Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	12	Michigan @ Maryland	31–24	+27.1	+17.5	+7.0	20.1
2023	12	UTEP @ Middle Tennessee	30–34	-16.5	-8.0	-4.0	12.5
2023	12	Southern Miss @ Mississippi State	20–41	-3.5	-18.5	-21.0	17.5
2023	12	Florida @ Missouri	31–33	-30.1	-12.5	-2.0	28.1
2023	12	Purdue @ Northwestern	15–23	-3.3	-2.5	-8.0	4.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Minnesota @ Ohio State	3–37	-36.2	-27.5	-34.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	UL Monroe @ Ole Miss	3–35	-29.8	-36.0	-32.0	2.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Rutgers @ Penn State	6–27	-25.0	-19.5	-21.0	4.0
2023	12	Kentucky @ South Carolina	14–17	-8.3	-2.5	-3.0	5.3
2023	12	Georgia @ Tennessee	38–10	+17.9	+9.0	+28.0	10.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	FCS @ Texas A&M	10–38	-38.4	-40.5	-28.0	10.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	FCS @ UConn	3–31	-1.1	-25.5	-28.0	26.9
2023	12	Nebraska @ Wisconsin	17–24	-4.2	-7.0	-7.0	2.8
2023	12	Sam Houston @ Western Kentucky	23–28	-7.3	-11.0	-5.0	2.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Colorado @ Washington State	14–56	+8.8	-4.5	-42.0	50.8
2023	12	Utah @ Arizona	18–42	-3.6	-2.5	-24.0	20.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Oregon @ Arizona State	49–13	+25.4	+22.0	+36.0	10.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Washington @ Oregon State	22–20	-9.7	-1.0	+2.0	11.7
2023	12	California @ Stanford	27–15	+3.0	+6.5	+12.0	9.0
2023	12	UCLA @ USC	38–20	-9.5	-5.0	+18.0	27.5
2023	12	Wake Forest @ Notre Dame	7–45	-29.0	-23.5	-38.0	9.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Boston College @ Pittsburgh	16–24	+2.9	-1.8	-8.0	10.9
2023	12	North Carolina @ Clemson	20–31	-9.9	-7.5	-11.0	1.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Duke @ Virginia	27–30	-1.2	+3.5	-3.0	1.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	FCS @ Florida State	13–58	-35.5	–	-45.0	9.5
2023	12	Syracuse @ Georgia Tech	22–31	-12.3	-6.0	-9.0	3.3
2023	12	Louisville @ Miami	38–31	+8.0	-1.0	+7.0	1.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	NC State @ Virginia Tech	35–28	-1.0	-2.5	+7.0	8.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Oklahoma @ BYU	31–24	+35.5	+24.5	+7.0	28.5
2023	12	Oklahoma State @ Houston	43–30	+6.0	+6.5	+13.0	7.0
2023	12	Texas @ Iowa State	26–16	+2.8	+7.5	+10.0	7.2
2023	12	Kansas State @ Kansas	31–27	+5.2	+7.5	+4.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Baylor @ TCU	17–42	-14.7	-13.0	-25.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	UCF @ Texas Tech	23–24	+10.1	-2.5	-1.0	11.1
2023	12	Cincinnati @ West Virginia	21–42	-4.5	-5.0	-21.0	16.5
2023	12	North Texas @ Tulsa	35–28	+6.5	+2.0	+7.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Tulane @ Florida Atlantic	24–8	+7.4	+9.0	+16.0	8.6
2023	12	Temple @ UAB	24–34	-3.3	-8.0	-10.0	6.7
2023	12	South Florida @ UTSA	21–49	-22.1	-14.5	-28.0	5.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Rice @ Charlotte	28–7	+11.4	+1.0	+21.0	9.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	East Carolina @ Navy	0–10	-0.2	-2.5	-10.0	9.8
2023	12	SMU @ Memphis	38–34	+17.1	+9.5	+4.0	13.1
2023	12	Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern	20–17	+5.4	-5.5	+3.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	App State @ James Madison	26–23	-5.1	-10.8	+3.0	8.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Texas State @ Arkansas State	31–77	+3.9	+3.3	-46.0	49.9
2023	12	Marshall @ South Alabama	0–28	-17.7	-10.0	-28.0	10.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Louisiana @ Troy	24–31	-25.9	-15.5	-7.0	18.9
2023	12	Toledo @ Bowling Green	32–31	+7.7	+10.0	+1.0	6.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois	0–24	+1.3	-4.0	-24.0	25.3
2023	12	Akron @ Eastern Michigan	27–30	-5.5	-3.5	-3.0	2.5

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.