Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3 | Old Dominion @ Virginia | 14–16 | -7.4 | -8.3 | -2.0 | 5.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Virginia Tech | 7–27 | -24.1 | -39.0 | -20.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Pittsburgh @ Western Michigan | 34–13 | -0.5 | +10.0 | +21.0 | 21.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Tulsa | 17–54 | -28.9 | -12.0 | -37.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Massachusetts | 3–20 | -7.3 | -1.0 | -17.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Marshall @ Bowling Green | 31–34 | +9.3 | +17.0 | -3.0 | 12.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Southern Miss | 10–64 | -19.4 | -32.8 | -54.0 | 34.6 |
| 2022 | 3 | Air Force @ Wyoming | 14–17 | +6.1 | +16.5 | -3.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Boise State | 7–30 | -30.1 | -24.8 | -23.0 | 7.1 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Hawai'i | 14–24 | -16.6 | – | -10.0 | 6.6 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ East Carolina | 10–49 | -31.1 | -32.5 | -39.0 | 7.9 |
| 2022 | 3 | Arkansas State @ Memphis | 32–44 | -11.1 | -14.5 | -12.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) | 38–17 | +9.8 | +24.0 | +21.0 | 11.2 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Ball State | 0–31 | -16.5 | -21.0 | -31.0 | 14.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | Buffalo @ Coastal Carolina | 26–38 | -14.4 | -12.0 | -12.0 | 2.4 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Central Michigan | 0–41 | -27.0 | -41.0 | -41.0 | 14.0 |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Kent State | 10–63 | -19.0 | -40.0 | -53.0 | 34.0 |
| 2022 | 3 | Troy @ App State | 28–32 | -11.1 | -14.0 | -4.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Charlotte @ Georgia State | 42–41 | -23.0 | -19.5 | +1.0 | 24.0 |
| 2022 | 3 | UCF @ Florida Atlantic | 40–14 | +0.5 | +7.5 | +26.0 | 25.5 |
| 2022 | 3 | Louisiana Tech @ Clemson | 20–48 | -26.9 | -33.5 | -28.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | FCS @ Middle Tennessee | 6–49 | -23.0 | -19.5 | -43.0 | 20.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | North Texas @ UNLV | 27–58 | -0.6 | -2.5 | -31.0 | 30.4 |
| 2022 | 3 | Louisiana @ Rice | 21–33 | +7.4 | +11.5 | -12.0 | 19.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Georgia Southern @ UAB | 21–35 | -10.2 | -11.5 | -14.0 | 3.8 |
| 2022 | 3 | UTEP @ New Mexico | 10–27 | +1.5 | +2.0 | -17.0 | 18.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | UTSA @ Texas | 20–41 | -16.1 | -13.0 | -21.0 | 4.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 3 | Western Kentucky @ Indiana | 30–33 | +8.1 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 11.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | Alabama @ Texas | 20–19 | +11.1 | +21.3 | +1.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | South Carolina @ Arkansas | 30–44 | -5.9 | -9.0 | -14.0 | 8.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | San José State @ Auburn | 16–24 | -21.0 | -24.0 | -8.0 | 13.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | Kentucky @ Florida | 26–16 | +4.9 | -6.0 | +10.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Georgia | 0–33 | -54.3 | -53.0 | -33.0 | 21.3 |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ LSU | 17–65 | -33.3 | -44.5 | -48.0 | 14.7 |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Ole Miss | 3–59 | -32.7 | -36.5 | -56.0 | 23.3 |
| 2022 | 2 | Mississippi State @ Arizona | 39–17 | -0.5 | +12.5 | +22.0 | 22.5 |
| 2022 | 2 | Missouri @ Kansas State | 12–40 | -9.0 | -7.0 | -28.0 | 19.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | Tennessee @ Pittsburgh | 34–27 | +4.0 | +6.0 | +7.0 | 3.0 |
| 2022 | 2 | App State @ Texas A&M | 17–14 | -15.8 | -18.0 | +3.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | Wake Forest @ Vanderbilt | 45–25 | -0.4 | +13.5 | +20.0 | 20.4 |
| 2022 | 2 | Arizona State @ Oklahoma State | 17–34 | -12.7 | -11.8 | -17.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | UNLV @ California | 14–20 | -9.3 | -12.5 | -6.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | Colorado @ Air Force | 10–41 | -3.6 | -17.5 | -31.0 | 27.4 |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Oregon | 14–70 | -32.4 | -27.0 | -56.0 | 23.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | Oregon State @ Fresno State | 35–32 | -1.7 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 4.7 |
| 2022 | 2 | USC @ Stanford | 41–28 | +5.4 | +9.5 | +13.0 | 7.6 |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ UCLA | 7–45 | -41.8 | -48.5 | -38.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Utah | 7–73 | -41.1 | -45.5 | -66.0 | 24.9 |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Washington | 6–52 | -30.9 | -31.0 | -46.0 | 15.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | Washington State @ Wisconsin | 17–14 | -13.9 | -17.5 | +3.0 | 16.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.