Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	3	Baylor @ Kansas	45–7	+8.7	+17.0	+38.0	29.3
2021	3	Nevada @ Kansas State	17–38	+2.3	+1.5	-21.0	23.3
2021	3	Iowa State @ UNLV	48–3	+23.6	+32.0	+45.0	21.4
2021	3	FCS @ Houston	0–45	-29.2	-41.0	-45.0	15.8
2021	3	FCS @ South Florida	17–38	-17.2	-22.5	-21.0	3.8
2021	3	FCS @ Miami (OH)	7–42	-25.0	-39.3	-35.0	10.0
2021	3	Ball State @ Wyoming	12–45	-0.3	-6.5	-33.0	32.7
2021	3	FCS @ Akron	14–35	-7.1	-13.0	-21.0	13.9
2021	3	FCS @ Bowling Green	10–27	-3.6	+2.5	-17.0	13.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	Coastal Carolina @ Buffalo	28–25	+8.1	+14.0	+3.0	5.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	Colorado State @ Toledo	22–6	-15.4	-14.5	+16.0	31.4
2021	3	FCS @ App State	10–44	-33.7	-35.5	-34.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	Arkansas State @ Washington	3–52	-12.7	-17.5	-49.0	36.3
2021	3	Ohio @ Louisiana	14–49	-11.3	-19.0	-35.0	23.7
2021	3	FCS @ UL Monroe	7–12	-9.6	-4.5	-5.0	4.6
2021	3	FCS @ South Alabama	21–28	-20.6	-21.5	-7.0	13.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	FCS @ Texas State	42–34	-22.5	-11.0	+8.0	30.5
2021	3	FCS @ California	30–42	-34.6	-24.5	-12.0	22.6
2021	3	FCS @ Oregon	7–48	-38.5	-42.0	-41.0	2.5
2021	3	FCS @ Oregon State	0–42	-34.2	-28.0	-42.0	7.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	USC @ Washington State	45–14	+9.0	+7.0	+31.0	22.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	FCS @ Arizona	21–19	-16.6	-26.5	+2.0	18.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	Arizona State @ BYU	17–27	+3.2	+3.5	-10.0	13.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	Fresno State @ UCLA	40–37	-10.7	-11.0	+3.0	13.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	Utah @ San Diego State	31–33	-4.5	+8.0	-2.0	2.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	Utah State @ Air Force	49–45	-3.3	-9.0	+4.0	7.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	San José State @ Hawai'i	17–13	+1.3	+8.0	+4.0	2.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	3	FCS @ New Mexico State	35–43	-17.0	-3.5	-8.0	9.0
2021	2	FCS @ Alabama	14–48	-48.1	-54.0	-34.0	14.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Texas @ Arkansas	21–40	+7.5	+6.0	-19.0	26.5
2021	2	FCS @ Auburn	0–62	-35.1	-49.5	-62.0	26.9
2021	2	Florida @ South Florida	42–20	+15.5	+29.0	+22.0	6.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	UAB @ Georgia	7–56	-22.9	-22.5	-49.0	26.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Missouri @ Kentucky	28–35	-3.1	-5.5	-7.0	3.9
2021	2	FCS @ LSU	7–34	-35.1	-39.0	-27.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Ole Miss	17–54	-36.8	-37.0	-37.0	0.2
2021	2	NC State @ Mississippi State	10–24	-2.1	+1.5	-14.0	11.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	South Carolina @ East Carolina	20–17	-4.3	+3.0	+3.0	7.3
2021	2	Pittsburgh @ Tennessee	41–34	+0.1	+3.5	+7.0	6.9
2021	2	Texas A&M vs Colorado	10–7	+17.4	+17.0	+3.0	14.4
2021	2	Vanderbilt @ Colorado State	24–21	-2.3	-6.5	+3.0	5.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Charlotte	10–38	-14.9	-23.0	-28.0	13.1
2021	2	Texas State @ Florida International	23–17	-8.3	-2.0	+6.0	14.3
2021	2	Georgia Southern @ Florida Atlantic	6–38	+0.3	-7.0	-32.0	32.3
2021	2	FCS @ Louisiana Tech	42–45	-16.2	-11.5	-3.0	13.2
2021	2	FCS @ Marshall	10–44	-24.4	-43.0	-34.0	9.6
2021	2	Middle Tennessee @ Virginia Tech	14–35	-13.8	-20.0	-21.0	7.2
2021	2	North Texas @ SMU	12–35	-11.7	-22.5	-23.0	11.3
2021	2	FCS @ Old Dominion	7–47	-18.3	-21.5	-40.0	21.7
2021	2	Houston @ Rice	44–7	+3.0	+7.5	+37.0	34.0

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.