Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | UConn @ Syracuse | 20–27 | -4.9 | -7.3 | -7.0 | 2.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Wake Forest | 10–42 | -20.9 | -17.5 | -32.0 | 11.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Florida State | 3–77 | -32.3 | -44.5 | -74.0 | 41.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Georgia Tech | 12–59 | -37.7 | -37.5 | -47.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Troy @ Clemson | 16–27 | -21.5 | -30.3 | -11.0 | 10.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Miami | 3–45 | -39.3 | -54.5 | -42.0 | 2.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Arizona | 3–48 | -26.2 | -31.5 | -45.0 | 18.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | Bowling Green @ Cincinnati | 20–34 | -14.3 | -22.0 | -14.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Delaware @ Colorado | 7–31 | -24.5 | -23.5 | -24.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Army @ Kansas State | 24–21 | -25.2 | -16.8 | +3.0 | 28.2 |
| 2025 | 2 | West Virginia @ Ohio | 10–17 | -4.1 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Houston @ Rice | 35–9 | +4.3 | +13.5 | +26.0 | 21.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | Kent State @ Texas Tech | 14–62 | -34.0 | -48.0 | -48.0 | 14.0 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ UCF | 7–68 | -30.7 | -37.5 | -61.0 | 30.3 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Utah | 9–63 | -35.5 | -42.5 | -54.0 | 18.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | Liberty @ Jacksonville State | 24–34 | -7.7 | +6.3 | -10.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Missouri State @ Marshall | 21–20 | -18.7 | -7.3 | +1.0 | 19.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | Tulsa @ New Mexico State | 14–21 | +0.5 | +3.3 | -7.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Sam Houston @ Hawai'i | 20–37 | -0.9 | -7.3 | -17.0 | 16.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ UTEP | 17–42 | -21.4 | -7.5 | -25.0 | 3.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Western Kentucky @ Toledo | 21–45 | -7.2 | -8.0 | -24.0 | 16.8 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Boise State | 14–51 | -29.5 | -33.3 | -37.0 | 7.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Colorado State | 17–21 | -23.1 | -34.8 | -4.0 | 19.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Nevada | 17–20 | -19.2 | -8.8 | -3.0 | 16.2 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ New Mexico | 22–32 | -14.3 | -17.5 | -10.0 | 4.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Wyoming | 7–31 | -24.5 | -13.8 | -24.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ App State | 13–20 | -26.0 | -30.5 | -7.0 | 19.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Coastal Carolina | 0–13 | -19.6 | -28.0 | -13.0 | 6.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Memphis @ Georgia State | 38–16 | +7.1 | +15.0 | +22.0 | 14.9 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Old Dominion | 6–54 | -27.2 | -21.8 | -48.0 | 20.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Louisiana | 10–34 | -22.9 | -19.3 | -24.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | Tulane @ South Alabama | 33–31 | +3.5 | +13.5 | +2.0 | 1.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Southern Miss | 20–38 | -12.5 | -13.5 | -18.0 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | Texas State @ UTSA | 43–36 | -6.9 | -4.5 | +7.0 | 13.9 |
| 2025 | 2 | UAB @ Navy | 24–38 | -14.7 | -21.5 | -14.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ East Carolina | 3–56 | -28.3 | -30.3 | -53.0 | 24.7 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Florida Atlantic | 14–56 | -16.5 | -21.3 | -42.0 | 25.5 |
| 2025 | 2 | North Texas @ Western Michigan | 33–30 | +1.2 | +12.3 | +3.0 | 1.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Temple | 7–55 | -22.9 | -27.8 | -48.0 | 25.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Buffalo | 6–45 | -25.9 | -37.3 | -39.0 | 13.1 |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Eastern Michigan | 28–23 | -17.2 | -22.0 | +5.0 | 22.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 2 | FCS @ Massachusetts | 27–26 | -16.8 | -15.5 | +1.0 | 17.8 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.