Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 12 | Liberty @ Massachusetts | 35–34 | +8.8 | +16.5 | +1.0 | 7.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Louisville @ Stanford | 35–38 | +23.2 | +21.0 | -3.0 | 26.2 |
| 2024 | 12 | Boston College @ SMU | 28–38 | -26.3 | -19.0 | -10.0 | 16.3 |
| 2024 | 12 | Syracuse @ California | 33–25 | -13.1 | -10.5 | +8.0 | 21.1 |
| 2024 | 12 | Clemson @ Pittsburgh | 24–20 | +9.3 | +12.0 | +4.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Wake Forest @ North Carolina | 24–31 | -26.0 | -10.5 | -7.0 | 19.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | Houston @ Arizona | 3–27 | +8.7 | -1.0 | -24.0 | 32.7 |
| 2024 | 12 | Kansas @ BYU | 17–13 | +2.0 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Utah @ Colorado | 24–49 | -15.6 | -13.5 | -25.0 | 9.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Cincinnati @ Iowa State | 17–34 | -2.8 | -7.0 | -17.0 | 14.2 |
| 2024 | 12 | Arizona State @ Kansas State | 24–14 | -5.5 | -7.5 | +10.0 | 15.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Baylor @ West Virginia | 49–35 | +2.4 | +2.0 | +14.0 | 11.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Florida International @ Jacksonville State | 31–34 | -13.7 | -12.5 | -3.0 | 10.7 |
| 2024 | 12 | Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky | 12–7 | -11.8 | -11.5 | +5.0 | 16.8 |
| 2024 | 12 | Sam Houston @ Kennesaw State | 23–17 | +14.7 | +21.0 | +6.0 | 8.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Oregon State @ Air Force | 0–28 | -12.4 | +2.5 | -28.0 | 15.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Boise State @ San José State | 42–21 | +8.4 | +14.5 | +21.0 | 12.6 |
| 2024 | 12 | Wyoming @ Colorado State | 10–24 | -12.1 | -8.5 | -14.0 | 1.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Hawai'i @ Utah State | 10–55 | +8.4 | +2.5 | -45.0 | 53.4 |
| 2024 | 12 | Washington State @ New Mexico | 35–38 | +12.6 | +10.5 | -3.0 | 15.6 |
| 2024 | 12 | San Diego State @ UNLV | 20–41 | -21.5 | -21.5 | -21.0 | 0.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Troy @ Georgia Southern | 28–20 | -7.9 | -7.0 | +8.0 | 15.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | Arkansas State @ Georgia State | 27–20 | -2.9 | -2.5 | +7.0 | 9.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | Coastal Carolina @ Marshall | 19–31 | -11.8 | -7.5 | -12.0 | 0.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | James Madison @ Old Dominion | 35–32 | -0.2 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 3.2 |
| 2024 | 12 | South Alabama @ Louisiana | 24–22 | -8.0 | -6.5 | +2.0 | 10.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | Southern Miss @ Texas State | 3–58 | -33.2 | -27.5 | -55.0 | 21.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | Kent State @ Miami (OH) | 7–34 | -35.3 | -30.5 | -27.0 | 8.3 |
| 2024 | 12 | Ball State @ Buffalo | 48–51 | +2.7 | -3.5 | -3.0 | 5.7 |
| 2024 | 12 | Western Michigan @ Bowling Green | 13–31 | -8.5 | -9.5 | -18.0 | 9.5 |
| 2024 | 12 | Central Michigan @ Toledo | 10–37 | -8.3 | -15.0 | -27.0 | 18.7 |
| 2024 | 12 | Akron @ Northern Illinois | 16–29 | -21.6 | -14.0 | -13.0 | 8.6 |
| 2024 | 12 | Eastern Michigan @ Ohio | 10–35 | -19.5 | -10.5 | -25.0 | 5.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 12 | East Carolina @ Tulsa | 38–31 | +21.4 | +16.5 | +7.0 | 14.4 |
| 2024 | 12 | North Texas @ UTSA | 27–48 | +2.9 | -1.5 | -21.0 | 23.9 |
| 2024 | 12 | UAB @ Memphis | 18–53 | -11.0 | -16.5 | -35.0 | 24.0 |
| 2024 | 12 | South Florida @ Charlotte | 59–24 | -4.3 | -1.5 | +35.0 | 39.3 |
| 2024 | 12 | Florida Atlantic @ Temple | 15–18 | -12.8 | -2.0 | -3.0 | 9.8 |
| 2024 | 12 | Tulane @ Navy | 35–0 | +9.4 | +7.5 | +35.0 | 25.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Alabama @ LSU | 42–13 | -1.2 | +2.5 | +29.0 | 30.2 |
| 2024 | 11 | Georgia @ Ole Miss | 10–28 | -7.2 | +2.0 | -18.0 | 10.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Oklahoma @ Missouri | 23–30 | +1.6 | +3.5 | -7.0 | 8.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Mississippi State @ Tennessee | 14–33 | -25.2 | -26.5 | -19.0 | 6.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Florida @ Texas | 17–49 | -8.7 | -23.0 | -32.0 | 23.3 |
| 2024 | 11 | South Carolina @ Vanderbilt | 28–7 | +12.5 | +6.0 | +21.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Michigan @ Indiana | 15–20 | -29.8 | -14.5 | -5.0 | 24.8 |
| 2024 | 11 | Iowa @ UCLA | 17–20 | +5.8 | +6.5 | -3.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2024 | 11 | Maryland @ Oregon | 18–39 | -33.4 | -24.0 | -21.0 | 12.4 |
| 2024 | 11 | Minnesota @ Rutgers | 19–26 | +14.4 | +6.5 | -7.0 | 21.4 |
| 2024 | 11 | Purdue @ Ohio State | 0–45 | -42.5 | -37.5 | -45.0 | 2.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.