Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	3	FCS @ UCLA	7–59	-37.0	-35.0	-52.0	15.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	FCS @ Utah	7–31	-38.6	-26.5	-24.0	14.6
2023	3	FCS @ Washington State	21–64	-30.9	-48.0	-43.0	12.1
2023	3	Central Michigan @ Notre Dame	17–41	-33.5	-34.8	-24.0	9.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	FCS @ Miami	7–48	-36.1	-54.0	-41.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Florida State @ Boston College	31–29	+24.3	+25.3	+2.0	22.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Florida Atlantic @ Clemson	14–48	-20.7	-25.0	-34.0	13.3
2023	3	FCS @ NC State	7–45	-27.8	-42.5	-38.0	10.2
2023	3	Pittsburgh @ West Virginia	6–17	-4.1	-2.5	-11.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Wake Forest @ Old Dominion	27–24	+10.5	+13.8	+3.0	7.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	FCS @ Baylor	7–30	-28.8	-44.0	-23.0	5.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati	31–24	-14.8	-14.3	+7.0	21.8
2023	3	TCU @ Houston	36–13	+2.0	+7.3	+23.0	21.0
2023	3	Kansas @ Nevada	31–24	+23.3	+28.5	+7.0	16.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Iowa State @ Ohio	7–10	-1.3	+2.0	-3.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	South Alabama @ Oklahoma State	33–7	-4.6	-7.0	+26.0	30.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Wyoming @ Texas	10–31	-27.0	-31.0	-21.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	FCS @ Texas Tech	3–41	-33.3	-36.5	-38.0	4.7
2023	3	Oklahoma @ Tulsa	66–17	+14.4	+28.0	+49.0	34.6
2023	3	FCS @ UCF	14–48	-33.0	-26.5	-34.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Massachusetts @ Eastern Michigan	17–19	-7.6	-7.5	-2.0	5.6
2023	3	Tulane @ Southern Miss	21–3	+6.3	+7.8	+18.0	11.7
2023	3	Louisiana @ UAB	41–21	-4.1	-2.0	+20.0	24.1
2023	3	FCS @ Temple	9–41	-22.1	-30.5	-32.0	9.9
2023	3	Army @ UTSA	37–29	-11.4	-7.0	+8.0	19.4
2023	3	Georgia State @ Charlotte	41–25	+4.8	+6.3	+16.0	11.2
2023	3	East Carolina @ App State	28–43	-8.7	-7.5	-15.0	6.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	Navy @ Memphis	24–28	-18.5	-12.3	-4.0	14.5
2023	3	FCS @ SMU	0–69	-30.3	-42.5	-69.0	38.7
2023	3	FCS @ Rice	7–59	-20.6	-35.5	-52.0	31.4
2023	3	FCS @ Coastal Carolina	7–66	-23.7	-35.0	-59.0	35.3
2023	3	FCS @ Arkansas State	7–31	-7.8	-24.0	-24.0	16.2
2023	3	FCS @ Texas State	34–77	-22.8	-17.5	-43.0	20.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	James Madison @ Troy	16–14	-6.3	-2.5	+2.0	8.3
2023	3	FCS @ Ball State	7–45	-16.5	-26.0	-38.0	21.5
2023	3	San José State @ Toledo	17–21	-8.6	-9.0	-4.0	4.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	3	FCS @ Kent State	10–38	-13.4	-21.5	-28.0	14.6
2023	3	Utah State @ Air Force	21–39	-1.5	-8.8	-18.0	16.5
2023	3	FCS @ Boise State	18–42	-28.3	-15.0	-24.0	4.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Texas @ Alabama	34–24	-8.5	-7.0	+10.0	18.5
2023	2	Kent State @ Arkansas	6–28	-22.2	-38.5	-22.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Army	0–57	-18.5	-39.5	-57.0	38.5
2023	2	Auburn @ California	14–10	+1.6	+5.0	+4.0	2.4
2023	2	Jacksonville State @ Coastal Carolina	16–30	-7.3	-13.5	-14.0	6.7
2023	2	Nebraska @ Colorado	14–36	+4.8	-3.0	-22.0	26.8
2023	2	North Texas @ Florida International	39–46	+1.7	+10.5	-7.0	8.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Florida	7–49	-35.4	-48.5	-42.0	6.6
2023	2	Ball State @ Georgia	3–45	-34.2	-42.0	-42.0	7.8
2023	2	UConn @ Georgia State	14–35	-5.9	-3.0	-21.0	15.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Indiana	7–41	-24.6	-31.0	-34.0	9.4

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.