Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 13 | Colorado vs Kansas | 21–37 | +4.3 | +1.5 | -16.0 | 20.3 |
| 2024 | 13 | Cincinnati @ Kansas State | 15–41 | -7.9 | -7.5 | -26.0 | 18.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State | 56–48 | +10.2 | +5.0 | +8.0 | 2.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Arizona @ TCU | 28–49 | -14.3 | -10.5 | -21.0 | 6.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Iowa State @ Utah | 31–28 | +6.3 | +6.5 | +3.0 | 3.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | UCF @ West Virginia | 21–31 | +12.1 | +3.0 | -10.0 | 22.1 |
| 2024 | 13 | Army vs Notre Dame | 14–49 | -16.6 | -14.5 | -35.0 | 18.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Florida International @ Kennesaw State | 26–27 | +14.8 | +9.0 | -1.0 | 15.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | Western Kentucky @ Liberty | 21–38 | -3.8 | -1.0 | -17.0 | 13.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Sam Houston @ Jacksonville State | 11–21 | -12.3 | -5.5 | -10.0 | 2.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee | 36–21 | -3.9 | -3.5 | +15.0 | 18.9 |
| 2024 | 13 | Air Force @ Nevada | 22–19 | -0.8 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 3.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Boise State @ Wyoming | 17–13 | +22.6 | +22.0 | +4.0 | 18.6 |
| 2024 | 13 | Colorado State @ Fresno State | 22–28 | +3.4 | -3.5 | -6.0 | 9.4 |
| 2024 | 13 | San Diego State @ Utah State | 20–41 | -17.5 | -5.0 | -21.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | UNLV @ San José State | 27–16 | +2.2 | +7.5 | +11.0 | 8.8 |
| 2024 | 13 | James Madison @ App State | 20–34 | +8.7 | +7.0 | -14.0 | 22.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina | 26–6 | -1.6 | -2.0 | +20.0 | 21.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Marshall @ Old Dominion | 42–35 | -4.5 | -3.0 | +7.0 | 11.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | UL Monroe @ Arkansas State | 21–28 | -3.9 | -3.0 | -7.0 | 3.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Troy @ Louisiana | 30–51 | -9.4 | -7.5 | -21.0 | 11.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | South Alabama @ Southern Miss | 35–14 | +33.5 | +24.0 | +21.0 | 12.5 |
| 2024 | 13 | Georgia State @ Texas State | 52–44 | -28.3 | -23.0 | +8.0 | 36.3 |
| 2024 | 13 | Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) | 9–20 | -3.6 | -1.5 | -11.0 | 7.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Akron @ Kent State | 38–17 | +9.0 | +10.5 | +21.0 | 12.0 |
| 2024 | 13 | Western Michigan @ Central Michigan | 14–16 | +6.7 | +6.0 | -2.0 | 8.7 |
| 2024 | 13 | Buffalo @ Eastern Michigan | 37–20 | +3.6 | -1.0 | +17.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Ohio @ Toledo | 24–7 | +8.7 | -1.5 | +17.0 | 8.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Bowling Green @ Ball State | 38–13 | +6.6 | +12.5 | +25.0 | 18.4 |
| 2024 | 13 | Charlotte @ Florida Atlantic | 39–27 | -1.0 | +3.0 | +12.0 | 13.0 |
| 2024 | 13 | East Carolina @ North Texas | 40–28 | +5.7 | -2.5 | +12.0 | 6.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Rice @ UAB | 14–40 | +11.3 | +7.0 | -26.0 | 37.3 |
| 2024 | 13 | Temple @ UTSA | 27–51 | -22.6 | -16.5 | -24.0 | 1.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 13 | Tulsa @ South Florida | 30–63 | -22.9 | -17.0 | -33.0 | 10.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Texas @ Arkansas | 20–10 | +11.1 | +13.0 | +10.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | LSU @ Florida | 16–27 | +4.5 | +3.0 | -11.0 | 15.5 |
| 2024 | 12 | Tennessee @ Georgia | 17–31 | -10.6 | -8.5 | -14.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | FCS @ Kentucky | 6–48 | -33.9 | -41.5 | -42.0 | 8.1 |
| 2024 | 12 | Missouri @ South Carolina | 30–34 | -24.9 | -10.5 | -4.0 | 20.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | New Mexico State @ Texas A&M | 3–38 | -41.9 | -38.5 | -35.0 | 6.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | FCS @ Alabama | 7–52 | -65.9 | -42.3 | -45.0 | 20.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | UL Monroe @ Auburn | 14–48 | -20.8 | -24.5 | -34.0 | 13.2 |
| 2024 | 12 | Michigan State @ Illinois | 16–38 | -2.7 | -2.0 | -22.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Rutgers @ Maryland | 31–17 | +0.2 | -4.5 | +14.0 | 13.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Nebraska @ USC | 20–28 | -9.1 | -6.5 | -8.0 | 1.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Ohio State vs Northwestern | 31–7 | +30.1 | +28.5 | +24.0 | 6.1 |
| 2024 | 12 | Oregon @ Wisconsin | 16–13 | +20.7 | +13.5 | +3.0 | 17.7 |
| 2024 | 12 | Penn State @ Purdue | 49–10 | +34.8 | +30.0 | +39.0 | 4.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | UCLA @ Washington | 19–31 | +4.2 | -5.0 | -12.0 | 16.2 |
| 2024 | 12 | Virginia @ Notre Dame | 14–35 | -32.3 | -21.5 | -21.0 | 11.3 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.