Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	13	Houston @ UConn	45–17	+36.4	+32.0	+28.0	8.4
2021	13	Tulane @ Memphis	28–33	+0.9	-5.5	-5.0	5.9
2021	13	Navy @ Temple	38–14	+19.5	+13.5	+24.0	4.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Tulsa @ SMU	34–31	-1.8	-6.5	+3.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Miami (OH) @ Kent State	47–48	+0.4	+0.5	-1.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Buffalo @ Ball State	3–20	-9.8	-6.0	-17.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois	42–21	-3.8	+7.0	+21.0	24.8
2021	13	Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan	10–31	-22.7	-8.5	-21.0	1.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Ohio @ Bowling Green	10–21	+14.3	+6.3	-11.0	25.3
2021	13	Akron @ Toledo	14–49	-35.0	-28.5	-35.0	0.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Georgia Southern @ App State	3–27	-32.9	-24.5	-24.0	8.9
2021	13	Texas State @ Arkansas State	24–22	-3.8	-2.0	+2.0	5.8
2021	13	Coastal Carolina @ South Alabama	27–21	+13.4	+15.0	+6.0	7.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Troy @ Georgia State	10–37	-15.3	-6.5	-27.0	11.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	UL Monroe @ Louisiana	16–21	-26.1	-21.5	-5.0	21.1
2021	13	Washington State @ Washington	40–13	+7.5	+1.0	+27.0	19.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Colorado @ Utah	13–28	-34.4	-24.0	-15.0	19.4
2021	13	California @ UCLA	14–42	-7.4	-6.5	-28.0	20.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Oregon State @ Oregon	29–38	-2.3	-7.5	-9.0	6.7
2021	13	Arizona @ Arizona State	15–38	-10.6	-20.0	-23.0	12.4
2021	13	BYU @ USC	35–31	+20.6	+8.5	+4.0	16.6
2021	13	UNLV @ Air Force	14–48	-16.6	-18.5	-34.0	17.4
2021	13	Boise State @ San Diego State	16–27	+13.8	+3.0	-11.0	24.8
2021	13	Nevada @ Colorado State	52–10	+8.9	+3.0	+42.0	33.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	13	Utah State @ New Mexico	35–10	+14.0	+17.0	+25.0	11.0
2021	13	Hawai'i @ Wyoming	38–14	-20.0	-13.0	+24.0	44.0
2021	13	Fresno State @ San José State	40–9	+9.9	+7.0	+31.0	21.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Arkansas @ Alabama	35–42	-13.0	-20.5	-7.0	6.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	FCS @ Georgia	7–56	-59.3	-52.5	-49.0	10.3
2021	12	New Mexico State @ Kentucky	16–56	-25.5	-35.5	-40.0	14.5
2021	12	UL Monroe @ LSU	14–27	-32.8	-29.0	-13.0	19.8
2021	12	Vanderbilt @ Ole Miss	17–31	-38.0	-35.8	-14.0	24.0
2021	12	FCS @ Mississippi State	10–55	-46.8	-44.0	-45.0	1.8
2021	12	Florida @ Missouri	23–24	-2.6	+9.0	-1.0	1.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Auburn @ South Carolina	17–21	+10.5	+7.0	-4.0	14.5
2021	12	South Alabama @ Tennessee	14–60	-15.1	-28.3	-46.0	30.9
2021	12	FCS @ Texas A&M	3–52	-46.7	-41.5	-49.0	2.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Marshall @ Charlotte	49–28	+12.6	+14.5	+21.0	8.4
2021	12	North Texas @ Florida International	49–7	+20.5	+10.0	+42.0	21.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky	17–52	-22.0	-11.3	-35.0	13.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Southern Miss @ Louisiana Tech	35–19	-11.1	-15.5	+16.0	27.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Old Dominion @ Middle Tennessee	24–17	-3.1	-3.0	+7.0	10.1
2021	12	Rice @ UTEP	28–38	-11.3	-9.0	-10.0	1.3
2021	12	UAB @ UTSA	31–34	+3.9	-3.8	-3.0	6.9
2021	12	Louisville @ Duke	62–22	+39.2	+20.0	+40.0	0.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Florida State @ Boston College	26–23	-3.2	-3.0	+3.0	6.2
2021	12	Wake Forest @ Clemson	27–48	+0.8	-3.5	-21.0	21.8
2021	12	Virginia Tech @ Miami	26–38	-8.4	-7.0	-12.0	3.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Syracuse @ NC State	17–41	-18.9	-11.5	-24.0	5.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	FCS @ North Carolina	14–34	-38.4	-37.0	-20.0	18.4

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.