Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | South Carolina @ Kentucky | 31–6 | -7.4 | -9.5 | +25.0 | 32.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ LSU | 21–44 | -38.8 | -48.5 | -23.0 | 15.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Middle Tennessee @ Ole Miss | 3–52 | -25.6 | -42.5 | -49.0 | 23.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | Mississippi State @ Arizona State | 23–30 | -4.4 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | Buffalo @ Missouri | 0–38 | -34.9 | -34.5 | -38.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Houston @ Oklahoma | 12–16 | -22.6 | -27.5 | -4.0 | 18.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Tennessee vs NC State | 51–10 | +9.6 | +10.0 | +41.0 | 31.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | Texas @ Michigan | 31–12 | -1.7 | +6.5 | +19.0 | 20.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Texas A&M | 10–52 | -36.8 | -48.5 | -42.0 | 5.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Vanderbilt | 0–55 | -24.9 | -32.5 | -55.0 | 30.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | Kansas @ Illinois | 17–23 | +4.6 | +4.5 | -6.0 | 10.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Indiana | 3–77 | -29.9 | -44.5 | -74.0 | 44.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | Iowa State @ Iowa | 20–19 | -1.1 | -3.0 | +1.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Michigan State @ Maryland | 27–24 | -16.4 | -8.0 | +3.0 | 19.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Minnesota | 0–48 | -30.1 | -27.5 | -48.0 | 17.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Colorado @ Nebraska | 10–28 | -10.2 | -6.5 | -18.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Western Michigan @ Ohio State | 0–56 | -27.3 | -37.5 | -56.0 | 28.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | Boise State @ Oregon | 34–37 | -16.4 | -18.0 | -3.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Bowling Green @ Penn State | 27–34 | -23.6 | -35.0 | -7.0 | 16.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Akron @ Rutgers | 17–49 | -16.8 | -24.5 | -32.0 | 15.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | Utah State @ USC | 0–48 | -21.8 | -29.5 | -48.0 | 26.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | Eastern Michigan @ Washington | 9–30 | -24.4 | -25.0 | -21.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Wisconsin | 13–27 | -35.7 | -17.5 | -14.0 | 21.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ West Virginia | 14–49 | -35.6 | -38.5 | -35.0 | 0.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Coastal Carolina | 21–40 | -28.9 | -17.5 | -19.0 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 2 | Northern Illinois @ Notre Dame | 16–14 | -25.1 | -28.0 | +2.0 | 27.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Massachusetts @ Toledo | 23–38 | -11.8 | -17.5 | -15.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Western Kentucky | 0–31 | -19.8 | -18.5 | -31.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ UNLV | 14–72 | -27.9 | -41.5 | -58.0 | 30.1 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ UTEP | 27–24 | -17.6 | -6.5 | +3.0 | 20.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Georgia State | 21–24 | -24.4 | -9.5 | -3.0 | 21.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Ball State | 34–42 | -24.3 | -2.5 | -8.0 | 16.3 |
| 2024 | 2 | BYU @ SMU | 18–15 | -14.9 | -12.5 | +3.0 | 17.9 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Boston College | 0–56 | -34.9 | -33.5 | -56.0 | 21.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | App State @ Clemson | 20–66 | -12.8 | -16.5 | -46.0 | 33.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | Duke vs Northwestern | 26–20 | -2.4 | -2.5 | +6.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Georgia Tech @ Syracuse | 28–31 | +12.2 | +3.0 | -3.0 | 15.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | Jacksonville State @ Louisville | 14–49 | -14.6 | -29.0 | -35.0 | 20.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Miami | 9–56 | -41.3 | -46.5 | -47.0 | 5.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | Charlotte @ North Carolina | 20–38 | -14.7 | -21.5 | -18.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati | 28–27 | +3.1 | -2.0 | +1.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Stanford | 7–41 | -28.3 | -33.5 | -34.0 | 5.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | Marshall @ Virginia Tech | 14–31 | -15.3 | -20.5 | -17.0 | 1.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Virginia @ Wake Forest | 31–30 | +0.4 | +1.0 | +1.0 | 0.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Arizona | 10–22 | -40.6 | -39.8 | -12.0 | 28.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ TCU | 0–45 | -36.1 | -45.5 | -45.0 | 8.9 |
| 2024 | 2 | Kansas State @ Tulane | 34–27 | +2.2 | +9.0 | +7.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 2 | Sam Houston @ UCF | 14–45 | -16.3 | -21.5 | -31.0 | 14.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | Baylor @ Utah | 12–23 | -6.3 | -14.5 | -11.0 | 4.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | Texas Tech @ Washington State | 16–37 | -4.2 | +2.5 | -21.0 | 16.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.