Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 15 | Georgia vs Texas | 22–19 | -9.1 | -3.0 | +3.0 | 12.1 |
| 2024 | 15 | Marshall @ Louisiana | 31–3 | -9.3 | -5.0 | +28.0 | 37.3 |
| 2024 | 14 | Auburn @ Alabama | 14–28 | -5.1 | -11.0 | -14.0 | 8.9 |
| 2024 | 14 | Florida @ Florida State | 31–11 | +15.8 | +17.0 | +20.0 | 4.2 |
| 2024 | 14 | Georgia Tech @ Georgia | 42–44 | -11.0 | -17.5 | -2.0 | 9.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Louisville @ Kentucky | 41–14 | +7.3 | +4.0 | +27.0 | 19.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Oklahoma @ LSU | 17–37 | +7.3 | -6.0 | -20.0 | 27.3 |
| 2024 | 14 | Mississippi State @ Ole Miss | 14–26 | -34.7 | -26.0 | -12.0 | 22.7 |
| 2024 | 14 | Arkansas @ Missouri | 21–28 | -9.8 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | South Carolina @ Clemson | 17–14 | +3.8 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Texas @ Texas A&M | 17–7 | +8.9 | +4.5 | +10.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Tennessee @ Vanderbilt | 36–23 | +7.5 | +9.5 | +13.0 | 5.5 |
| 2024 | 14 | Nebraska @ Iowa | 10–13 | -7.8 | -3.0 | -3.0 | 4.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | Illinois vs Northwestern | 38–28 | +13.7 | +9.0 | +10.0 | 3.7 |
| 2024 | 14 | Purdue @ Indiana | 0–66 | -29.5 | -28.5 | -66.0 | 36.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Maryland @ Penn State | 7–44 | -31.5 | -26.0 | -37.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Michigan @ Ohio State | 13–10 | -20.4 | -20.0 | +3.0 | 23.4 |
| 2024 | 14 | Rutgers @ Michigan State | 41–14 | +2.3 | -1.5 | +27.0 | 24.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Minnesota @ Wisconsin | 24–7 | +5.8 | +1.5 | +17.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Washington @ Oregon | 21–49 | -15.0 | -17.5 | -28.0 | 13.0 |
| 2024 | 14 | Fresno State @ UCLA | 13–20 | -18.6 | -7.5 | -7.0 | 11.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | Notre Dame @ USC | 49–35 | +13.9 | +7.0 | +14.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | UConn @ Massachusetts | 47–42 | +7.4 | +9.5 | +5.0 | 2.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Pittsburgh @ Boston College | 23–34 | -13.1 | -3.5 | -11.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | California @ SMU | 6–38 | -22.9 | -12.5 | -32.0 | 9.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Duke @ Wake Forest | 23–17 | +17.0 | +3.5 | +6.0 | 11.0 |
| 2024 | 14 | Miami @ Syracuse | 38–42 | +10.7 | +12.0 | -4.0 | 14.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | NC State @ North Carolina | 35–30 | +3.0 | -2.0 | +5.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Stanford @ San José State | 31–34 | +5.6 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 8.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | Virginia @ Virginia Tech | 17–37 | -13.1 | -4.5 | -20.0 | 6.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Oklahoma State @ Colorado | 0–52 | -25.0 | -15.0 | -52.0 | 27.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Utah @ UCF | 28–14 | -11.1 | -10.0 | +14.0 | 25.1 |
| 2024 | 14 | Arizona State @ Arizona | 49–7 | +12.9 | +7.5 | +42.0 | 29.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Kansas @ Baylor | 17–45 | +8.8 | +1.5 | -28.0 | 36.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | Houston @ BYU | 18–30 | -20.0 | -12.0 | -12.0 | 8.0 |
| 2024 | 14 | TCU @ Cincinnati | 20–13 | +7.1 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Kansas State @ Iowa State | 21–29 | +4.1 | -2.0 | -8.0 | 12.1 |
| 2024 | 14 | West Virginia @ Texas Tech | 15–52 | -4.3 | -2.5 | -37.0 | 32.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Middle Tennessee vs Florida International | 24–35 | -19.0 | -9.5 | -11.0 | 8.0 |
| 2024 | 14 | Liberty @ Sam Houston | 18–20 | +3.6 | +2.5 | -2.0 | 5.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | Jacksonville State @ Western Kentucky | 17–19 | +9.5 | +0.5 | -2.0 | 11.5 |
| 2024 | 14 | Kennesaw State @ Louisiana Tech | 0–33 | -11.8 | -10.5 | -33.0 | 21.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | UTEP @ New Mexico State | 42–35 | -3.6 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 10.6 |
| 2024 | 14 | Air Force @ San Diego State | 31–20 | +10.9 | +6.0 | +11.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Oregon State @ Boise State | 18–34 | -26.7 | -17.5 | -16.0 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 14 | Utah State @ Colorado State | 37–42 | -0.8 | -5.5 | -5.0 | 4.2 |
| 2024 | 14 | New Mexico @ Hawai'i | 30–38 | +3.0 | +6.5 | -8.0 | 11.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Nevada @ UNLV | 14–38 | -10.7 | -17.5 | -24.0 | 13.3 |
| 2024 | 14 | Wyoming @ Washington State | 15–14 | -7.2 | -18.5 | +1.0 | 8.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Texas State @ South Alabama | 45–38 | -8.7 | +2.5 | +7.0 | 15.7 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.