Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14 | Middle Tennessee @ New Mexico State | 31–24 | -7.0 | -3.5 | +7.0 | 14.0 |
| 2025 | 14 | Air Force @ Colorado State | 42–21 | +0.5 | +2.5 | +21.0 | 20.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | Boise State @ Utah State | 25–24 | -6.1 | +1.5 | +1.0 | 7.1 |
| 2025 | 14 | Fresno State @ San José State | 41–14 | +7.7 | +3.5 | +27.0 | 19.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Wyoming @ Hawai'i | 7–27 | -10.7 | -8.5 | -20.0 | 9.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | UNLV @ Nevada | 42–17 | +7.9 | +7.5 | +25.0 | 17.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | San Diego State @ New Mexico | 17–23 | -5.7 | +1.5 | -6.0 | 0.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Arkansas State @ App State | 30–29 | -3.4 | +1.5 | +1.0 | 4.4 |
| 2025 | 14 | James Madison @ Coastal Carolina | 59–10 | +27.1 | +24.0 | +49.0 | 21.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Georgia Southern @ Marshall | 24–19 | -14.2 | -10.5 | +5.0 | 19.2 |
| 2025 | 14 | Georgia State @ Old Dominion | 10–27 | -36.9 | -28.5 | -17.0 | 19.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | UL Monroe @ Louisiana | 27–30 | -17.4 | -11.0 | -3.0 | 14.4 |
| 2025 | 14 | Troy @ Southern Miss | 28–18 | -9.0 | -7.0 | +10.0 | 19.0 |
| 2025 | 14 | South Alabama @ Texas State | 26–49 | -15.2 | -9.5 | -23.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Army @ UTSA | 27–24 | -24.7 | -8.5 | +3.0 | 27.7 |
| 2025 | 14 | Temple @ North Texas | 25–52 | -30.5 | -20.5 | -27.0 | 3.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Navy @ Memphis | 28–17 | -1.4 | -3.5 | +11.0 | 12.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | UAB @ Tulsa | 31–24 | -10.5 | -9.5 | +7.0 | 17.5 |
| 2025 | 14 | Charlotte @ Tulane | 0–27 | -28.2 | -31.0 | -27.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic | 42–3 | -1.3 | +7.0 | +39.0 | 40.3 |
| 2025 | 14 | Rice @ South Florida | 3–52 | -37.0 | -28.5 | -49.0 | 12.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Bowling Green @ Massachusetts | 45–14 | +10.1 | +14.0 | +31.0 | 20.9 |
| 2025 | 14 | Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan | 31–21 | +1.4 | +10.0 | +10.0 | 8.6 |
| 2025 | 14 | Ohio @ Buffalo | 31–26 | +8.1 | +7.0 | +5.0 | 3.1 |
| 2025 | 14 | Kent State @ Northern Illinois | 35–31 | -0.0 | -5.0 | +4.0 | 4.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 14 | Toledo @ Central Michigan | 21–3 | +7.6 | +11.5 | +18.0 | 10.4 |
| 2025 | 14 | Ball State @ Miami (OH) | 24–45 | -15.2 | -16.5 | -21.0 | 5.8 |
| 2025 | 13 | FCS @ Alabama | 0–56 | -50.9 | -50.5 | -56.0 | 5.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | FCS @ Auburn | 17–62 | -42.2 | -26.5 | -45.0 | 2.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Tennessee @ Florida | 31–11 | +11.9 | +3.5 | +20.0 | 8.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Charlotte @ Georgia | 3–35 | -50.8 | -42.5 | -32.0 | 18.8 |
| 2025 | 13 | Western Kentucky @ LSU | 10–13 | -17.8 | -24.5 | -3.0 | 14.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Missouri @ Oklahoma | 6–17 | -4.8 | -4.5 | -11.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Coastal Carolina @ South Carolina | 7–51 | -22.0 | -24.0 | -44.0 | 22.0 |
| 2025 | 13 | Arkansas @ Texas | 37–52 | -5.2 | -8.5 | -15.0 | 9.8 |
| 2025 | 13 | FCS @ Texas A&M | 0–48 | -50.0 | -54.5 | -48.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Kentucky @ Vanderbilt | 17–45 | -9.5 | -7.0 | -28.0 | 18.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Nebraska @ Penn State | 10–37 | -15.5 | -7.0 | -27.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Minnesota vs Northwestern | 35–38 | -5.5 | -4.0 | -3.0 | 2.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | Washington @ UCLA | 48–14 | +13.0 | +10.5 | +34.0 | 21.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | USC @ Oregon | 27–42 | -10.4 | -11.0 | -15.0 | 4.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | Rutgers @ Ohio State | 9–42 | -36.7 | -28.5 | -33.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Michigan State @ Iowa | 17–20 | -25.5 | -17.5 | -3.0 | 22.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | Michigan @ Maryland | 45–20 | +13.9 | +14.0 | +25.0 | 11.1 |
| 2025 | 13 | Illinois @ Wisconsin | 10–27 | -0.0 | +8.5 | -17.0 | 17.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Washington State @ James Madison | 20–24 | -14.2 | -15.5 | -4.0 | 10.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Florida State @ NC State | 11–21 | +6.5 | +6.5 | -10.0 | 16.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | California @ Stanford | 10–31 | -0.9 | +4.5 | -21.0 | 20.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Duke @ North Carolina | 32–25 | -0.1 | +7.0 | +7.0 | 7.1 |
| 2025 | 13 | Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech | 42–28 | +2.5 | -2.5 | +14.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.