Backtest History

760 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2021	12	Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame	0–55	-29.2	-18.0	-55.0	25.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Virginia @ Pittsburgh	38–48	-19.2	-13.0	-10.0	9.2
2021	12	Illinois @ Iowa	23–33	+1.0	-12.0	-10.0	11.0
2021	12	Minnesota @ Indiana	35–14	+19.6	+7.5	+21.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Michigan @ Maryland	59–18	+24.6	+16.0	+41.0	16.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Michigan State @ Ohio State	7–56	-23.2	-19.5	-49.0	25.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Nebraska @ Wisconsin	28–35	-15.5	-10.0	-7.0	8.5
2021	12	Purdue vs Northwestern	32–14	+16.6	+11.0	+18.0	1.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Rutgers @ Penn State	0–28	-10.5	-14.0	-28.0	17.5
2021	12	UConn @ UCF	17–49	-22.0	-30.0	-32.0	10.0
2021	12	Louisiana @ Liberty	42–14	+1.9	-4.3	+28.0	26.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Massachusetts @ Army	17–33	-56.2	-37.0	-16.0	40.2
2021	12	Baylor @ Kansas State	20–10	-9.1	-2.5	+10.0	19.1
2021	12	Iowa State @ Oklahoma	21–28	-0.8	-3.0	-7.0	6.2
2021	12	Kansas @ TCU	28–31	-11.5	-21.0	-3.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech	23–0	+23.7	+10.0	+23.0	0.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Texas @ West Virginia	23–31	-12.4	-2.3	-8.0	4.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Memphis @ Houston	13–31	-7.3	-9.5	-18.0	10.7
2021	12	SMU @ Cincinnati	14–48	-1.9	-9.8	-34.0	32.1
2021	12	East Carolina @ Navy	38–35	+9.3	+3.5	+3.0	6.3
2021	12	South Florida @ Tulane	14–45	-3.6	-5.5	-31.0	27.4
2021	12	Temple @ Tulsa	10–44	-25.5	-22.0	-34.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)	7–34	-28.5	-17.0	-27.0	1.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan	21–22	-0.0	+6.0	-1.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Toledo @ Ohio	35–23	+10.7	+7.5	+12.0	1.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Northern Illinois @ Buffalo	33–27	+10.6	+1.8	+6.0	4.6
2021	12	Central Michigan @ Ball State	37–17	+7.8	+2.5	+20.0	12.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Kent State @ Akron	38–0	+5.1	+13.5	+38.0	32.9
2021	12	App State @ Troy	45–7	+13.6	+10.0	+38.0	24.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Arkansas State @ Georgia State	20–28	-22.4	-15.5	-8.0	14.4
2021	12	Texas State @ Coastal Carolina	21–35	-28.2	-24.5	-14.0	14.2
2021	12	BYU @ Georgia Southern	34–17	+24.1	+20.0	+17.0	7.1
2021	12	Arizona @ Washington State	18–44	-9.6	-14.8	-26.0	16.4
2021	12	California @ Stanford	41–11	+20.3	+2.5	+30.0	9.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Oregon @ Utah	7–38	-4.1	-3.0	-31.0	26.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Arizona State @ Oregon State	10–24	+1.2	+3.0	-14.0	15.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Washington @ Colorado	17–20	+1.4	+6.5	-3.0	4.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	UCLA @ USC	62–33	+10.6	+3.5	+29.0	18.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Air Force @ Nevada	41–39	+2.0	+1.8	+2.0	0.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	New Mexico @ Boise State	0–37	-31.8	-27.5	-37.0	5.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Colorado State @ Hawai'i	45–50	+2.2	+3.0	-5.0	7.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	12	Wyoming @ Utah State	44–17	-11.8	-5.8	+27.0	38.8
2021	12	San Diego State @ UNLV	28–20	+5.3	+11.0	+8.0	2.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	New Mexico State @ Alabama	3–59	-49.4	-50.3	-56.0	6.6
2021	11	Mississippi State @ Auburn	43–34	-5.1	-5.8	+9.0	14.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	FCS @ Florida	52–70	-26.5	-36.5	-18.0	8.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2021	11	Arkansas @ LSU	16–13	-4.3	+3.0	+3.0	7.3
2021	11	Texas A&M @ Ole Miss	19–29	+10.2	+1.3	-10.0	20.2
2021	11	South Carolina @ Missouri	28–31	+8.7	+0.8	-3.0	11.7
2021	11	Georgia @ Tennessee	41–17	+16.1	+19.5	+24.0	7.9

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.