Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	2	FCS @ Southern Miss	0–37	-16.5	-23.0	-37.0	20.5
2021	2	UTEP @ Boise State	13–54	-9.8	-25.0	-41.0	31.2
2021	2	FCS @ UTSA	0–54	-30.5	-38.0	-54.0	23.5
2021	2	Western Kentucky @ Army	35–38	-9.3	-6.0	-3.0	6.3
2021	2	FCS @ Clemson	3–49	-37.6	-50.5	-46.0	8.4
2021	2	FCS @ Duke	17–45	-14.6	-22.5	-28.0	13.4
2021	2	FCS @ Florida State	20–17	-26.6	-27.5	+3.0	29.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Georgia Tech	17–45	-26.1	-20.0	-28.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Louisville	3–30	-29.6	-30.0	-27.0	2.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	App State @ Miami	23–25	-5.0	-7.5	-2.0	3.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Georgia State @ North Carolina	17–59	-11.3	-26.0	-42.0	30.7
2021	2	Rutgers @ Syracuse	17–7	-0.2	+2.5	+10.0	10.2
2021	2	Boston College @ Massachusetts	45–28	+65.9	+39.0	+17.0	48.9
2021	2	Illinois @ Virginia	14–42	-6.8	-10.5	-28.0	21.2
2021	2	FCS @ Wake Forest	16–41	-30.0	-43.0	-25.0	5.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Toledo @ Notre Dame	29–32	-9.3	-16.5	-3.0	6.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Indiana	14–56	-30.7	-31.5	-42.0	11.3
2021	2	Iowa @ Iowa State	27–17	-1.8	-4.0	+10.0	11.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Washington @ Michigan	10–31	-2.0	-6.5	-21.0	19.0
2021	2	FCS @ Michigan State	14–42	-28.3	-28.5	-28.0	0.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Miami (OH) @ Minnesota	26–31	-12.2	-19.0	-5.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Buffalo @ Nebraska	3–28	-10.1	-13.5	-25.0	14.9
2021	2	FCS @ Northwestern	6–24	-26.4	-28.5	-18.0	8.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Oregon @ Ohio State	35–28	-13.9	-14.5	+7.0	20.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	Ball State @ Penn State	13–44	-14.4	-22.5	-31.0	16.6
2021	2	Purdue @ UConn	49–0	+15.9	+35.0	+49.0	33.1
2021	2	Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin	7–34	-14.0	-26.0	-27.0	13.0
2021	2	FCS @ Maryland	0–62	-27.0	-48.5	-62.0	35.0
2021	2	Liberty @ Troy	21–13	+0.2	+3.0	+8.0	7.8
2021	2	FCS @ Baylor	7–66	-24.4	-44.5	-59.0	34.6
2021	2	Kansas @ Coastal Carolina	22–49	-15.9	-27.0	-27.0	11.1
2021	2	FCS @ Kansas State	23–31	-26.7	-17.0	-8.0	18.7
2021	2	FCS @ Oklahoma	0–76	-43.6	-52.5	-76.0	32.4
2021	2	Tulsa @ Oklahoma State	23–28	-3.0	-11.5	-5.0	2.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	California @ TCU	32–34	-6.0	-11.5	-2.0	4.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Texas Tech	22–28	-25.3	-32.0	-6.0	19.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ West Virginia	0–66	-29.1	-49.5	-66.0	36.9
2021	2	Temple @ Akron	45–24	+1.8	+6.5	+21.0	19.2
2021	2	FCS @ Tulane	20–69	-26.5	-47.5	-49.0	22.5
2021	2	FCS @ UCF	14–63	-27.5	-46.0	-49.0	21.5
2021	2	FCS @ Cincinnati	7–42	-39.6	-36.5	-35.0	4.6
2021	2	Memphis @ Arkansas State	55–50	+1.7	+5.5	+5.0	3.3
2021	2	Air Force @ Navy	23–3	+10.1	+6.0	+20.0	9.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Western Michigan	0–28	-22.0	-12.5	-28.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	FCS @ Kent State	10–60	-22.9	-20.0	-50.0	27.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	2	South Alabama @ Bowling Green	22–19	+15.0	+14.5	+3.0	12.0
2021	2	Wyoming @ Northern Illinois	50–43	+2.6	+7.0	+7.0	4.4
2021	2	FCS @ Central Michigan	0–45	-20.4	-37.5	-45.0	24.6
2021	2	FCS @ Louisiana	24–27	-27.6	-26.0	-3.0	24.6
2021	2	FCS @ Ohio	28–26	-18.3	-28.5	+2.0	20.3 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.