Backtest History
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Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.
| Season | Wk | Matchup | Score | Model | Close | Result | Model err |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 13 | Louisville @ SMU | 6–38 | -18.6 | -4.0 | -32.0 | 13.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Miami @ Virginia Tech | 34–17 | +20.3 | +17.5 | +17.0 | 3.3 |
| 2025 | 13 | Syracuse @ Notre Dame | 7–70 | -42.7 | -36.5 | -63.0 | 20.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | FCS @ Clemson | 10–45 | -41.4 | -41.5 | -35.0 | 6.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Delaware @ Wake Forest | 14–52 | -26.5 | -17.5 | -38.0 | 11.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Baylor @ Arizona | 17–41 | -7.3 | -6.5 | -24.0 | 16.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | BYU @ Cincinnati | 26–14 | +6.4 | +2.5 | +12.0 | 5.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Arizona State @ Colorado | 42–17 | +4.8 | +7.0 | +25.0 | 20.2 |
| 2025 | 13 | TCU @ Houston | 17–14 | -0.6 | +1.5 | +3.0 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | Kansas @ Iowa State | 14–38 | -4.8 | -3.5 | -24.0 | 19.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Oklahoma State @ UCF | 14–17 | -10.3 | -13.5 | -3.0 | 7.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Kansas State @ Utah | 47–51 | -27.1 | -17.5 | -4.0 | 23.1 |
| 2025 | 13 | UConn @ Florida Atlantic | 48–45 | -1.7 | +6.0 | +3.0 | 4.7 |
| 2025 | 13 | Jacksonville State @ Florida International | 21–27 | -4.8 | -2.5 | -6.0 | 1.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Missouri State @ Kennesaw State | 34–41 | -3.4 | -6.5 | -7.0 | 3.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | Liberty @ Louisiana Tech | 28–34 | -2.8 | +1.5 | -6.0 | 3.2 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Sam Houston @ Middle Tennessee | 17–31 | -5.1 | -6.5 | -14.0 | 8.9 |
| 2025 | 13 | New Mexico State @ UTEP | 34–31 | -1.1 | -4.0 | +3.0 | 4.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | New Mexico @ Air Force | 20–3 | +1.5 | +3.5 | +17.0 | 15.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | Colorado State @ Boise State | 21–49 | -19.2 | -17.5 | -28.0 | 8.8 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Utah State @ Fresno State | 28–17 | -4.5 | -1.5 | +11.0 | 15.5 |
| 2025 | 13 | Hawai'i @ UNLV | 10–38 | +2.7 | -2.5 | -28.0 | 30.7 |
| 2025 | 13 | Nevada @ Wyoming | 13–7 | -4.6 | -6.5 | +6.0 | 10.6 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | San José State @ San Diego State | 3–25 | -22.1 | -10.0 | -22.0 | 0.1 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Louisiana @ Arkansas State | 34–30 | -1.0 | -2.5 | +4.0 | 5.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Marshall @ App State | 24–26 | +9.7 | +4.0 | -2.0 | 11.7 |
| 2025 | 13 | Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern | 45–10 | +9.4 | +10.0 | +35.0 | 25.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | Southern Miss @ South Alabama | 35–42 | +0.5 | +2.5 | -7.0 | 7.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | UL Monroe @ Texas State | 14–31 | -32.8 | -20.5 | -17.0 | 15.8 |
| 2025 | 13 | Georgia State @ Troy | 19–31 | -5.8 | -9.5 | -12.0 | 6.2 |
| 2025 | 13 | South Florida @ UAB | 48–18 | +24.7 | +21.5 | +30.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Tulsa @ Army | 26–25 | -4.3 | -10.0 | +1.0 | 5.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | East Carolina @ UTSA | 24–58 | +5.1 | +2.0 | -34.0 | 39.1 |
| 2025 | 13 | North Texas @ Rice | 56–24 | +21.3 | +18.5 | +32.0 | 10.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Tulane @ Temple | 37–13 | +9.7 | +7.5 | +24.0 | 14.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Akron @ Bowling Green | 19–16 | +2.1 | -2.5 | +3.0 | 0.9 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Massachusetts @ Ohio | 14–42 | -39.6 | -33.5 | -28.0 | 11.6 |
| 2025 | 13 | Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois | 35–19 | +7.5 | +7.0 | +16.0 | 8.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Miami (OH) @ Buffalo | 37–20 | +7.3 | +2.5 | +17.0 | 9.7 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Central Michigan @ Kent State | 28–16 | +14.0 | +7.5 | +12.0 | 2.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 13 | Ball State @ Toledo | 9–38 | -36.3 | -29.5 | -29.0 | 7.3 |
| 2025 | 12 | Oklahoma @ Alabama | 23–21 | -11.0 | -6.5 | +2.0 | 13.0 |
| 2025 | 12 | Texas @ Georgia | 10–35 | -11.7 | -3.5 | -25.0 | 13.3 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | FCS @ Kentucky | 10–42 | -45.7 | -22.5 | -32.0 | 13.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | Arkansas @ LSU | 22–23 | -4.9 | -4.0 | -1.0 | 3.9 |
| 2025 | 12 | Florida @ Ole Miss | 24–34 | -20.9 | -10.5 | -10.0 | 10.9 |
| 2025 | 12 | Mississippi State @ Missouri | 27–49 | -12.5 | -7.5 | -22.0 | 9.5 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | New Mexico State @ Tennessee | 9–42 | -34.0 | -41.5 | -33.0 | 1.0 (model closer than the closing line) |
| 2025 | 12 | South Carolina @ Texas A&M | 30–31 | -26.7 | -16.5 | -1.0 | 25.7 |
| 2025 | 12 | UCLA @ Ohio State | 10–48 | -33.6 | -33.0 | -38.0 | 4.4 (model closer than the closing line) |
Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.