Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ UConn | 17–63 | -21.0 | -14.5 | -46.0 | 25.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Central Michigan vs Florida International | 16–52 | +7.0 | +3.5 | -36.0 | 43.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | Liberty @ New Mexico State | 30–24 | +12.5 | +22.0 | +6.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Louisiana @ Kennesaw State | 34–10 | +8.0 | +14.5 | +24.0 | 16.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | San José State @ Air Force | 17–7 | +6.0 | -3.0 | +10.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Colorado State | 17–38 | -20.1 | -31.0 | -21.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Fresno State | 30–46 | -29.0 | -18.5 | -16.0 | 13.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | Georgia Southern @ Nevada | 20–17 | -2.0 | -1.0 | +3.0 | 5.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | Oregon State @ San Diego State | 21–0 | +0.3 | +5.5 | +21.0 | 20.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Wyoming | 17–13 | -21.6 | -6.5 | +4.0 | 25.6 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ James Madison | 6–13 | -26.5 | -35.5 | -7.0 | 19.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | East Carolina @ Old Dominion | 20–14 | -1.1 | -1.5 | +6.0 | 7.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Tulsa @ Arkansas State | 24–28 | -1.1 | -9.0 | -4.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | UAB @ UL Monroe | 6–32 | +13.7 | +11.0 | -26.0 | 39.7 |
| 2024 | 2 | South Alabama @ Ohio | 20–27 | +7.5 | +1.5 | -7.0 | 14.5 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Southern Miss | 10–35 | -20.0 | -17.5 | -25.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | UTSA @ Texas State | 10–49 | +3.3 | -2.5 | -39.0 | 42.3 |
| 2024 | 2 | Troy @ Memphis | 17–38 | -12.6 | -18.5 | -21.0 | 8.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Kent State | 23–17 | -14.6 | -17.5 | +6.0 | 20.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 2 | Army @ Florida Atlantic | 24–7 | -11.0 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 28.0 |
| 2024 | 2 | Temple @ Navy | 11–38 | +3.4 | -11.5 | -27.0 | 30.4 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ North Texas | 20–35 | -26.2 | -21.5 | -15.0 | 11.2 |
| 2024 | 2 | FCS @ Rice | 7–69 | -19.8 | -30.0 | -62.0 | 42.2 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.