Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2 | Stanford @ USC | 42–28 | -12.3 | -17.5 | +14.0 | 26.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | Hawai'i @ Oregon State | 27–45 | -9.5 | -11.0 | -18.0 | 8.5 |
| 2021 | 2 | FCS @ Washington State | 24–44 | -22.1 | -31.0 | -20.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | San Diego State @ Arizona | 38–14 | +8.1 | -1.5 | +24.0 | 15.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | UNLV @ Arizona State | 10–37 | -30.1 | -34.5 | -27.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | Utah @ BYU | 17–26 | -6.4 | +7.0 | -9.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | New Mexico State @ New Mexico | 25–34 | -5.5 | -19.5 | -9.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | FCS @ Utah State | 24–48 | -21.4 | -6.5 | -24.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2021 | 2 | FCS @ Fresno State | 10–63 | -27.4 | -32.5 | -53.0 | 25.6 |
| 2021 | 2 | FCS @ Nevada | 10–49 | -29.3 | -35.0 | -39.0 | 9.7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.