Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3 | Memphis @ Troy | 28–7 | +2.3 | +4.5 | +21.0 | 18.7 |
| 2025 | 3 | Akron @ UAB | 28–31 | -10.7 | -12.5 | -3.0 | 7.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Charlotte | 35–42 | -15.7 | -2.5 | -7.0 | 8.7 |
| 2025 | 3 | Navy @ Tulsa | 42–23 | +14.4 | +13.5 | +19.0 | 4.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Rice | 17–38 | -22.1 | -29.5 | -21.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ UTSA | 20–48 | -35.0 | -21.0 | -28.0 | 7.0 |
| 2025 | 3 | Buffalo @ Kent State | 31–28 | +17.2 | +24.0 | +3.0 | 14.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Ball State | 29–34 | -15.3 | -3.0 | -5.0 | 10.3 |
| 2025 | 3 | FCS @ Toledo | 0–60 | -33.2 | -33.5 | -60.0 | 26.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | UL Monroe @ Alabama | 0–73 | -25.0 | -34.3 | -73.0 | 48.0 |
| 2025 | 2 | Arkansas State vs Arkansas | 14–56 | -14.9 | -24.0 | -42.0 | 27.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | Ball State @ Auburn | 3–42 | -27.7 | -42.8 | -39.0 | 11.3 |
| 2025 | 2 | South Florida @ Florida | 18–16 | -16.7 | -18.5 | +2.0 | 18.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Georgia | 6–28 | -47.3 | -46.8 | -22.0 | 25.3 |
| 2025 | 2 | Ole Miss @ Kentucky | 30–23 | +11.2 | +7.8 | +7.0 | 4.2 |
| 2025 | 2 | Louisiana Tech @ LSU | 7–23 | -30.8 | -36.5 | -16.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Arizona State @ Mississippi State | 20–24 | +4.0 | +5.8 | -4.0 | 8.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Kansas @ Missouri | 31–42 | -6.0 | -6.5 | -11.0 | 5.0 |
| 2025 | 2 | Michigan @ Oklahoma | 13–24 | -1.2 | -3.5 | -11.0 | 9.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ South Carolina | 10–38 | -41.4 | -42.8 | -28.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Tennessee | 17–72 | -41.8 | -40.0 | -55.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | San José State @ Texas | 7–38 | -28.2 | -36.8 | -31.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Utah State @ Texas A&M | 22–44 | -18.8 | -34.5 | -22.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Vanderbilt @ Virginia Tech | 44–20 | +0.3 | -2.0 | +24.0 | 23.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Akron @ Nebraska | 0–68 | -23.6 | -33.8 | -68.0 | 44.4 |
| 2025 | 2 | Florida International @ Penn State | 0–34 | -29.8 | -41.8 | -34.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Kennesaw State @ Indiana | 9–56 | -28.6 | -35.5 | -47.0 | 18.4 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Minnesota | 0–66 | -39.1 | -43.0 | -66.0 | 26.9 |
| 2025 | 2 | Georgia Southern @ USC | 20–59 | -20.7 | -28.8 | -39.0 | 18.3 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Ohio State | 0–70 | -52.9 | -53.5 | -70.0 | 17.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | Boston College @ Michigan State | 40–42 | +1.8 | -3.5 | -2.0 | 3.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Northwestern | 7–42 | -26.5 | -31.0 | -35.0 | 8.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | Miami (OH) @ Rutgers | 17–45 | -10.3 | -15.5 | -28.0 | 17.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Purdue | 17–34 | -26.3 | -21.0 | -17.0 | 9.3 |
| 2025 | 2 | Middle Tennessee @ Wisconsin | 10–42 | -25.1 | -28.5 | -32.0 | 6.9 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Washington | 10–70 | -34.2 | -28.8 | -60.0 | 25.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Iowa @ Iowa State | 13–16 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 0.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | UCLA @ UNLV | 23–30 | -2.7 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Oklahoma State @ Oregon | 3–69 | -24.1 | -28.5 | -66.0 | 41.9 |
| 2025 | 2 | Illinois @ Duke | 45–19 | +5.4 | +2.5 | +26.0 | 20.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Northern Illinois @ Maryland | 9–20 | -11.4 | -16.8 | -11.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Fresno State @ Oregon State | 36–27 | -1.2 | -1.3 | +9.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | San Diego State @ Washington State | 13–36 | +0.6 | -2.3 | -23.0 | 23.6 |
| 2025 | 2 | Virginia @ NC State | 31–35 | -6.1 | -2.8 | -4.0 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | Baylor @ SMU | 48–45 | -2.5 | -2.8 | +3.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Stanford @ BYU | 3–27 | -16.5 | -20.5 | -24.0 | 7.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | North Carolina @ Charlotte | 20–3 | +4.6 | +15.8 | +17.0 | 12.4 |
| 2025 | 2 | James Madison @ Louisville | 14–28 | -12.6 | -15.3 | -14.0 | 1.4 |
| 2025 | 2 | Central Michigan @ Pittsburgh | 17–45 | -16.2 | -21.5 | -28.0 | 11.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ California | 3–35 | -29.6 | -44.5 | -32.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.