Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	2	Iowa @ Iowa State	20–13	+3.2	+3.5	+7.0	3.8
2023	2	Illinois @ Kansas	23–34	-3.3	-3.5	-11.0	7.7
2023	2	FCS @ Kentucky	17–28	-33.8	-35.3	-11.0	22.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Louisiana Tech	21–51	-15.4	-23.0	-30.0	14.6
2023	2	New Mexico State @ Liberty	17–33	+4.4	-9.5	-16.0	20.4
2023	2	FCS @ LSU	10–72	-43.6	-56.5	-62.0	18.4
2023	2	Charlotte @ Maryland	20–38	-17.1	-24.5	-18.0	0.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Texas A&M @ Miami	33–48	+3.4	+3.0	-15.0	18.4
2023	2	UNLV @ Michigan	7–35	-24.2	-38.0	-28.0	3.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Michigan State	14–45	-29.9	-29.5	-31.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Eastern Michigan @ Minnesota	6–25	-12.9	-19.5	-19.0	6.1
2023	2	Arizona @ Mississippi State	24–31	-6.9	-9.0	-7.0	0.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Middle Tennessee @ Missouri	19–23	-15.2	-21.0	-4.0	11.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	UTEP @ Northwestern	7–38	-3.4	-1.0	-31.0	27.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Ohio State	7–35	-46.7	-45.3	-28.0	18.7
2023	2	FCS @ Penn State	7–63	-45.0	-43.8	-56.0	11.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Temple @ Rutgers	7–36	-1.1	-7.5	-29.0	27.9
2023	2	Air Force vs Sam Houston	13–3	+6.2	+13.5	+10.0	3.8
2023	2	FCS @ South Carolina	21–47	-34.2	-18.0	-26.0	8.2
2023	2	FCS @ Tennessee	13–30	-46.5	-46.8	-17.0	29.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Ole Miss @ Tulane	37–20	-0.2	+8.5	+17.0	17.2
2023	2	Purdue @ Virginia Tech	24–17	-5.0	-1.0	+7.0	12.0
2023	2	Vanderbilt @ Wake Forest	20–36	-6.3	-9.5	-16.0	9.7
2023	2	Wisconsin @ Washington State	22–31	+1.5	+5.5	-9.0	10.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Western Kentucky	22–52	-29.6	-41.5	-30.0	0.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Oklahoma State @ Arizona State	27–15	-4.5	+2.5	+12.0	16.5
2023	2	Utah @ Baylor	20–13	+8.8	+7.0	+7.0	1.8
2023	2	FCS @ Oregon State	7–55	-41.1	-23.5	-48.0	6.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	UCLA @ San Diego State	35–10	+5.8	+13.5	+25.0	19.2
2023	2	Oregon @ Texas Tech	38–30	+5.7	+4.5	+8.0	2.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Stanford @ USC	10–56	-19.7	-28.5	-46.0	26.3
2023	2	Tulsa @ Washington	10–43	-19.4	-34.0	-33.0	13.6
2023	2	Notre Dame @ NC State	45–24	+8.0	+7.0	+21.0	13.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ Louisville	0–56	-36.5	-43.5	-56.0	19.5
2023	2	FCS @ Boston College	28–31	-23.6	-10.0	-3.0	20.6
2023	2	FCS @ Clemson	17–66	-39.0	-50.5	-49.0	10.0
2023	2	FCS @ Duke	7–42	-38.3	-41.8	-35.0	3.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Southern Miss @ Florida State	13–66	-23.3	-31.0	-53.0	29.7
2023	2	FCS @ Georgia Tech	13–48	-30.1	-43.0	-35.0	4.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	App State @ North Carolina	34–40	-14.8	-19.5	-6.0	8.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh	27–21	-5.1	-6.5	+6.0	11.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Western Michigan @ Syracuse	7–48	-16.6	-24.5	-41.0	24.4
2023	2	James Madison @ Virginia	36–35	-0.9	+6.0	+1.0	1.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	UCF @ Boise State	18–16	+1.4	+3.0	+2.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ BYU	16–41	-26.4	-30.8	-25.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	Troy @ Kansas State	13–42	-10.5	-15.0	-29.0	18.5
2023	2	SMU @ Oklahoma	11–28	-12.7	-16.5	-17.0	4.3
2023	2	Houston @ Rice	41–43	+9.6	+7.0	-2.0	11.6
2023	2	FCS @ TCU	6–41	-31.9	-41.5	-35.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	2	FCS @ West Virginia	17–56	-30.4	-38.5	-39.0	8.6

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.