah State	45–38	-1.9	+5.0	+7.0	8.9
2023	4	FCS @ Old Dominion	9–10	-25.9	–	-1.0	24.9
2023	4	Southern Miss @ Arkansas State	37–44	+2.6	+7.0	-7.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Buffalo @ Louisiana	38–45	-22.2	-10.5	-7.0	15.2
2023	4	Central Michigan @ South Alabama	34–30	-20.5	-16.0	+4.0	24.5
2023	4	Nevada @ Texas State	24–35	-24.8	-17.0	-11.0	13.8
2023	4	Ohio @ Bowling Green	38–7	-1.0	+13.0	+31.0	32.0
2023	4	Western Michigan @ Toledo	31–49	-20.2	-21.5	-18.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Kent State @ Fresno State	10–53	-16.3	-27.5	-43.0	26.7
2023	4	FCS @ Miami (OH)	20–62	-32.2	-40.5	-42.0	9.8
2023	4	Boise State @ San Diego State	34–31	+1.2	+6.5	+3.0	1.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	4	Air Force @ San José State	45–20	+0.4	+6.0	+25.0	24.6
2023	3	UTEP @ Arizona	10–31	-16.5	-18.3	-21.0	4.5
2023	3	BYU @ Arkansas	38–31	-14.1	-8.3	+7.0	21.1
2023	3	FCS @ Auburn	13–45	-37.5	-37.5	-32.0	5.5
2023	3	Liberty @ Buffalo	55–27	+4.4	+2.8	+28.0	23.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Northwestern @ Duke	14–38	-14.2	-17.0	-24.0	9.8
2023	3	Tennessee @ Florida	16–29	+1.7	+5.0	-13.0	14.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	South Carolina @ Georgia	14–24	-18.0	-26.5	-10.0	8.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Penn State @ Illinois	30–13	+12.4	+14.0	+17.0	4.6
2023	3	Western Michigan @ Iowa	10–41	-20.3	-28.5	-31.0	10.7
2023	3	Akron @ Kentucky	3–35	-12.7	-25.3	-32.0	19.3
2023	3	North Texas @ Louisiana Tech	40–37	-3.8	-4.5	+3.0	6.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Louisville vs Indiana	21–14	+12.4	+10.0	+7.0	5.4
2023	3	Virginia @ Maryland	14–42	-17.3	-16.3	-28.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Bowling Green @ Michigan	6–31	-24.4	-40.8	-25.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Washington @ Michigan State	41–7	+14.1	+15.0	+34.0	19.9
2023	3	FCS @ Middle Tennessee	14–35	-22.2	-34.5	-21.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	LSU @ Mississippi State	41–14	+6.6	+9.5	+27.0	20.4
2023	3	Kansas State @ Missouri	27–30	+2.7	+3.5	-3.0	5.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Northern Illinois @ Nebraska	11–35	-16.2	-11.5	-24.0	7.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	New Mexico State @ New Mexico	27–17	+2.5	-2.8	+10.0	7.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Minnesota @ North Carolina	13–31	-6.8	-7.0	-18.0	11.2
2023	3	Western Kentucky @ Ohio State	10–63	-18.4	-29.5	-53.0	34.6
2023	3	Georgia Tech @ Ole Miss	23–48	-12.9	-17.0	-25.0	12.1
2023	3	Syracuse @ Purdue	35–20	+7.6	+1.0	+15.0	7.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Virginia Tech @ Rutgers	16–35	-7.7	-6.5	-19.0	11.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Alabama @ South Florida	17–3	+23.2	+34.3	+14.0	9.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	UL Monroe @ Texas A&M	3–47	-25.4	-36.5	-44.0	18.6
2023	3	Florida International @ UConn	24–17	-6.4	-7.0	+7.0	13.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Vanderbilt @ UNLV	37–40	+3.9	+4.5	-3.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Georgia Southern @ Wisconsin	14–35	-11.2	-20.5	-21.0	9.8
2023	3	Fresno State @ Arizona State	29–0	-0.7	+3.8	+29.0	29.7
2023	3	FCS @ California	17–31	-30.4	-14.5	-14.0	16.4
2023	3	Colorado State @ Colorado	35–43	-11.2	-23.0	-8.0	3.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Hawai'i @ Oregon	10–55	-30.6	-38.3	-45.0	14.4
2023	3	San Diego State @ Oregon State	9–26	-23.5	-24.5	-17.0	6.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	FCS @ Stanford	30–23	-21.8	-7.0	+7.0	28.8

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.