Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2022	2	Baylor @ BYU	20–26	+4.8	-2.5	-6.0	10.8
2022	2	Houston @ Texas Tech	30–33	-9.0	-4.0	-3.0	6.0
2022	2	Iowa State @ Iowa	10–7	-1.9	-3.5	+3.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Kansas @ West Virginia	55–42	-7.0	-14.0	+13.0	20.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Kent State @ Oklahoma	3–33	-25.6	-33.3	-30.0	4.4
2022	2	FCS @ TCU	17–59	-32.2	-40.0	-42.0	9.8
2022	2	Marshall @ Notre Dame	26–21	-20.0	-20.5	+5.0	25.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Syracuse @ UConn	48–14	+11.6	+23.5	+34.0	22.4
2022	2	Virginia @ Illinois	3–24	-9.1	-4.0	-21.0	11.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ Minnesota	10–62	-37.8	-41.0	-52.0	14.2
2022	2	Georgia Southern @ Nebraska	45–42	-12.8	-23.5	+3.0	15.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Duke @ Northwestern	31–23	-11.6	-10.0	+8.0	19.6
2022	2	FCS @ Purdue	0–56	-34.0	-37.0	-56.0	22.0
2022	2	FCS @ Indiana	22–35	-21.9	-24.5	-13.0	8.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Hawai'i @ Michigan	10–56	-29.0	-52.8	-46.0	17.0
2022	2	Akron @ Michigan State	0–52	-29.5	-34.5	-52.0	22.5
2022	2	Arkansas State @ Ohio State	12–45	-33.1	-44.5	-33.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Ohio @ Penn State	10–46	-21.5	-28.0	-36.0	14.5
2022	2	FCS @ Rutgers	7–66	-21.2	-48.5	-59.0	37.8
2022	2	FCS @ Clemson	12–35	-43.1	-45.5	-23.0	20.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	North Carolina @ Georgia State	35–28	-5.1	+7.0	+7.0	12.1
2022	2	FCS @ Georgia Tech	17–35	-22.5	-24.3	-18.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Southern Miss @ Miami	7–30	-20.8	-27.5	-23.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ NC State	3–55	-34.5	-45.5	-52.0	17.5
2022	2	Boston College @ Virginia Tech	10–27	-0.9	-3.0	-17.0	16.1
2022	2	FCS @ San Diego State	7–38	-22.2	-33.3	-31.0	8.8
2022	2	Massachusetts @ Toledo	10–55	-22.1	-28.0	-45.0	22.9
2022	2	Old Dominion @ East Carolina	21–39	-10.6	-13.0	-18.0	7.4
2022	2	FCS @ Wyoming	10–33	-19.9	-23.5	-23.0	3.1
2022	2	Boise State @ New Mexico	31–14	+11.6	+17.0	+17.0	5.4
2022	2	FCS @ Utah State	35–7	-25.7	-6.5	+28.0	53.7
2022	2	FCS @ Nevada	55–41	-23.0	-4.0	+14.0	37.0
2022	2	Louisville @ UCF	20–14	-5.2	-5.5	+6.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ Temple	14–30	-13.5	-14.0	-16.0	2.5
2022	2	FCS @ Tulane	0–52	-29.7	-35.5	-52.0	22.3
2022	2	FCS @ SMU	16–45	-34.1	-48.5	-29.0	5.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	Memphis @ Navy	37–13	+5.8	+4.5	+24.0	18.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ South Florida	20–42	-19.7	-40.0	-22.0	2.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ Cincinnati	10–63	-34.3	–	-53.0	18.7
2022	2	Northern Illinois @ Tulsa	35–38	-10.1	-6.5	-3.0	7.1
2022	2	Western Michigan @ Ball State	37–30	+12.9	+6.5	+7.0	5.9
2022	2	FCS @ Bowling Green	59–57	-20.2	-7.5	+2.0	22.2
2022	2	FCS @ Buffalo	37–31	-13.3	-6.0	+6.0	19.3
2022	2	South Alabama @ Central Michigan	38–24	-12.2	-6.0	+14.0	26.2
2022	2	Eastern Michigan @ Louisiana	21–49	-13.9	-11.0	-28.0	14.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ Miami (OH)	14–31	-27.6	-30.0	-17.0	10.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ James Madison	7–63	-17.9	-42.0	-56.0	38.1
2022	2	FCS @ UL Monroe	7–35	-19.9	-4.5	-28.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ Troy	17–38	-19.6	-37.5	-21.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2022	2	FCS @ Coastal Carolina	27–31	-26.5	-32.5	-4.0	22.5 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.