Backtest History
Loading history…
Loading history…
Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | Northwestern @ Purdue | 9–17 | -10.1 | -17.5 | -8.0 | 2.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Ohio State @ Maryland | 43–30 | +24.8 | +26.3 | +13.0 | 11.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Illinois @ Michigan | 17–19 | -23.8 | -17.0 | -2.0 | 21.8 |
| 2022 | 12 | Indiana @ Michigan State | 39–31 | -10.4 | -12.0 | +8.0 | 18.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Penn State @ Rutgers | 55–10 | +22.5 | +18.5 | +45.0 | 22.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Miami @ Clemson | 10–40 | -14.8 | -19.0 | -30.0 | 15.2 |
| 2022 | 12 | Louisiana @ Florida State | 17–49 | -31.0 | -25.0 | -32.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | NC State @ Louisville | 10–25 | -18.9 | -4.0 | -15.0 | 3.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Georgia Tech @ North Carolina | 21–17 | -19.2 | -21.3 | +4.0 | 23.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Duke @ Pittsburgh | 26–28 | -10.6 | -6.5 | -2.0 | 8.6 |
| 2022 | 12 | Syracuse @ Wake Forest | 35–45 | -8.2 | -9.5 | -10.0 | 1.8 |
| 2022 | 12 | Boise State @ Wyoming | 20–17 | +15.3 | +14.5 | +3.0 | 12.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | Colorado State @ Air Force | 12–24 | -25.1 | -21.5 | -12.0 | 13.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | Fresno State @ Nevada | 41–14 | +23.6 | +22.5 | +27.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | San Diego State @ New Mexico | 34–10 | +25.0 | +14.5 | +24.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | San José State @ Utah State | 31–35 | +3.0 | -1.0 | -4.0 | 7.0 |
| 2022 | 12 | UNLV @ Hawai'i | 25–31 | +11.5 | +11.0 | -6.0 | 17.5 |
| 2022 | 12 | SMU @ Tulane | 24–59 | -5.1 | -3.5 | -35.0 | 29.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | South Florida @ Tulsa | 42–48 | -11.8 | -13.8 | -6.0 | 5.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Houston @ East Carolina | 42–3 | -9.4 | -6.0 | +39.0 | 48.4 |
| 2022 | 12 | Navy @ UCF | 17–14 | -13.1 | -15.3 | +3.0 | 16.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | FCS @ Memphis | 0–59 | -32.7 | -36.0 | -59.0 | 26.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | Cincinnati @ Temple | 23–3 | +5.9 | +17.0 | +20.0 | 14.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | Bowling Green @ Toledo | 42–35 | -22.3 | -14.5 | +7.0 | 29.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | Ohio @ Ball State | 32–18 | +10.3 | +3.5 | +14.0 | 3.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Eastern Michigan @ Kent State | 31–24 | -2.5 | -7.5 | +7.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Western Michigan @ Central Michigan | 12–10 | -12.3 | -10.0 | +2.0 | 14.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | Miami (OH) @ Northern Illinois | 29–23 | -6.2 | -0.5 | +6.0 | 12.2 |
| 2022 | 12 | FCS @ BYU | 26–52 | -30.0 | – | -26.0 | 4.0 |
| 2022 | 12 | Old Dominion @ App State | 14–27 | -16.1 | -16.0 | -13.0 | 3.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | Marshall @ Georgia Southern | 23–10 | +4.8 | +6.0 | +13.0 | 8.2 |
| 2022 | 12 | Georgia State @ James Madison | 40–42 | -5.4 | -10.0 | -2.0 | 3.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | South Alabama @ Southern Miss | 27–20 | +14.5 | +7.5 | +7.0 | 7.5 |
| 2022 | 12 | Arkansas State @ Texas State | 13–16 | -13.2 | -6.0 | -3.0 | 10.2 |
| 2022 | 12 | UL Monroe @ Troy | 16–34 | -8.7 | -15.0 | -18.0 | 9.3 |
| 2022 | 12 | Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte | 21–26 | +0.6 | +2.0 | -5.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | Florida International @ UTEP | 6–40 | -8.9 | -14.0 | -34.0 | 25.1 |
| 2022 | 12 | Florida Atlantic @ Middle Tennessee | 21–49 | +13.8 | +5.5 | -28.0 | 41.8 |
| 2022 | 12 | UTSA @ Rice | 41–7 | +28.4 | +14.0 | +34.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 12 | UAB @ LSU | 10–41 | -4.8 | -15.3 | -31.0 | 26.2 |
| 2022 | 12 | Western Kentucky @ Auburn | 17–41 | +6.5 | -5.0 | -24.0 | 30.5 |
| 2022 | 11 | LSU @ Arkansas | 13–10 | +8.3 | +5.3 | +3.0 | 5.3 |
| 2022 | 11 | Texas A&M @ Auburn | 10–13 | -2.2 | -1.5 | -3.0 | 0.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | South Carolina @ Florida | 6–38 | -11.9 | -8.0 | -32.0 | 20.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Vanderbilt @ Kentucky | 24–21 | -17.3 | -17.0 | +3.0 | 20.3 |
| 2022 | 11 | Alabama @ Ole Miss | 30–24 | +17.3 | +11.0 | +6.0 | 11.3 |
| 2022 | 11 | Georgia @ Mississippi State | 45–19 | +23.1 | +16.3 | +26.0 | 2.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Missouri @ Tennessee | 24–66 | -23.1 | -19.0 | -42.0 | 18.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2022 | 11 | Colorado @ USC | 17–55 | -28.5 | -34.5 | -38.0 | 9.5 |
| 2022 | 11 | Arizona @ UCLA | 34–28 | -22.5 | -20.0 | +6.0 | 28.5 |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.