Backtest History

774 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	12	Utah @ Arizona	18–42	-3.6	-2.5	-24.0	20.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Oregon @ Arizona State	49–13	+25.4	+22.0	+36.0	10.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Washington @ Oregon State	22–20	-9.7	-1.0	+2.0	11.7
2023	12	California @ Stanford	27–15	+3.0	+6.5	+12.0	9.0
2023	12	UCLA @ USC	38–20	-9.5	-5.0	+18.0	27.5
2023	12	Wake Forest @ Notre Dame	7–45	-29.0	-23.5	-38.0	9.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Boston College @ Pittsburgh	16–24	+2.9	-1.8	-8.0	10.9
2023	12	North Carolina @ Clemson	20–31	-9.9	-7.5	-11.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Duke @ Virginia	27–30	-1.2	+3.5	-3.0	1.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	FCS @ Florida State	13–58	-35.5	–	-45.0	9.5
2023	12	Syracuse @ Georgia Tech	22–31	-12.3	-6.0	-9.0	3.3
2023	12	Louisville @ Miami	38–31	+8.0	-1.0	+7.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	NC State @ Virginia Tech	35–28	-1.0	-2.5	+7.0	8.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Oklahoma @ BYU	31–24	+35.5	+24.5	+7.0	28.5
2023	12	Oklahoma State @ Houston	43–30	+6.0	+6.5	+13.0	7.0
2023	12	Texas @ Iowa State	26–16	+2.8	+7.5	+10.0	7.2
2023	12	Kansas State @ Kansas	31–27	+5.2	+7.5	+4.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Baylor @ TCU	17–42	-14.7	-13.0	-25.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	UCF @ Texas Tech	23–24	+10.1	-2.5	-1.0	11.1
2023	12	Cincinnati @ West Virginia	21–42	-4.5	-5.0	-21.0	16.5
2023	12	North Texas @ Tulsa	35–28	+6.5	+2.0	+7.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Tulane @ Florida Atlantic	24–8	+7.4	+9.0	+16.0	8.6
2023	12	Temple @ UAB	24–34	-3.3	-8.0	-10.0	6.7
2023	12	South Florida @ UTSA	21–49	-22.1	-14.5	-28.0	5.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Rice @ Charlotte	28–7	+11.4	+1.0	+21.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	East Carolina @ Navy	0–10	-0.2	-2.5	-10.0	9.8
2023	12	SMU @ Memphis	38–34	+17.1	+9.5	+4.0	13.1
2023	12	Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern	20–17	+5.4	-5.5	+3.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	App State @ James Madison	26–23	-5.1	-10.8	+3.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Texas State @ Arkansas State	31–77	+3.9	+3.3	-46.0	49.9
2023	12	Marshall @ South Alabama	0–28	-17.7	-10.0	-28.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Louisiana @ Troy	24–31	-25.9	-15.5	-7.0	18.9
2023	12	Toledo @ Bowling Green	32–31	+7.7	+10.0	+1.0	6.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois	0–24	+1.3	-4.0	-24.0	25.3
2023	12	Akron @ Eastern Michigan	27–30	-5.5	-3.5	-3.0	2.5
2023	12	Central Michigan @ Ohio	20–34	-16.9	-10.5	-14.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Buffalo @ Miami (OH)	10–23	-10.6	-7.5	-13.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Kent State @ Ball State	3–34	-23.9	-10.5	-31.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Boise State @ Utah State	45–10	+2.1	+5.0	+35.0	32.9
2023	12	Hawai'i @ Wyoming	9–42	-1.0	-13.5	-33.0	32.0
2023	12	Nevada @ Colorado State	20–30	-9.4	-12.5	-10.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	New Mexico @ Fresno State	25–17	-18.5	-22.5	+8.0	26.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	San Diego State @ San José State	13–24	-33.3	-16.5	-11.0	22.3
2023	12	UNLV @ Air Force	31–27	+16.7	-3.0	+4.0	12.7
2023	11	Auburn @ Arkansas	48–10	-2.6	-2.5	+38.0	40.6
2023	11	FCS @ Army	14–17	-17.5	-11.5	-3.0	14.5
2023	11	Ole Miss @ Georgia	17–52	-10.0	-11.0	-35.0	25.0
2023	11	Indiana @ Illinois	45–48	-3.2	-4.5	-3.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Rutgers @ Iowa	0–22	+4.5	-1.0	-22.0	26.5
2023	11	UConn @ James Madison	6–44	-27.9	-25.0	-38.0	10.1 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.