Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | Temple @ Georgia Tech | 24–45 | -18.6 | -24.5 | -21.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Virginia Tech | 6–38 | -25.0 | -35.0 | -32.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 | 4 | SMU @ TCU | 24–35 | +1.0 | -6.5 | -11.0 | 12.0 |
| 2025 | 4 | North Carolina @ UCF | 9–34 | -12.5 | -7.0 | -25.0 | 12.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Bowling Green @ Louisville | 17–40 | -16.6 | -26.5 | -23.0 | 6.4 |
| 2025 | 4 | Arizona State @ Baylor | 27–24 | +2.2 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Wyoming @ Colorado | 20–37 | -17.1 | -12.5 | -17.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | BYU @ East Carolina | 34–13 | +0.7 | +6.5 | +21.0 | 20.3 |
| 2025 | 4 | West Virginia @ Kansas | 10–41 | -7.3 | -12.5 | -31.0 | 23.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | Tulsa @ Oklahoma State | 19–12 | -7.9 | -10.0 | +7.0 | 14.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Texas Tech @ Utah | 34–10 | -2.4 | -3.5 | +24.0 | 26.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Ball State @ UConn | 25–31 | -21.7 | -21.0 | -6.0 | 15.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | Delaware @ Florida International | 38–16 | -8.3 | -4.0 | +22.0 | 30.3 |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Jacksonville State | 10–45 | -27.9 | -35.5 | -35.0 | 7.1 |
| 2025 | 4 | Arkansas State @ Kennesaw State | 21–28 | +3.2 | +4.5 | -7.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | James Madison @ Liberty | 31–13 | -1.9 | +7.5 | +18.0 | 19.9 |
| 2025 | 4 | Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech | 20–30 | -11.6 | -3.0 | -10.0 | 1.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Marshall @ Middle Tennessee | 42–28 | +7.7 | +2.5 | +14.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Missouri State | 10–42 | -21.0 | -14.5 | -32.0 | 11.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | UL Monroe @ UTEP | 31–25 | -15.9 | -5.5 | +6.0 | 21.9 |
| 2025 | 4 | Nevada @ Western Kentucky | 16–31 | -11.8 | -7.5 | -15.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Boise State @ Air Force | 49–37 | +5.5 | +11.0 | +12.0 | 6.5 |
| 2025 | 4 | UTSA @ Colorado State | 17–16 | +3.5 | +5.0 | +1.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Fresno State @ Hawai'i | 23–21 | +4.4 | +2.5 | +2.0 | 2.4 |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ San José State | 28–31 | -24.1 | -14.0 | -3.0 | 21.1 |
| 2025 | 4 | UNLV @ Miami (OH) | 41–38 | -2.1 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 5.1 |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Utah State | 7–48 | -31.9 | -23.5 | -41.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Georgia Southern | 17–45 | -25.6 | -22.0 | -28.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Louisiana @ Eastern Michigan | 31–34 | +4.7 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 7.7 |
| 2025 | 4 | Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama | 38–20 | -13.8 | -14.5 | +18.0 | 31.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Texas State | 3–35 | -33.3 | -32.5 | -32.0 | 1.3 |
| 2025 | 4 | Troy @ Buffalo | 21–17 | -5.0 | -5.5 | +4.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | Rice @ Charlotte | 28–17 | +6.6 | +1.5 | +11.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | North Texas @ Army | 45–38 | +15.0 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 8.0 |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ South Florida | 14–63 | -33.2 | -36.0 | -49.0 | 15.8 |
| 2025 | 4 | Toledo @ Western Michigan | 13–14 | +15.3 | +13.0 | -1.0 | 16.3 |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Akron | 7–51 | -18.1 | -10.5 | -44.0 | 25.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Central Michigan | 10–49 | -13.6 | -29.5 | -39.0 | 25.4 |
| 2025 | 4 | FCS @ Ohio | 35–52 | -33.9 | -30.5 | -17.0 | 16.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | Wisconsin @ Alabama | 14–38 | -16.7 | -18.5 | -24.0 | 7.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | South Alabama @ Auburn | 15–31 | -21.0 | -26.5 | -16.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Eastern Michigan @ Kentucky | 23–48 | -22.8 | -26.5 | -25.0 | 2.2 |
| 2025 | 3 | Florida @ LSU | 10–20 | -5.4 | -5.0 | -10.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Arkansas @ Ole Miss | 35–41 | -7.2 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Mississippi State | 0–63 | -36.1 | -42.8 | -63.0 | 26.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | Louisiana @ Missouri | 10–52 | -22.1 | -27.5 | -42.0 | 19.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | Oklahoma @ Temple | 42–3 | +14.2 | +23.5 | +39.0 | 24.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | Vanderbilt @ South Carolina | 31–7 | -3.3 | -3.0 | +24.0 | 27.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | Georgia @ Tennessee | 44–41 | -1.6 | +3.5 | +3.0 | 4.6 |
| 2025 | 3 | UTEP @ Texas | 10–27 | -27.5 | -39.5 | -17.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.