Backtest History

3859 graded games

Every graded prediction from the frozen walk-forward backtest, next to the closing spread and the final margin. Backtest seasons are historical stand-ins, not live results. Lines are quoted for the home team.

CFB backtest history
Season	Wk	Matchup	Score	Model	Close	Result	Model err
2023	12	Central Michigan @ Ohio	20–34	-16.9	-10.5	-14.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Buffalo @ Miami (OH)	10–23	-10.6	-7.5	-13.0	2.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Kent State @ Ball State	3–34	-23.9	-10.5	-31.0	7.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	Boise State @ Utah State	45–10	+2.1	+5.0	+35.0	32.9
2023	12	Hawai'i @ Wyoming	9–42	-1.0	-13.5	-33.0	32.0
2023	12	Nevada @ Colorado State	20–30	-9.4	-12.5	-10.0	0.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	New Mexico @ Fresno State	25–17	-18.5	-22.5	+8.0	26.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	12	San Diego State @ San José State	13–24	-33.3	-16.5	-11.0	22.3
2023	12	UNLV @ Air Force	31–27	+16.7	-3.0	+4.0	12.7
2023	11	Auburn @ Arkansas	48–10	-2.6	-2.5	+38.0	40.6
2023	11	FCS @ Army	14–17	-17.5	-11.5	-3.0	14.5
2023	11	Ole Miss @ Georgia	17–52	-10.0	-11.0	-35.0	25.0
2023	11	Indiana @ Illinois	45–48	-3.2	-4.5	-3.0	0.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Rutgers @ Iowa	0–22	+4.5	-1.0	-22.0	26.5
2023	11	UConn @ James Madison	6–44	-27.9	-25.0	-38.0	10.1 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Alabama @ Kentucky	49–21	+14.0	+10.5	+28.0	14.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Sam Houston @ Louisiana Tech	42–27	-12.6	-8.5	+15.0	27.6
2023	11	Old Dominion @ Liberty	10–38	-11.4	-13.5	-28.0	16.6
2023	11	Florida @ LSU	35–52	-22.9	-16.0	-17.0	5.9
2023	11	Florida International @ Middle Tennessee	6–40	-16.6	-10.5	-34.0	17.4 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Tennessee @ Missouri	7–36	+0.5	+2.0	-29.0	29.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Maryland @ Nebraska	13–10	-9.1	+1.5	+3.0	12.1
2023	11	Michigan State @ Ohio State	3–38	-34.5	-32.0	-35.0	0.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Michigan @ Penn State	24–15	+5.0	+4.5	+9.0	4.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Minnesota @ Purdue	30–49	-2.0	+1.5	-19.0	17.0 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	6–47	-14.4	-13.5	-41.0	26.6 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Mississippi State @ Texas A&M	10–51	-22.7	-16.5	-41.0	18.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Northwestern @ Wisconsin	24–10	-11.3	-12.0	+14.0	25.3 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	New Mexico State @ Western Kentucky	38–29	-1.7	-5.0	+9.0	10.7 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Washington State @ California	39–42	-1.8	-1.5	-3.0	1.2 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Arizona @ Colorado	34–31	+18.4	+8.0	+3.0	15.4
2023	11	USC @ Oregon	27–36	-29.4	-16.5	-9.0	20.4
2023	11	Stanford @ Oregon State	17–62	-23.2	-21.5	-45.0	21.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Arizona State @ UCLA	17–7	-21.9	-14.0	+10.0	31.9
2023	11	Utah @ Washington	28–35	+0.4	-9.5	-7.0	7.4
2023	11	Virginia @ Louisville	24–31	-31.5	-20.0	-7.0	24.5
2023	11	Virginia Tech @ Boston College	48–22	-4.6	+2.5	+26.0	30.6
2023	11	Georgia Tech @ Clemson	21–42	-2.3	-15.5	-21.0	18.7
2023	11	Duke @ North Carolina	45–47	-11.2	-10.0	-2.0	9.2
2023	11	Miami @ Florida State	20–27	-21.7	-14.5	-7.0	14.7
2023	11	NC State @ Wake Forest	26–6	+8.2	+2.0	+20.0	11.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Pittsburgh vs Syracuse	13–28	+9.4	+3.0	-15.0	24.4
2023	11	Iowa State @ BYU	45–13	+11.5	+7.5	+32.0	20.5 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Cincinnati @ Houston	24–14	-3.2	-3.0	+10.0	13.2
2023	11	Texas Tech @ Kansas	16–13	-17.8	-3.5	+3.0	20.8
2023	11	Baylor @ Kansas State	25–59	-31.1	-20.5	-34.0	2.9 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	West Virginia @ Oklahoma	20–59	-6.6	-13.0	-39.0	32.4
2023	11	Texas @ TCU	29–26	+11.8	+12.5	+3.0	8.8 (model closer than the closing line)
2023	11	Oklahoma State @ UCF	3–45	+7.7	+2.5	-42.0	49.7
2023	11	Tulsa @ Tulane	22–24	-24.4	-24.5	-2.0	22.4 (model closer than the closing line)

Model and Close are home lines; Result is the final margin on the same axis. Model err is the absolute miss of the model's margin, shown green when the model was closer than the closing line.