Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 14 | App State @ Georgia Southern | 20–29 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -9.0 | 7.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State | 48–27 | -9.7 | -0.5 | +21.0 | 30.7 |
| 2024 | 14 | Marshall @ James Madison | 35–33 | -2.2 | -3.5 | +2.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Old Dominion @ Arkansas State | 40–32 | +2.6 | +5.5 | +8.0 | 5.4 |
| 2024 | 14 | Louisiana @ UL Monroe | 37–23 | +18.1 | +8.5 | +14.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Southern Miss @ Troy | 20–52 | -35.9 | -17.5 | -32.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green | 28–12 | -6.2 | -3.0 | +16.0 | 22.2 |
| 2024 | 14 | Toledo @ Akron | 14–21 | +4.2 | +9.5 | -7.0 | 11.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Kent State @ Buffalo | 7–43 | -26.3 | -23.5 | -36.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Ball State @ Ohio | 21–42 | -21.4 | -17.5 | -21.0 | 0.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Central Michigan @ Northern Illinois | 16–24 | -18.8 | -13.5 | -8.0 | 10.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan | 18–26 | -8.1 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Memphis @ Tulane | 34–24 | -20.5 | -12.5 | +10.0 | 30.5 |
| 2024 | 14 | UAB @ Charlotte | 27–29 | +8.2 | -1.0 | -2.0 | 10.2 |
| 2024 | 14 | UTSA @ Army | 24–29 | -6.8 | -6.5 | -5.0 | 1.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | Navy @ East Carolina | 34–20 | -2.4 | -2.8 | +14.0 | 16.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | Florida Atlantic @ Tulsa | 63–16 | -1.8 | -1.0 | +47.0 | 48.8 |
| 2024 | 14 | North Texas @ Temple | 24–17 | +5.6 | +11.0 | +7.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 14 | South Florida @ Rice | 28–35 | +12.9 | +5.5 | -7.0 | 19.9 |
| 2024 | 13 | Louisiana Tech @ Arkansas | 14–35 | -26.5 | -23.5 | -21.0 | 5.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | Texas A&M @ Auburn | 41–43 | -6.1 | +2.5 | -2.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Ole Miss @ Florida | 17–24 | +22.5 | +13.0 | -7.0 | 29.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | Massachusetts @ Georgia | 21–59 | -41.4 | -42.5 | -38.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Vanderbilt @ LSU | 17–24 | -6.3 | -9.5 | -7.0 | 0.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Missouri @ Mississippi State | 39–20 | +12.9 | +9.5 | +19.0 | 6.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Alabama @ Oklahoma | 3–24 | +11.7 | +14.0 | -21.0 | 32.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | FCS @ South Carolina | 12–56 | -53.2 | -42.5 | -44.0 | 9.2 |
| 2024 | 13 | UTEP @ Tennessee | 0–56 | -30.5 | -41.5 | -56.0 | 25.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | Kentucky @ Texas | 14–31 | -24.2 | -18.5 | -17.0 | 7.2 |
| 2024 | 13 | Illinois @ Rutgers | 38–31 | +0.5 | -2.3 | +7.0 | 6.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Indiana @ Ohio State | 15–38 | -10.2 | -10.5 | -23.0 | 12.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | Iowa @ Maryland | 29–13 | +20.5 | +4.0 | +16.0 | 4.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Northwestern @ Michigan | 6–50 | -8.2 | -10.5 | -44.0 | 35.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | Purdue @ Michigan State | 17–24 | -11.0 | -14.0 | -7.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Penn State @ Minnesota | 26–25 | +14.9 | +11.0 | +1.0 | 13.9 |
| 2024 | 13 | Wisconsin @ Nebraska | 25–44 | +5.7 | -1.5 | -19.0 | 24.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | USC @ UCLA | 19–13 | -1.2 | +4.5 | +6.0 | 7.2 |
| 2024 | 13 | Washington State @ Oregon State | 38–41 | +21.9 | +11.0 | -3.0 | 24.9 |
| 2024 | 13 | NC State @ Georgia Tech | 29–30 | -13.7 | -7.5 | -1.0 | 12.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | UConn @ Syracuse | 24–31 | -11.1 | -10.0 | -7.0 | 4.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | North Carolina @ Boston College | 21–41 | +1.1 | +2.0 | -20.0 | 21.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Stanford @ California | 21–24 | -11.4 | -15.0 | -3.0 | 8.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | FCS @ Clemson | 14–51 | -47.2 | -49.0 | -37.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Virginia Tech @ Duke | 28–31 | -0.4 | +2.5 | -3.0 | 2.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | FCS @ Florida State | 7–41 | -22.5 | -33.3 | -34.0 | 11.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | Pittsburgh @ Louisville | 9–37 | -3.8 | -7.5 | -28.0 | 24.2 |
| 2024 | 13 | Wake Forest @ Miami | 14–42 | -22.2 | -23.5 | -28.0 | 5.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | SMU @ Virginia | 33–7 | +11.9 | +10.5 | +26.0 | 14.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | BYU @ Arizona State | 23–28 | -8.1 | -3.5 | -5.0 | 3.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | Baylor @ Houston | 20–10 | +22.0 | +7.0 | +10.0 | 12.0 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.