Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Michigan State | 0–40 | -26.6 | -42.5 | -40.0 | 13.4 |
| 2024 | 3 | Nevada @ Minnesota | 0–27 | -15.3 | -17.0 | -27.0 | 11.7 |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Nebraska | 3–34 | -36.1 | -30.5 | -31.0 | 5.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | Oregon @ Oregon State | 49–14 | +10.2 | +18.0 | +35.0 | 24.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Washington State vs Washington | 24–19 | -4.8 | -5.5 | +5.0 | 9.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Notre Dame @ Purdue | 66–7 | +8.3 | +7.5 | +59.0 | 50.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | UConn @ Duke | 21–26 | -10.9 | -17.0 | -5.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Massachusetts @ Buffalo | 3–34 | +2.4 | -3.5 | -31.0 | 33.4 |
| 2024 | 3 | San Diego State @ California | 10–31 | -11.3 | -18.5 | -21.0 | 9.7 |
| 2024 | 3 | Memphis @ Florida State | 20–12 | +2.1 | -7.0 | +8.0 | 5.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Georgia Tech | 7–59 | -38.2 | -42.5 | -52.0 | 13.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Ball State @ Miami | 0–62 | -21.8 | -36.5 | -62.0 | 40.2 |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ North Carolina | 10–45 | -32.5 | -37.5 | -35.0 | 2.5 |
| 2024 | 3 | Louisiana Tech @ NC State | 20–30 | -20.2 | -20.5 | -10.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | West Virginia @ Pittsburgh | 34–38 | +1.7 | +2.0 | -4.0 | 5.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion | 37–17 | +14.0 | +15.5 | +20.0 | 6.0 |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Western Michigan | 31–59 | -18.2 | -33.5 | -28.0 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Air Force @ Baylor | 3–31 | -16.5 | -17.0 | -28.0 | 11.5 |
| 2024 | 3 | Colorado @ Colorado State | 28–9 | +4.2 | +7.5 | +19.0 | 14.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Rice @ Houston | 7–33 | -6.7 | -4.5 | -26.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | UNLV vs Kansas | 23–20 | -7.8 | -9.5 | +3.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Arizona @ Kansas State | 7–31 | -2.6 | -7.0 | -24.0 | 21.4 |
| 2024 | 3 | Cincinnati @ Miami (OH) | 27–16 | -3.4 | +3.0 | +11.0 | 14.4 |
| 2024 | 3 | UCF @ TCU | 35–34 | -0.3 | -2.5 | +1.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Arizona State @ Texas State | 31–28 | -1.0 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | North Texas @ Texas Tech | 21–66 | -7.8 | -10.5 | -45.0 | 37.2 |
| 2024 | 3 | Oklahoma State @ Tulsa | 45–10 | +5.1 | +17.5 | +35.0 | 29.9 |
| 2024 | 3 | Utah @ Utah State | 38–21 | +15.2 | +20.5 | +17.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | BYU @ Wyoming | 34–14 | +9.3 | +9.5 | +20.0 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 3 | Florida International @ Florida Atlantic | 20–38 | -2.2 | -3.5 | -18.0 | 15.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | UTEP @ Liberty | 10–28 | -17.2 | -23.5 | -18.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | Jacksonville State @ Eastern Michigan | 34–37 | +2.9 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 5.9 |
| 2024 | 3 | Kennesaw State @ San José State | 10–31 | -13.4 | -17.0 | -21.0 | 7.6 |
| 2024 | 3 | Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee | 49–21 | -1.7 | +7.5 | +28.0 | 29.7 |
| 2024 | 3 | New Mexico State @ Fresno State | 0–48 | -16.2 | -20.0 | -48.0 | 31.8 |
| 2024 | 3 | Hawai'i @ Sam Houston | 13–31 | -1.5 | -4.0 | -18.0 | 16.5 |
| 2024 | 3 | App State @ East Carolina | 21–19 | +0.7 | +1.5 | +2.0 | 1.3 |
| 2024 | 3 | Coastal Carolina @ Temple | 28–20 | +11.3 | +17.5 | +8.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Georgia Southern | 14–42 | -18.5 | -27.5 | -28.0 | 9.5 |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ South Alabama | 10–87 | -29.0 | -36.5 | -77.0 | 48.0 |
| 2024 | 3 | South Florida @ Southern Miss | 49–24 | +11.5 | +11.5 | +25.0 | 13.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Akron | 20–31 | -15.2 | -13.5 | -11.0 | 4.2 |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Ohio | 6–21 | -22.3 | -24.5 | -15.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS @ Charlotte | 26–27 | -19.1 | -14.0 | -1.0 | 18.1 |
| 2024 | 3 | FCS vs Northwestern | 7–31 | -28.4 | -26.5 | -24.0 | 4.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | South Florida @ Alabama | 16–42 | -18.9 | -31.0 | -26.0 | 7.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | Arkansas @ Oklahoma State | 31–39 | -1.3 | -10.0 | -8.0 | 6.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | California @ Auburn | 21–14 | -11.8 | -12.5 | +7.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Florida | 7–45 | -37.4 | -38.5 | -38.0 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Georgia | 3–48 | -57.0 | -54.5 | -45.0 | 12.0 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.