Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | Florida International @ Texas State | 12–41 | -8.9 | -13.5 | -29.0 | 20.1 |
| 2022 | 2 | Maryland @ Charlotte | 56–21 | +22.8 | +28.0 | +35.0 | 12.2 |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Florida Atlantic | 9–42 | -23.9 | -11.5 | -33.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Louisiana Tech | 17–52 | -14.6 | -6.5 | -35.0 | 20.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | Middle Tennessee @ Colorado State | 34–19 | -0.5 | -13.5 | +15.0 | 15.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ North Texas | 27–59 | -24.3 | -38.5 | -32.0 | 7.7 |
| 2022 | 2 | FCS @ Rice | 10–52 | -13.6 | -7.3 | -42.0 | 28.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | UAB @ Liberty | 14–21 | +7.6 | +6.0 | -7.0 | 14.6 |
| 2022 | 2 | New Mexico State @ UTEP | 13–20 | -10.7 | -17.0 | -7.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 2 | UTSA @ Army | 41–38 | +5.5 | +2.0 | +3.0 | 2.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.