Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	13	Tulsa @ East Carolina	29–27	-5.2	-3.0	+2.0	7.2
2023	13	UTSA @ Tulane	16–29	+9.8	-3.5	-13.0	22.8
2023	13	UAB @ North Texas	42–45	-9.4	-2.5	-3.0	6.4
2023	13	Memphis @ Temple	45–21	+16.1	+13.5	+24.0	7.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Charlotte @ South Florida	14–48	-7.0	-7.0	-34.0	27.0
2023	13	Florida Atlantic @ Rice	21–24	-23.6	-3.5	-3.0	20.6
2023	13	Navy @ SMU	14–59	-24.1	-20.3	-45.0	20.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Georgia Southern @ App State	27–55	-24.6	-10.5	-28.0	3.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	James Madison @ Coastal Carolina	56–14	+8.5	+4.0	+42.0	33.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Arkansas State @ Marshall	21–35	+15.9	-1.5	-14.0	29.9
2023	13	Georgia State @ Old Dominion	24–25	-13.8	-2.0	-1.0	12.8
2023	13	UL Monroe @ Louisiana	21–52	-15.1	-12.5	-31.0	15.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Troy @ Southern Miss	35–17	+18.0	+17.0	+18.0	0.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	South Alabama @ Texas State	44–52	+12.9	+5.5	-8.0	20.9
2023	13	Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo	24–11	-10.7	-6.5	+13.0	23.7
2023	13	Bowling Green @ Western Michigan	34–10	+9.3	+2.5	+24.0	14.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Toledo @ Central Michigan	32–17	+19.8	+10.0	+15.0	4.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Ohio @ Akron	25–14	+14.5	+14.5	+11.0	3.5
2023	13	Northern Illinois @ Kent State	37–27	+22.3	+20.5	+10.0	12.3
2023	13	Miami (OH) @ Ball State	17–15	+3.0	+4.0	+2.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Air Force @ Boise State	19–27	-24.6	-6.5	-8.0	16.6
2023	13	Colorado State @ Hawai'i	24–27	+1.6	+5.5	-3.0	4.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Fresno State @ San Diego State	18–33	-2.2	+5.5	-15.0	12.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	San José State @ UNLV	37–31	+0.6	-1.5	+6.0	5.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	13	Utah State @ New Mexico	44–41	-2.7	+4.5	+3.0	5.7
2023	13	Wyoming @ Nevada	42–6	+17.2	+11.0	+36.0	18.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	FCS @ Alabama	10–66	-52.9	-44.5	-56.0	3.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Florida International @ Arkansas	20–44	-27.0	-27.5	-24.0	3.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Coastal Carolina @ Army	21–28	+16.7	+1.5	-7.0	23.7
2023	12	New Mexico State @ Auburn	31–10	-16.3	-25.0	+21.0	37.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Michigan State @ Indiana	24–21	-4.3	-3.5	+3.0	7.3
2023	12	Illinois @ Iowa	13–15	-8.6	-3.0	-2.0	6.6
2023	12	Louisiana Tech @ Jacksonville State	17–56	-14.8	-9.0	-39.0	24.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Massachusetts @ Liberty	25–49	-28.3	-26.5	-24.0	4.3
2023	12	Georgia State @ LSU	14–56	-44.9	-32.0	-42.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Michigan @ Maryland	31–24	+27.1	+17.5	+7.0	20.1
2023	12	UTEP @ Middle Tennessee	30–34	-16.5	-8.0	-4.0	12.5
2023	12	Southern Miss @ Mississippi State	20–41	-3.5	-18.5	-21.0	17.5
2023	12	Florida @ Missouri	31–33	-30.1	-12.5	-2.0	28.1
2023	12	Purdue @ Northwestern	15–23	-3.3	-2.5	-8.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Minnesota @ Ohio State	3–37	-36.2	-27.5	-34.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	UL Monroe @ Ole Miss	3–35	-29.8	-36.0	-32.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Rutgers @ Penn State	6–27	-25.0	-19.5	-21.0	4.0
2023	12	Kentucky @ South Carolina	14–17	-8.3	-2.5	-3.0	5.3
2023	12	Georgia @ Tennessee	38–10	+17.9	+9.0	+28.0	10.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	FCS @ Texas A&M	10–38	-38.4	-40.5	-28.0	10.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	FCS @ UConn	3–31	-1.1	-25.5	-28.0	26.9
2023	12	Nebraska @ Wisconsin	17–24	-4.2	-7.0	-7.0	2.8
2023	12	Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky	23–28	-7.3	-11.0	-5.0	2.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Colorado @ Washington State	14–56	+8.8	-4.5	-42.0	50.8

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.