Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 4 | TCU @ SMU | 42–66 | -2.7 | +1.5 | -24.0 | 21.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Virginia @ Coastal Carolina | 43–24 | -2.9 | +3.5 | +19.0 | 21.9 |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Troy | 12–34 | -25.4 | -21.5 | -22.0 | 3.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | Kansas State @ BYU | 9–38 | +4.9 | +7.5 | -29.0 | 33.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Houston @ Cincinnati | 0–34 | +2.7 | -4.0 | -34.0 | 36.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | Baylor @ Colorado | 31–38 | -3.6 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Arkansas State @ Iowa State | 7–52 | -11.9 | -20.5 | -45.0 | 33.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | Utah @ Oklahoma State | 22–19 | -7.3 | +1.0 | +3.0 | 10.3 |
| 2024 | 4 | Arizona State @ Texas Tech | 22–30 | -6.4 | -4.5 | -8.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Kansas @ West Virginia | 28–32 | +3.1 | -1.5 | -4.0 | 7.1 |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Boise State | 14–56 | -36.3 | -42.8 | -42.0 | 5.7 |
| 2024 | 4 | East Carolina @ Liberty | 24–35 | -7.8 | -7.5 | -11.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Southern Miss @ Jacksonville State | 7–44 | +0.4 | -6.0 | -37.0 | 37.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | Tulsa @ Louisiana Tech | 23–20 | +1.2 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | UTEP @ Colorado State | 17–27 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -10.0 | 4.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | New Mexico State @ Sam Houston | 11–31 | -18.8 | -15.0 | -20.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Toledo @ Western Kentucky | 21–26 | +5.4 | +2.5 | -5.0 | 10.4 |
| 2024 | 4 | Fresno State @ New Mexico | 38–21 | +13.1 | +12.0 | +17.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Hawai'i | 7–36 | -21.3 | -10.3 | -29.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Nevada | 16–49 | -19.9 | -13.5 | -33.0 | 13.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | San José State @ Washington State | 52–54 | -13.6 | -13.0 | -2.0 | 11.6 |
| 2024 | 4 | Utah State @ Temple | 29–45 | +0.5 | +6.5 | -16.0 | 16.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Wyoming @ North Texas | 17–44 | -7.4 | -7.0 | -27.0 | 19.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Purdue @ Oregon State | 21–38 | -5.6 | -1.5 | -17.0 | 11.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | South Alabama @ App State | 48–14 | +7.0 | -7.5 | +34.0 | 27.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Tulane @ Louisiana | 41–33 | +1.5 | +1.5 | +8.0 | 6.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | Ball State @ Central Michigan | 34–37 | -5.0 | -6.5 | -3.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 4 | Buffalo @ Northern Illinois | 23–20 | -13.2 | -13.0 | +3.0 | 16.2 |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ Eastern Michigan | 0–36 | -16.5 | -25.5 | -36.0 | 19.5 |
| 2024 | 4 | Rice @ Army | 14–37 | +0.8 | -7.5 | -23.0 | 23.8 |
| 2024 | 4 | Memphis @ Navy | 44–56 | +19.6 | +8.5 | -12.0 | 31.6 |
| 2024 | 4 | FCS @ UTSA | 7–45 | -25.2 | -36.0 | -38.0 | 12.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Alabama @ Wisconsin | 42–10 | +16.8 | +15.5 | +32.0 | 15.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | UAB @ Arkansas | 27–37 | -13.3 | -23.5 | -10.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | New Mexico @ Auburn | 19–45 | -23.4 | -25.5 | -26.0 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | 3 | Texas A&M @ Florida | 33–20 | -2.3 | +3.5 | +13.0 | 15.3 |
| 2024 | 3 | Georgia @ Kentucky | 13–12 | +17.1 | +22.0 | +1.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Ole Miss @ Wake Forest | 40–6 | +18.9 | +20.5 | +34.0 | 15.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | Toledo @ Mississippi State | 41–17 | -5.9 | -10.5 | +24.0 | 29.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Boston College @ Missouri | 21–27 | -13.3 | -14.5 | -6.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Tulane @ Oklahoma | 19–34 | -13.2 | -13.5 | -15.0 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | LSU @ South Carolina | 36–33 | -2.1 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 5.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | Kent State @ Tennessee | 0–71 | -38.0 | -49.5 | -71.0 | 33.0 |
| 2024 | 3 | UTSA @ Texas | 7–56 | -24.4 | -35.5 | -49.0 | 24.6 |
| 2024 | 3 | Vanderbilt @ Georgia State | 32–36 | +3.1 | +9.0 | -4.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Central Michigan @ Illinois | 9–30 | -17.8 | -21.0 | -21.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 3 | Indiana @ UCLA | 42–13 | -4.8 | +3.5 | +29.0 | 33.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Troy @ Iowa | 21–38 | -7.3 | -23.5 | -17.0 | 9.7 |
| 2024 | 3 | Maryland @ Virginia | 27–13 | +6.3 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Arkansas State @ Michigan | 18–28 | -22.5 | -22.0 | -10.0 | 12.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.