Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | Texas A&M @ Notre Dame | 41–40 | -9.3 | -6.5 | +1.0 | 10.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | Ohio @ Ohio State | 9–37 | -24.9 | -28.5 | -28.0 | 3.1 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Nebraska | 7–59 | -43.5 | -48.5 | -52.0 | 8.5 |
| 2025 | 3 | Western Michigan @ Illinois | 0–38 | -21.6 | -27.5 | -38.0 | 16.4 |
| 2025 | 3 | Massachusetts @ Iowa | 7–47 | -20.7 | -35.5 | -40.0 | 19.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | Oregon @ Northwestern | 34–14 | +18.7 | +25.5 | +20.0 | 1.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | USC @ Purdue | 33–17 | +17.5 | +20.5 | +16.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Rutgers | 10–60 | -36.3 | -44.5 | -50.0 | 13.7 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Michigan State | 24–41 | -29.2 | -23.5 | -17.0 | 12.2 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Penn State | 6–52 | -49.5 | -47.5 | -46.0 | 3.5 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Indiana | 0–73 | -39.0 | -47.5 | -73.0 | 34.0 |
| 2025 | 3 | New Mexico @ UCLA | 35–10 | -17.4 | -15.5 | +25.0 | 42.4 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Maryland | 17–44 | -29.8 | -28.5 | -27.0 | 2.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | Central Michigan @ Michigan | 3–63 | -29.1 | -27.5 | -60.0 | 30.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Minnesota @ California | 14–27 | +7.7 | +3.0 | -13.0 | 20.7 |
| 2025 | 3 | Oregon State @ Texas Tech | 14–45 | -19.2 | -24.0 | -31.0 | 11.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | Washington State @ North Texas | 10–59 | -9.8 | -6.5 | -49.0 | 39.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | NC State @ Wake Forest | 34–24 | +6.2 | +7.5 | +10.0 | 3.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Syracuse | 24–66 | -32.8 | -36.5 | -42.0 | 9.2 |
| 2025 | 3 | Boston College @ Stanford | 20–30 | +5.2 | +14.0 | -10.0 | 15.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Duke @ Tulane | 27–34 | -8.4 | -1.5 | -7.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | South Florida @ Miami | 12–49 | -8.1 | -17.5 | -37.0 | 28.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | Old Dominion @ Virginia Tech | 45–26 | +0.2 | -5.5 | +19.0 | 18.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | SMU @ Missouri State | 28–10 | +12.0 | +28.5 | +18.0 | 6.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Virginia | 16–55 | -32.1 | -30.5 | -39.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Clemson @ Georgia Tech | 21–24 | -1.9 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Pittsburgh @ West Virginia | 24–31 | -0.6 | +7.0 | -7.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ North Carolina | 6–41 | -27.4 | -24.5 | -35.0 | 7.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Kansas State @ Arizona | 17–23 | -4.0 | +1.5 | -6.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Texas State @ Arizona State | 15–34 | -11.0 | -18.5 | -19.0 | 8.0 |
| 2025 | 3 | Iowa State @ Arkansas State | 24–16 | +10.7 | +21.0 | +8.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Baylor | 7–42 | -40.0 | -52.0 | -35.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Cincinnati | 0–70 | -33.1 | -48.5 | -70.0 | 36.9 |
| 2025 | 3 | Colorado @ Houston | 20–36 | -3.8 | -4.0 | -16.0 | 12.2 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ TCU | 21–42 | -42.3 | -42.0 | -21.0 | 21.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | Utah @ Wyoming | 31–6 | +8.6 | +24.5 | +25.0 | 16.4 |
| 2025 | 3 | UConn @ Delaware | 41–44 | +15.0 | +8.5 | -3.0 | 18.0 |
| 2025 | 3 | Florida Atlantic @ Florida International | 28–38 | -6.3 | -2.0 | -10.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Jacksonville State @ Georgia Southern | 34–41 | +3.8 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 10.8 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Kennesaw State | 13–27 | -11.3 | -17.5 | -14.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Liberty @ Bowling Green | 13–23 | +2.0 | +6.0 | -10.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech | 14–49 | -10.7 | -10.0 | -35.0 | 24.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Middle Tennessee @ Nevada | 14–13 | -7.8 | -9.5 | +1.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | Air Force @ Utah State | 30–49 | -3.6 | +4.0 | -19.0 | 15.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Fresno State | 7–56 | -25.0 | -37.5 | -49.0 | 24.0 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Hawai'i | 3–23 | -21.0 | -36.5 | -20.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | East Carolina @ Coastal Carolina | 38–0 | +7.9 | +7.0 | +38.0 | 30.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Georgia State | 21–37 | -20.6 | -31.5 | -16.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Marshall | 7–38 | -28.1 | -15.0 | -31.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | App State @ Southern Miss | 22–38 | +7.5 | +3.0 | -16.0 | 23.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.